Yoon Seok-yeol's visit to the United States and the historical context and practical reasons of South Korea's diplomatic turn

The Historical Context and Real Motives of South Korea's Diplomatic Turn

    In the past week, South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol visited the United States, held meetings with US President Biden, gave a speech in Congress, and reached a series of important agreements.  During his speech in Congress, Yoon Seok-yeol publicly praised the achievements of the US military in defending South Korea during the Korean War, and specifically mentioned the historical plot of the US Marine Division 1 "miraculously breaking through the encirclement of 120,000 Chinese troops" in the Battle of Changjin Lake.  Yoon Seok-yeol's words are not just talking about history, but expressing the realistic position of the United States among the two superpowers of China and the United States.

     In the subsequent US-ROK summit talks, the Yoon  administration and the Biden administration reached a series of agreements, such as the regular deployment of nuclear submarines in South Korea by the United States, strengthening military and intelligence exchanges between the US, South Korea and Japan, and maintaining a consistent position on the Ukraine issue.  This has led to South Korea's full diplomatic shift towards the Western camp led by the United States.  The strengthening of the ROK-US alliance is nominally aimed at dealing with North Korea, but its implied (or even semi-expressed) targets of confrontation obviously include China and Russia.

     Since the 1990s to the present, South Korea has long practiced a diplomatic stance in which China and the U.S. are both in the right and left, and relatively neutral in the Western and non-Western camps.  Yoon Seok-yeol's move obviously overturned this diplomatic tradition, or returned to the position of the South Korean military government during the Cold War, which was pro-US, pro-Japanese, and confronting North Korea and China.

     So, why has there been such a drastic change in stance in South Korea?  What are the changes and motivations for South Korea's stance on China, the United States, Japan and other foreign relations?  What impact will South Korea's diplomatic turn now have on South Korea itself, the United States, Japan, Northeast Asia and the world situation?

      After Japan surrendered in 1945, the Korean peninsula was split in two and a war broke out in 1950-1953 that killed millions.  As the same nation, North Korea and South Korea have become victims of the confrontation between the two camps of the United States and the Soviet Union.  South Korea was an ally of the United States in Asia during the Cold War.  Japan, which is also an ally of the United States and a member of the Western camp, is also an important ally of South Korea.  China and the Soviet Union, allies of the "Democratic People's Republic of Korea", are naturally South Korea's enemies.

      From the late 1980s to the early 1990s, with the relaxation of the relationship between the two camps and the end of the Cold War, South Korea gradually improved its relations with China and the Soviet Union (and its successor, Russia).  The opening of South Korea's democratization has also allowed the left-wing progressive forces who are relatively close to North Korea and China and dislike Japan and the United States to replace the right-wing military government.  South Korea's foreign policy has also changed from being "one-sided" on the side of the United States and Japan, to not only maintaining the South Korea-US military alliance, South Korea-Japan economic integration, but also vigorously promoting friendly relations with China, and releasing great goodwill to North Korea in the north.  This was most evident during the Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations.

    While right-wing conservative politicians Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye were in power, although they took a tough and hostile attitude towards North Korea and strengthened relations with the United States and Japan, they still maintained a friendly attitude towards China and actively promoted South Korea.  in exchange.  This is largely due to the rapid economic development and huge size of China, which is an extremely important economic and trade partner for South Korea.  In addition, South Korea also hopes that China will exert its influence on North Korea to curb North Korea's attempts to develop nuclear weapons and missiles and invade South Korea.

     South Korea has maintained friendship with China in recent years, and there are more long-standing historical reasons.  The Korean peninsula has long been influenced by the extensive and profound Chinese culture. For example, the peninsula has long used Chinese characters to write its own language (it was gradually abolished in recent decades);  Customs, interpersonal relationships and daily life also imitated the civilization of the Central Plains.  In the Ming Dynasty, the Ming Dynasty also sent troops to help the Joseon Lee Dynasty fight against the Japanese invasion (ie, the Imjin Patriotic War) without asking for anything in return.  All these have made many people in South Korea have a strong "pro-China complex".

      On the contrary, because Japan has repeatedly invaded the peninsula in history and carried out cruel massacres, plunders, and colonial rule on the peninsula, most Koreans hate Japan in their hearts, and cooperation with Japan is only a last resort for economic development and confrontation with North Korea.  expedient.  As for another ally, the United States, South Koreans don't have strong aversion to it, but their cultural relations are quite alienated, and Koreans are unwilling to be dominated by a single hegemonic country.

     Therefore, many people in South Korea, from officials to civilians, hope to get close to China, alienate Japan, reduce dependence on the United States, and implement a relatively balanced diplomacy.  This is also the basis of public opinion for South Korea's friendly policy towards China after democratization.

     So why is South Korea's diplomacy turning again now, apparently abandoning its friendly policy towards China, and re-strengthening relations with the United States and Japan?

      On the one hand, this is of course due to the changes in South Korea’s domestic political arena, that is, the defeat of the left-wing forces friendly to China in the presidential election, and the power of the right-wing forces close to the United States and Japan; on the other hand, it is South Korea’s friendly policy towards China.  It did not bring enough reciprocal goodwill and corresponding rewards from China, and it was caused by some deeper contradictions and confrontations between South Korea and China.

