中左翼社会民主主义者；希望为没有话语权的边缘人群发声者；致力于改善民权民生，做些实事
Anomalies after the "Arab Spring": Tunisia's Difficult Road to Democratic Transition and Crisis under Peace
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Anomalies after the "Arab Spring": Tunisia's Difficult Road to Democratic Transition and Crisis under Peace
(3) The outbreak of the "Jasmine Revolution" and the rapid collapse of the Ben Ali regime 8
(4) The chaos after the revolution and the appearance of various political forces 9
(5) The establishment of the transitional government and the election of the Constituent Assembly 11
(8) Contest and compromise between secularism and religion 16
(10) The latest changes in Tunisian politics and the rise of secular conservatism 20
(12) The future of Tunisia, the Middle East and China 27
At the end of December 2010, with Tunisian peddler Mohamed Bouazizi self-immolated in protest of urban management insults as the trigger, people’s dissatisfaction with authoritarian governments in the pan-Middle East quickly turned into political protests. In just one year, large-scale demonstrations, strikes, riots, and even armed conflicts broke out in countries in West Asia and North Africa like dominoes. Some demanded government reform, while others aimed at overthrowing the regime at that time. ultimate goal. Since this movement was initiated by people mainly in the Arab region, and its public demands include democratization, liberalization, social justice, anti-dictatorship, anti-corruption and other goals that are in line with universal values, it was dubbed the "Arab Spring". good name.
But the good times don't last long. The "spring" of various countries has not allowed the "everything" of universal civilization such as democracy, freedom, and the rule of law to grow, and the "Arabian winter" has ushered in the ice. Specifically, there are the following situations: Category A: People’s resistance was suppressed by the government early on, such as Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. In the midst of war, religious extremist forces are growing, and peace and democracy are far away, such as Syria, Libya, and Yemen; Category C: Civilian resistance has not brought about major changes in politics and society, basically maintaining the status quo or only minor changes, such as Algeria , Kuwait, Iraq, Morocco, Oman; Category D: after the victory of the democratic movement, the composition of the democratic regime is complex, Islamic conservative forces once entered the power center, and the military government has made a comeback, such as Egypt. Without exception, the democratization process in these countries died prematurely or did not start at all. The only difference is the timing of the failure. However, after 2014, the people's movements in the above countries have basically fallen into their own quagmire, and the spring of revolution has long gone.
What is even more worrisome is that Islamic conservatism and fundamentalism have taken control of the movement under the guise of "overthrowing autocracy" and "realizing democracy," trying to use "democracy and freedom" as a trendy package to erode the relatively secular status of some countries in the Middle East. Political and economic system, ideology and social style. The secular and progressive democratic forces are rapidly marginalized under the joint pressure of religious conservative forces such as the "Muslim Brotherhood" and military groups. In other words, the "Arab Spring", which originally pursued freedom, democracy, equality and fraternity, has been diverted in most countries, and has set off a turbulent wave of the resurgence of religious conservative forces, as well as power struggles between religious forces and military groups, and the original intention of the movement and the expectations of the international community.
However, in the adversity of spring and winter, there is a country that has successfully realized democratic transformation in a relatively peaceful way, and is developing towards constitutional democracy and secularization. Into the control of the military group. It is the place where the "Arab Spring" started - Tunisia. The country's peaceful transformation has been praised by the international community, and the "Quartet du dialogue national", composed of the main forces involved in Tunisia's democratization, also won the 2015 Nobel Peace Prize.
However, more than nine years have passed since the fall of the Ben Ali regime in 2011, and the transformation and development of Tunisia have not been smooth. Although Tunisia is peaceful and democratic compared to other countries that have returned to autocracy, fallen into chaos, and have religious forces or military governments controlling power, Tunisia still has serious internal and external troubles. Whether it is the construction and implementation of the democratic constitutional system and the rule of law system, or the economic development and employment situation, as well as the dispute between religion and secularism in the ideological field, as well as the future direction and prospects of the country, Tunisia is facing difficulties in many aspects. Tunisia's economic and political crises have emerged from time to time, and there are even signs of "backtracking". All this has cast a heavy shadow over the democratization model country that was once praised internationally.
