Trump's Resurgence：Causes, background, and impact

On March 5th, former U.S. President Donald Trump, attempting a comeback for the presidential race, secured the support of the majority of Republican voters in the "Super Tuesday" primaries. With victories in 23 states, including the previously decided 8 states, Trump's dominance is evident. His primary rival, rising Republican star and political figure Nikki Haley, lags behind, winning only in Washington, D.C., and Vermont, posing minimal challenge to Trump's overall lead. Another formidable contender, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, had already withdrawn from the race and shifted his support to Trump.

On March 6, Nikki Haley announced her withdrawal. Trump is poised to clinch the Republican nomination and likely face off against Biden in this year's presidential election. Polls from CNN, NBC, and others have frequently shown Trump leading Biden, suggesting a strong possibility of defeating Biden and reclaiming the presidency.

Why has Trump made such a strong comeback? Why does he enjoy overwhelming support among Republican voters? Why is Biden's approval rating lower than Trump's, who was defeated in the 2020 election? What would a Trump victory mean for the United States and the world?

Trump is one of the most controversial political figures in the world today and one of the most uniquely individualistic former U.S. Presidents in history. Before the 2016 election, few believed he could win the presidency. However, in December 2016, Trump defied expectations by defeating Hillary Clinton to become the 45th President of the United States.

Trump's tenure as president, as well as his actions before his election and after leaving office in 2021, have been heavily criticized for numerous controversial statements and actions. These range from spreading falsehoods about Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton being "corrupt" and "traitorous," to claiming that disinfectant could treat COVID-19, appointing far-right conservatives to high office, alienating Western allies, withdrawing from international bodies, and inciting supporters to attack the U.S. Capitol, causing the January 6th riots.

Yet, Trump has also garnered strong support from American conservative Christians, white supremacists, extreme nationalists, extreme libertarians, laissez-faire economists, and right-wing populists. Regardless of Trump's personal conduct or his controversial remarks, these groups steadfastly support him, often favoring him precisely because of his "politically incorrect" statements. Trump's policies and stance align closely with the demands of these predominantly right-wing conservative groups.

The United States is a country of freedom and openness, yet it is also deeply rooted in conservatism. From its pioneering history to its highly competitive development process, and the dominance of white power structures and the role of religious beliefs in founding and maintaining social order, the U.S. has cultivated a strong conservative atmosphere.

Throughout the 20th century, conservative America faced several waves of progressivism and diversification, such as the politics of Roosevelt in the 1930s, the civil rights movement and the "hippie" movement in the 1960s. However, religious and racial conservatism has remained entrenched, with significant pushbacks, such as the Reagan era in the 1980s.

From 2008 to 2016, another wave of progressivism represented by Obama and Hillary swept across America, causing significant discontent among conservatives. Traditional conservative figures like McCain and Romney, who presented a "gentlemanly" image, were unable to defeat progressive figures like Obama and Hillary. Thus, Trump, with his outspoken, unique personality and anti-establishment stance, was propelled by conservatives to the forefront, winning the 2016 election through unconventional and ruthless tactics.

Eight years on, despite changes in the U.S. and global political landscape, the base and demands of American conservatives have remained stable. Trump's approval ratings have been relatively stable, with about 40% of adult citizens in the U.S. strongly supporting him, forming the basis for a possible reelection.

Republican rising stars Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, despite their impressive political records, lack Trump's unbridled personality and controversial charisma, as well as his widespread fame both in the U.S. and globally. Their political stances either align with Trump's or fail to satisfy both moderate and extreme voters, leaving them unable to challenge Trump effectively.

Biden, Trump's real opponent and the current president, faces even greater challenges. Biden's four-year tenure has seen commendable achievements in both domestic and foreign affairs. The economy has stabilized, unemployment rates have dropped, alliances damaged by Trump have been restored, and significant support has been provided to Ukraine against Russian aggression. Biden has attempted to rebuild a more inclusive and less extreme American politics with a moderate and balanced approach.