      As mentioned earlier, one of the purposes of South Korea's goodwill towards China is to hope that China will restrain North Korea and prevent its nuclear weapons and missile development from threatening South Korea's security.  However, in the past two decades, North Korea has insisted on carrying out nuclear tests and missile launches, and provoked South Korea by causing bloodshed in the border area, and China has failed to stop it.  The "Six-Party Talks" led by China lasted for many years and conducted multiple rounds of negotiations, but ultimately ended without a problem.  Other measures that China has participated in to mediate inter-Korean relations and resolve the North Korean nuclear issue have had no real effect, and have even fueled North Korea's nuclear development and other arms activities.  In fact, China has already lost its binding force on North Korea, and has no intention of taking stronger and fundamental measures to correct North Korea's perverse actions.

     The entry of THAAD into South Korea at the end of Park Geun-hye's administration indicates that South Korea no longer expects China to solve the North Korean nuclear issue, and even gradually treats China as an imaginary enemy allied with North Korea and hostile to South Korea.  And China's acquiescence to the facts after a strong protest has further empowered South Korea's anti-China, pro-American and pro-Japanese forces.  Although Park Geun-hye stepped down after the "Girlfriends Incident" and the pro-China Moon Jae-in came to power, THAAD was still deployed in South Korea.

     In addition, both progressives and conservatives expect the reunification of the Korean peninsula led by South Korea.  They also hope that China can help reunify the peninsula.  However, for various reasons, China is not willing to promote the reunification of the peninsula.  On the contrary, China has always supported the Kim regime in the northern part of the peninsula to maintain its rule and keep the peninsula divided.  This makes all factions in South Korea dissatisfied with China.

     In terms of relations with Japan, China is not as fiercely anti-Japanese as the progressives in South Korea. On the contrary, it is unwilling to be truly hostile to Japan due to interest issues.  For example, South Korea was enthusiastic about the co-production of a film about ancient and modern cooperation against Japanese aggression, but China was reluctant to show strong anti-Japanese sentiments in the film due to concerns about Sino-Japanese relations, so related shooting was put on hold for a long time.  On other issues related to Japan, such as forced recruitment of "comfort women" and forced labor, China also cares more about the feelings of Japan than South Korea.  This made South Korea's anti-Japanese and pro-China forces quite cold, and no longer had the enthusiasm it once had on cooperation with China.

    The more fundamental reason for the unsustainable friendly relations between South Korea and China is the differences in the political systems of the two countries and the political changes in China in recent years.  South Korea has gradually embarked on the road of democratization since the late 1980s, and the degree of social freedom and freedom of speech, as well as the level of national human rights awareness and rights protection have also increased day by day.  But China's transition from the official to the private sector is another picture.

     This makes South Korea and China have huge differences in terms of official ideology and national values, and they are mutually exclusive.  In the eyes of Koreans, today's China is no longer like the Han, Tang, Song and Ming dynasties of the Central Plains that spread civilization in all directions, but more like the Mongol Yuan and Manchu Qing after the "Hua Yi metamorphosis".

     In recent years, China's political situation has become increasingly difficult to be optimistic, political reform has stagnated, and society has become more closed.  In terms of foreign policy, it is often irrational and unreasonable.  This has made many countries, including South Korea, feel dissatisfied and worried, and believe that China is not a reliable partner for cooperation.

     It is precisely because of this that even Moon Jae-in, who is pro-China, cannot reverse the deteriorating trend of South Korea-China relations.  On the other hand, Yoon Seok-yeol, who is on the right, decided to make a complete turn, which is completely reasonable.  Yoon Seok-yeol's emphasis on defending "liberal and democratic values" in his speech to the US Congress also publicly explained the root cause of South Korea's pro-US and alienation of China.

     However, China's political system, domestic and foreign policies, and national values ​​are obviously not likely to change in the short to medium term, which means that it will be difficult for China-South Korea relations to improve for a long time in the future.  It is a foregone conclusion that South Korea will abandon its pro-China line and balanced diplomacy, become a firm member of the US-Japan-South Korea alliance, and adopt a confrontational attitude towards North Korea and China.

      In this regard, the author is very sorry.  China and the Korean Peninsula have had close exchanges since ancient times, and the friendship between the two nations has been profound and long-lasting.  Although China and South Korea used to be hostile, it was not the wishes of the majority of the people of the two countries, but many unavoidable internal and external reasons.  Both countries are nation-states liberated from Japan’s cruel colonial rule, and both are deeply invaded by the hegemony of the United States and the Soviet Union, and both have experienced national tragedies in which compatriots were killed and separated. They should have cooperated to eliminate the colonial haze and the remnants of the empire.  Instead of embarking on the path of hostility.  The extensive and close exchanges between China and South Korea since the 1990s have proved the great potential of cooperation between the two countries and their peoples.  Now that the relationship between China and South Korea has turned cold again, the responsibility does not lie with the people.

     The author believes that the current situation is only temporary (even if it will last for a long time). In the future, China and South Korea will be able to rebuild their friendship, jointly build the prosperity of Northeast Asia, and become a beneficial force to promote world peace and democracy.