So, what is the historical background and realistic motivation of the Tunisian revolution? What process of change has the republic undergone? What efforts have been made to achieve relatively peaceful transition, political coordination, and secular democratization? What specific crises and challenges are you facing in the transition? What are the successes and failures of the nearly ten-year transformation? What will be the future fate of this country located on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea where Europe and Africa meet? What kind of enlightenment does its transformation process have for China?
(1) The glory of antiquity, the baptism of colonization, and the modernization under autocracy: the complex historical background of Tunisia
Today's Republic of Tunisia (Republic of Tunisia French: République tunisienne Arabic: الجمهورية التونسية) was once the center of ancient Carthage, which could rival ancient Rome. The birthplace of Hannibal, the famous Carthaginian general, is in the north of what is today Tunisia. Carthage had a prosperous business and a strong military. It was the only power in the Mediterranean that could compete with Rome at that time. However, after three Punic Wars, even if Hannibal once came to the city of Rome, he eventually lost to ancient Rome with a wider territory and stronger military force, and the city of Carthage was also destroyed. The area where Tunisia is located today has become a colony of ancient Rome. After the demise of the ancient Roman Empire, this place was successively occupied by the ancient "powers", among which the Arab Empire and the Ottoman Empire occupied for a long time, and had a major impact on the local culture and society. The Islamization of Tunisia was also in the Arab Empire. Beginning of the occupation period. And this process of Islamization lasted for more than a thousand years, until after the infamous "African Conference (Berlin Partition Conference)" in 1878, France occupied Tunisia with the acquiescence of other powers, and signed an agreement with the Tunisian royal family in 1881. The Treaty of Bardo (Traité du Bardo) formally replaced Ottoman Turkey as the "protectorate" of Tunisia. By this time, almost all Tunisians had converted to Islam.
After the advent of the French colonial era, Tunisia began to modernize rapidly. France established a preliminary industrial system in Tunisia and built a large number of infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and ports, and public services such as education and health were also maturing under the "management" of France. Among them, the great success in education has trained a large number of talents for Tunisia who can devote themselves to Tunisia's modernization. France also focused on developing trade relations between Tunisia and France, and replaced the U.S. dollar with the Tunisian franc (Franc tunisien) as the official currency in circulation, bringing Tunisia into the French financial system. Most importantly, France established a French-style (also slightly equivalent to the European-style) administrative management system and judicial system for Tunisia, which promoted the modernization of Tunisia's political and legal system. For example, French laws to protect labor, such as the eight-hour work system, paid vacations and other progressive laws, have been generally extended to Tunisia (this is unimaginable in other countries’ colonies). All these laid the foundation for the later economic and social development of Tunisia. It can be said that without France, there would be no later modernized Tunisia.
But on the other hand, compared to Algeria, the "eldest son" of France, Tunisia is relatively ignored by France. The French government also lacks experience in the control of Tunisia, and invests less talents and funds. This makes France's achievements in Tunisia relatively Discounted. Although France has played an important role in promoting the modernization of the colonies, no nation is willing to live under colonial rule and be a second-class citizen or subject. Moreover, because France implements the colonial policy of "inland extensionism", unlike the British support agents, the French take up local administrative positions, fully promote French education, and establish French political and legal systems. , the military to carry out comprehensive intervention and control. This led to more direct friction and conflicts between the French colonists and the Tunisians. The mainstream ideology of the Tunisian people, which has long been influenced by Islamic thought, is also incompatible with the mainstream secularism in France after the Great Revolution. Therefore, the anti-colonial and anti-French movement in Tunisia has never stopped. The defeat of France in World War II also inspired the independence movement in Tunisia. It is worth mentioning that the values of equality, fraternity, and patriotism in the French Revolution, on the one hand, conflicted with Islamic culture, but also promoted Tunisians’ dissatisfaction with French colonial rule and their belief in pursuing independence and freedom.
After the end of World War II, national independence movements around the world surged, and French Indochina and Algeria, a close neighbor of Tunisia, broke out armed movements against French colonial rule. France's defeat in the colonial war and the heavy price it paid forced the French government to gradually give up its intention to maintain its rule over the colonies. After lengthy negotiations, France finally allowed Tunisia to move towards independence. In 1956, Tunisia officially got rid of French colonial rule and established the independent Kingdom of Tunisia. The following year, Tunisian independence leader and nationalist Habib Bourguiba (French: Habib Bourguiba, Arabic: الحبيب بورقيبة) deposed the corrupt and unpopular king and established the Republic of Tunisia. Bourguiba also began his 30-year dictatorship.