However, the conflict between Israel and Palestine in October last year, Israel's attacks on Gaza, and the Biden administration's military support for Israel and tacit approval of the humanitarian disaster in Gaza have led to significant loss of support from Arab Americans, American Muslims, and left-wing anti-war activists. Despite being relatively less supportive of Israel and more sympathetic to Palestinians compared to Trump and the Republican Party, Biden’s ambiguous stance on Israel has angered those in the U.S. who support Palestine. They would rather abstain from voting than support Biden.

This presents an opportunity for Trump to defeat Biden. Trump and the Republican Party are staunch supporters of Israel, and Trump's already supportive base is unlikely to fracture. This is also the main reason why recent polls show Trump's support significantly surpassing Biden's.

If the situation between Palestine and Israel remains as it is, and the Biden administration does not actively prevent Israel's attacks on civilians in Gaza, continuing to provide military aid to Israel, then Biden is certain to lose many votes from Muslims and leftists, making it likely for Trump to win the election at the end of this year.

Also, Biden's advanced age and worrisome health negatively impacted Biden's and the Democrats' electability. Trump, though equally old, is four years younger than Biden and in better health than Biden. This in turn increases Trump's chances of winning.

In my view, if Trump is re-elected, it will be detrimental for both the United States and the world. With Trump and the conservative Republicans in power, they will inevitably push for a religious conservatism and white supremacist agenda, further tearing apart an already highly divided American society and intensifying domestic conflicts.

In terms of foreign policy, Trump's preference for social Darwinism, pragmatism, and isolationist policies will lead the world to become more like a jungle, giving rise to nationalists and extreme sectarian ideologues. The Western world will become more divided. Trump's refusal to support Ukraine will also cause Ukraine, already suffering from the war with Russia, to endure further damage.

However, whether Trump can defeat Biden is still uncertain and depends on the developments in the coming months. Trump is entangled in personal scandals, including incitement of riot, sexual assault, and abuse of power cases, which are not yet resolved, and Colorado  has even revoked his eligibility to run for public office(Though overturned by the Supreme Court, Trump regains the right to be run for president). If Trump is convicted and imprisoned in the future, whether he can still run normally, and even if elected, whether he can perform his duties, is highly doubtful.

Moreover, according to recent results of special elections for the Federal House of Representatives, the Democratic Party achieved an unexpected victory. This may indicate a strong tilt of the American middle voters towards the Democratic Party. If this trend continues into the general election, and middle voters vote for Biden, it could offset the impact of extreme leftists and some minorities abstaining from voting for Biden. Additionally, right-wing individuals who are anti-Russia and pro-Ukraine might abandon Trump due to his pro-Russia stance and turn to Biden, who is tough on Russia and actively supports Ukraine. Thus, Biden could regain the support lost over the Palestine-Israel issue, and Trump might not necessarily defeat Biden.

In summary, it is still uncertain who will win the U.S. presidential election this year. However, Trump's strong comeback and long-term firm support among some Americans are worth serious study and reflection by all sectors, to explore the roots of populism, anti-intellectualism, and extremism, and find solutions. The social elite should understand the real society and public sentiment of the grassroots, care for the general public, rather than being out of touch and alienated from the people, intoxicated in the "liberal bubble" of the ivory tower. Only in this way can the manipulation of public opinion and social chaos by extremists and anti-intellectuals be avoided. This is not only advice for the American elite but also a warning for the establishment in countries around the world.

Conversely, the American public should understand that populism and extremism can only bring temporary satisfaction, not long-term blessings. For the right-wing public, it should be understood that the foundation of America's strength and development lies in openness, inclusiveness, valuing science and innovation, and actively participating in international affairs, not in isolation and ignorance. For the left-wing and minorities, they should not abandon support for the moderate middle due to momentary displeasure and individual policies, as this will only lead to forces that are more detrimental to vulnerable groups and the Palestinians coming to power. Progressives and minorities in the U.S., let's not forget the tragic precedent of abstaining from the 2016 election to "teach Hillary a lesson," only to lead to Trump's rise to power.Only "holding on" and gradual change are realistic and effective strategies.

The U.S. presidential election not only determines the direction of the United States but also greatly affects the world. Hopefully, American politics can gradually move away from extremism and zero-sum games, embark on a healthy development path, once again become a benchmark and beacon for world politics, and continue to play a positive and beneficial role in promoting international peace and democracy.