After Bourguiba came to power, he actively eased relations with the West and resolved the Bizerte crisis with France; reduced armaments; vigorously developed education and health; implemented a strict policy of separation of church and state, and replaced Islamic courts with civil courts; The fasting diet in Ramadan serves as an example, encouraging people to get rid of the shackles of stereotypes and habits, and work hard to change the backwardness of the country. In fact, these measures generally followed the policies implemented by France during the colonial period in Tunisia, but only strengthened the nationalist color of various policies. Politically, the Socialist Constitutional Party (Parti socialiste destourien, PSD), controlled by Bourguiba, is a one-party dictatorship. In the 1960s, Bourguiba tried to emulate Egypt and other countries affected by the Soviet Union and implement policies of socialist tendencies such as nationalization and agricultural collectivization, but ended in failure. Subsequently, he made some changes in economic policy, allowing limited and partial liberalization and privatization of the economy, but the overall control of the economy by the state remained. In the 1980s, in the face of rising calls for democracy and intensified social resistance, he relaxed his autocracy and tolerated the existence of political opposition forces to a certain extent. Bourguiba is known as the "Father of Modern Tunisia" for his contributions to state building and founding.
However, in the later period of Bourguiba's rule, due to economic decline and political pressure, people's resistance continued one after another. Some of his compromises not only failed to ease social conflicts, but also catalyzed the growth of civil resistance. At the same time, the power struggle within the ruling group is also intensifying. In October 1987, after a "mini-coup", Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali (French: Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali Arabic: زين العابدين بن علي) replaced the Bourgeois government who had been in power for 30 years. Djiba, a new generation of dictators in Tunisia. Soon after, he reorganized the ruling "Socialist Constitutional Party" into the "Constitutional Democratic Alliance (Rassemblement Constitutionnel Démocratique, RCD)", continuing to implement one-party dictatorship.
After Ben Ali came to power, he quickly changed the left-leaning economic policy of Bourguiba's administration, vigorously promoted economic liberalization, privatization, and opened up to attract foreign investment. In this, he is very much like Sadat, the successor of Nasser in Egypt (or he was imitating Sadat). These measures have enabled Tunisia's economy to achieve an average annual growth rate of 5%, known as the "Tunisian Miracle". In politics, he loosened restrictions on the press and the labor movement, and tolerated the existence of opposition forces to a limited extent. Compared to other dictators, Ben Ali is considered relatively enlightened and tolerant. However, according to data from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Tunisia’s “Democracy Index” in 2006 was only 3.06 (out of 10 points), ranking 135th out of 167 counted countries. Before the "Jasmine Revolution" broke out, the "Democracy Index" dropped to 2.79 points, and the ranking also dropped to 144th. Although this kind of data can only be used as a reference, it also reflects that Tunisia is very authoritarian. The enlightenment of Ben Ali's ruling group is limited and partial, at best it is "enlightened autocracy".
After two generations of leaders, Bourguiba and Ben Ali, Tunisia has become a modern country with relatively good momentum of economic development and high degree of secularization in West Asia and North Africa. stand out. It seems that the prospect of Tunisia is bright, and the road is not tortuous, and the overall development trend is steady. But Ben Ali and his colleagues did not expect that under the one-party dictatorship and authoritarian politics, a political storm to overthrow their rule was coming.
(2) The crisis under the appearance of prosperity and stability: the uneasiness brewed by the shrinking of civil rights, the hardship of people's livelihood, and the undercurrent of Islamic conservative forces
As mentioned earlier, the two leaders after the founding of Tunisia made great contributions to the founding and development of Tunisia, but at the same time they also suppressed democracy and restricted civil rights, and there was a long period of economic depression. However, both dictators have accumulated a large number of social problems, but due to the loyalty of the ruling group and the military, these problems have been suppressed on the surface. However, bloody riots still occur from time to time. For example, in 1978, after the "Black Thursday" protests in the capital city of Tunisia turned into riots, the military suppressed them, resulting in dozens to hundreds of deaths and nearly a thousand injuries. In the later period of Bourguiba's rule, there were various forms of resistance movements in various places, and there were many bloody and violent conflicts.
The crisis faced by Bourguiba and Ben Ali can be roughly attributed to two aspects. The first aspect is the issue of civil rights and people's livelihood. During Bourguiba’s administration, the economy has been sluggish for a long time, people are generally poor, and their living standards are poor (especially compared with neighboring Algeria); after Ben Ali’s administration, while the economy has developed rapidly, it has also led to a growing gap between the rich and the poor. Social injustice has become more prominent and social contradictions have become increasingly acute.
Entering the 21st century, Tunisia’s people’s livelihood is facing yet another huge challenge, that is, the shortage of jobs and per capita public service supply due to the rapid population growth, which has led to a high unemployment rate and a real decline in the living standards of the middle and lower classes. In 1960, Tunisia's population was only about 4.2 million, but it soared to 10 million in 2010, with a high proportion of young people. However, when the growth rate of population far exceeds the growth rate of employment positions, a large number of unemployed people appear; and the lack of basic social supplies such as education and medical care also leads to a decline in the quality of life and the ability to reproduce. And the emergence of a large number of "jobless people (or 'being' jobless people)" is the key premise and an important omen of social turmoil (in fact, most of the countries affected by the "Arab Spring" experienced population explosion and A sudden increase in the unemployment rate is a key or even decisive factor in the outbreak of turmoil and revolution). The employment rate/unemployment rate has always been a barometer of social stability. In 2008, Tunisia's unemployment rate was as high as 14%, and the youth unemployment rate was relatively higher. This means that millions of people (including hundreds of thousands of young people) are in the "three noes" and "dangerous goods" without work, income, and work discipline. These unemployed people who were in a desperate situation and had no "worries about the future" not only promoted the arrival of the "Jasmine Revolution" later, but also became the most radical force in the revolution.
Authoritarianism and corruption also plague Tunisia. According to "Transparency International" data, Tunisia's "Corruption Perception Index" in 2009 and 2010 were 65th and 59th respectively, in the middle and upper reaches, but the corruption situation is still relatively serious. For an autocratic country, autocracy also means a "full-power government", so the responsibility is greater, and public grievances cannot be expressed through democratic elections, which lays the groundwork for social unrest and revolution. And the lack of accountability under the autocracy will also make the people complain more and more. Later, Boiszizi's self-immolation and the resulting revolution proved how bad the authoritarian regime's communication with the people can be.
The second aspect is the resurgence of the long-suppressed Islamic conservative forces in Tunisia, making waves. After France replaced Ottoman Turkey as the colonizer of Tunisia, Islamic conservative forces have always been suppressed. Although the French colonial authorities did not force Tunisians to give up their Islamic beliefs, they tried to dilute the influence of religion and contain religious conservative forces through Western-style education, French administrative and judicial systems, and industrialization. These measures have indeed achieved certain results, but as a region where almost all people believe in Islam, Tunisia's religious conservative forces are deeply rooted and difficult to completely eradicate.
After Tunisia became independent, as mentioned above, Bourguiba adopted a series of active secularization methods, which further weakened the influence of Islamic conservative forces in various aspects such as economy, politics, judiciary, and daily life. After Ben Ali succeeded as president, he also inherited Bourguiba's secularization policy. Therefore, Tunisia is one of the countries with the highest degree of secularization in West Asia and even Africa.
But this does not mean that conservative Islamic forces have given up their struggle for power and their infiltration into various areas of Tunisia. The Salafism faction, which tends to Islamic fundamentalism and advocates "jihad", has a deep root among the poor, poorly educated and rural Tunisian people, and has many supporters. In the 1970s and 1980s, the Islamic Revolution in Iran, the rise of Wahhabism in Saudi Arabia, and the United States tried to use Islamic jihadists against the Soviet Union (the most typical example is the United States supporting the "jihad" of Muslims in Afghanistan and Pakistan against the Soviet Union). The Islamic revival movement also Rising in Tunisia. In 1981, the Islamic political party "Mouvement de la Tendance Islamique (MTI)" was established under this international trend. In 1989, it was renamed "Mouvement Ennahdha" and is still in use today. Salafism is also Among them, although Bourguiba and Ben Ali’s government did not recognize the legal status of the party, it did not suffer a major blow. In the 1990s and after that, when Ben Ali came to power, although he generally inherited Bourguiba’s political and religious The principle of separation, but the religious policy is looser than his predecessor, and the "Renaissance Movement" took advantage of the opportunity. Although Ben Ali has also taken measures to combat Islamic conservative forces, such as since 1991, Tunisian President Ben Ali launched the "Purification of Resources Plan" (Plan for the Cleansing of Resources)” rounded up more than 10,000 Islamist activists, including Salafists, but still failed to eradicate them.
The two direct reasons for the growth of the "Renaissance Movement" are its deep cultivation and weaving in the country, and the strong support of Islamic conservative forces abroad. As an underdeveloped country, Tunisia has a huge population of abject poverty, low education and even a population that has not even finished middle school. These people need both material assistance and spiritual comfort. However, the Tunisian government is unable to help these people who have been left behind by the rapid urban development, and the "Renaissance Movement" took advantage of the void. When the government is unable to provide welfare, the "Renaissance Movement" provides charitable assistance to poor Muslims; the government's education cannot benefit rural and urban slums, and religious schools replace the functions of public schools; when people are anxious about poverty, violence, and unemployment, When people are in a state of depression and spiritual sinking, religious conservative forces spread the Qur'an and hadith in combination with reality to give these lost people spiritual comfort. To a certain extent, Islamic forces such as the "Renaissance Movement" have taken on part of the government's functions, but the government is unable to solve these problems, so it turns a blind eye to these problems. This is beneficial to political and social stability in the short term, but it undoubtedly awakened the specter of Islamism that had been suppressed in Tunisia for nearly 150 years since the French colonization, and laid the foundation for the rise of religious conservative forces and the collapse of the Ben Ali regime.
In addition to internal causes, the infiltration of Islamic conservative forces from abroad into Tunisia and collusion with religious conservative forces in Tunisia are also major reasons for the rise of Islamic forces in Tunisia. For a long time, the Gulf monarchy countries headed by Saudi Arabia have been spreading Wahhabism to Asian and African countries, trying to exert influence on countries with extreme, violent, stubborn and conservative fundamentalism, in order to expand Saudi Arabia’s international influence and influence it. the ability to manipulate society. Although people of insight from all over the world hate Saudi Arabia's actions, Saudi Arabia is rich and powerful, and it is difficult for Islamic organizations in various countries to resist the temptation of real money. What's more, extreme Wahhabism and the values of radical Islamic groups in many countries hit it off, and it is even more "happy to cooperate." All this, in Tunisia is no exception. The Gulf monarchies such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have always regarded the republics and secular countries in the surrounding areas as potential enemies. In addition to the conflict of national interests, their main concern is that the influence of the ideology and social system of these republican and highly secularized countries will spill over to the theocracy and absolute monarchy under their rule, leading to the Subverted by an awakened people or military. Therefore, Saudi Arabia and its allies such as the UAE subjectively have the motivation to destabilize the republics and spread extremist teachings for infiltration. Countries such as Egypt and Tunisia are well aware of this, but Saudi Arabia has deep pockets, and these more secular republics are powerless to prevent Saudi Arabia from using Wahhabism to carry out sabotage (on the contrary, the former sometimes needs the financial aid of the latter, and the leaders of the republic Also has various ambiguous ties to the Gulf Monarchies).
Facing the two major challenges of civil rights and people's livelihood crisis and Islamic extremism, the crisis of the Ben Ali regime is deepening day by day. While the Bush and Obama administrations in the United States are actively promoting democratization in the Middle East, the EU also hopes to implement reforms and practice democracy in West Asia and North Africa. This has limited impact on wealthy oil-producing countries in the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, but it will undoubtedly add additional external pressure to Tunisia, a country that is not rich and relies on the United States and Europe for foreign trade. At the same time, the popularity of smartphones and the rise of social media have also provided catalysts for revolutions, turmoil, and political conflicts.
(3) The outbreak of the "Jasmine Revolution" and the rapid collapse of the Ben Ali regime
In 2010, the challenges facing the Ben Ali regime reached a tipping point. Unemployment rate and inflation rate, two data that are critical to people's livelihood, remain high, and public grievances are increasing; the gap between class and regional development is widening, and social injustice is deepening; the international financial crisis hit Tunisia in 2008; More than 20 years of dictatorship and nepotism have made people more and more unbearable (for example, "WikiLeaks" disclosed in 2009 that members of the Ben Ali family colluded with the underworld); Dissatisfaction; the grievances and hatred caused by the bloody suppression of the previous demonstrations... Therefore, even though Tunisia's economic and social development is already at the forefront of the region, the revolution is about to come.
Mohammad Bouazizi, the son of a farmer, relied on him alone to make ends meet selling fruit and vegetables for his family. But he had his goods confiscated multiple times for not having an official business license, and he was also humiliated by city officials (among them he had an altercation with a female manager and was humiliated, which is considered an even greater shame in a religiously-heavy society) . He made numerous attempts to obtain a license and appeal to no avail. So, on December 17, 2010, Bouazizi set himself on fire in front of the local parliament building and was sent to the hospital for emergency treatment. The video of his self-immolation and his previous situation spread rapidly on the Internet, and public resentment boiled over for a while. His story resonated with many unemployed youths, people outraged by bureaucracy and police brutality, and sparked massive protests.
On December 28, in order to quell public grievances, Ben Ali went to the hospital where Bouazizi was located to visit Bouazizi and his family, and offered his family a good job. The next day, he fired the communications minister, reshuffled the cabinet, and promised reforms in an attempt to win back popular sentiment. But it was too late, and public outrage could hardly be quelled. On January 4, 2011, Boiszizi died. Since then, two more desperate youths followed his example and committed suicide.
Immediately afterwards, the trade unions in Tunisia launched a strike of workers across the country, and students from major high schools also took to the streets. In addition, countless unemployed, jobless, self-employed, etc. spontaneously or responding to social media calls, took to the streets one after another, and all major cities across the country fell into protests and riots. Al Jazeera commented that the "uprising" in Tunisia was caused by a "fatal combination" of "poverty, unemployment and political oppression," which are "three characteristics shared by most Arab countries."
The Islamic conservative forces, which had been suppressed for a long time during the reigns of Bourguiba and Ben Ali, also took the opportunity to encourage domestic Muslims to resist the autocratic rule. As early as 2005, Islamic conservative forces and the left-wing opposition jointly launched a hunger strike to fight against the Ben Ali regime. After the "Jasmine Revolution" broke out, the Islamic conservative forces represented by the "Renaissance Movement" also echoed with the left-wing forces, another major anti-government force in Tunisia, and reached a short-term tacit understanding, even though the two have long-term and fundamental mutual exclusion. confrontational relationship.
Faced with a wave of protests, Ben Ali promised reforms on the one hand, including increasing jobs and developing the economy, and on the other hand mobilized the police to brutally suppress protesters everywhere. The protesters also responded violently, attacking the workplaces of the police, the government and the ruling party, and the conflict gradually became fierce. At the same time, the political overtones of the protests have grown stronger, shifting from anti-poverty and anti-unemployment to demanding the resignation of Ben Ali and his ruling clique. According to statistics from international agencies, as of mid-January, at least 66 people have died in police suppression and various conflicts. But the wave of protests has intensified. Social media such as Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter, which had just emerged at the time, played a major role in encouraging people to take to the streets and organize protests. The public opinion control of the Ben Ali government has completely failed, and the state-run traditional media has lost the ability to guide public opinion in the past. The first time the rise of smartphones and social media had a massive and disruptive impact politically was the Arab Spring, which began with the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia (in 2009, of course, Iran The "Twitter Revolution", the "first show" of social media in a major political movement, but its impact was limited and ended in failure). This also marks the beginning of a qualitative change in the form and means of democratic movements in the information age.
On January 14, Ben Ali announced the dissolution of the government and early elections, but to no avail. The Tunisian military refused to support Ben Ali, and some even turned to the protesting people to protect them from the police. In addition, there were military officers who started a rebellion. So, on the same day, Ben Ali fled Tunisia by plane and flew to Saudi Arabia for refuge. In the following days, Ben Ali's cronies were arrested or fled. And some diehards loyal to Ben Ali created a series of violent acts, especially the presidential guards loyal to Ben Ali fought fiercely with the army that came to suppress them. The people and the army that supported the revolution were subdued. So far, Ben Ali's 23-year rule in Tunisia has come to an end.
(4) The chaos after the revolution and the appearance of various political forces
After Ben Ali fled, there was a brief political vacuum in Tunisia. As previously mentioned, there was also a series of chaotic and violent clashes during this period. But soon, several main cabinet members of the former ruling bloc quickly took control of the situation and announced that they would form an interim government and hold general elections. At the same time, from Islamists to secular factions, from left-wing progressives, socialists and even Trotskyites, to right-wing nationalists and liberals, as well as senior officials and elites of the old government of Ben Ali, various political forces have emerged one after another. On the stage, gearing up to seize the power, influence and voice of Tunisia in the "post-Ben Ali era". After the fall of Ben Ali and the lifting of the party ban, more than 80 political parties emerged in Tunisia at once. For a time, the heroes competed for the throne, and thousands of sails competed.
Among the many political parties, the most powerful is undoubtedly the aforementioned Islamist party "Renaissance Movement". As mentioned earlier, because of its huge influence among the poorly educated, poor, and conservative Muslims who account for the majority of the Tunisian population, it has been deeply rooted and deeply rooted in the Bourguiba-Ben Ali era.
When the autocracy fell and the ban on the party was lifted, its potential was quickly released. Its appeal, mobilization, and influence were unrivaled, and it became the veritable largest political party in Tunisia. Its founder, Rached Ghannouchi (French: Rached Ghannouchi; Arabic: راشد الغنوشي) also quickly returned to Tunisia and became active in political activities. The ideology of the "Renaissance Movement" has a strong religious color and represents the religious conservative forces in Tunisia who advocate Islamization. The founder and soul of the "Renaissance Movement", Ghanuhi, is a conservative Salafist who is hostile to secularism, opposes women's participation in politics and work, and even advocates polygamy. He was also repeatedly involved in Islamic fundamentalist violence during the Bourguiba era.
Compared with the "Renaissance Movement", the strength of other political organizations is much inferior. French colonial history and Bourguiba-Tunisia during Ben Ali's administration, the secular forces are also growing, but the overall situation is in a state of disunity and fighting on its own. And most of these parties have long been illegal. After the fall of the Ben Ali regime, secularism and left-wing political parties emerged one after another, but few of them could occupy a place in Tunisian politics and society. Among them, the strongest in relative strength is the center-left Congrès pour la République. The Progressive Democratic Party (Parti démocrate progressiste), a legal but suppressed left-wing moderate liberal party in the Ben Ali era, is another secular left-wing party with certain influence, sound organization and rich political experience. Relatively further to the left is the social democratic party Labor and the Democratic Forum for Liberty (Ettakatol). In addition, the Communist Party of Tunisia (Parti communiste des ouvriers de Tunisie) (later renamed the Tunisian Workers’ Party (Parti des travailleurs)), a communist political party based on Marxism-Leninism, represents Tunisia’s overall domestic strength is not strong, but in the industry An influential ultra-left force among workers and students studying in France.
Most of the right-wing forces are concentrated in the Islamic political party "Renaissance Movement", and the rest are only relatively secular and liberal and conservative "Democratic Alliance (Alliance démocratique)" has certain influence.
Generally speaking, the right-wing forces representing Islamism and conservatism are relatively concentrated (that is, the "Renaissance Movement" is the main political organization), and the political program is also relatively clear and fixed, that is, to establish an Islamic democracy (ديمقراطية إسلامية) country, The Islamic value system and Sharia law permeate the country's political affairs and people's livelihood; the left-wing forces are obviously scattered, and there are many parties but it is difficult to unite. There are obvious differences in spectrum and specific demands.
But on the other hand, various secular parties are afraid of the strength of the "Renaissance Movement", and they are also planning limited alliances to prevent Tunisia from going toward Islamization. Eventually, secular parties coalesced loosely ahead of the Constituent Assembly elections. Moncef Marzouki, chairman of the "Congress for the Defense of the Republic", is the main political figure in the secular camp.
Marzuki is a medical professional and was a famous medical expert. Later, he devoted himself to politics, participated in and created many organizations concerned with human rights issues at home and abroad, concerned about the rights and interests of children and the disabled, and also got involved in social issues such as civic education, medical and health development, and fought indomitably with the Ben Ali dictatorship. struggle. He was later arrested, placed under house arrest, and exiled in 2001 for trying to run in the presidential election. Like Ghanoushi of the "Renaissance Movement", Marzuki quickly returned to China and participated in political competition when the Ben Ali regime just collapsed.
In addition to the Islamic religious forces and the secular opposition, there is also a powerful force that is "undead and not stiff", which is the bureaucracy and elite of the former Ben Ali regime. Although the Ben Ali regime collapsed, and most of its core cronies and die-hard supporters were arrested, killed or fled, there are still a larger number of technocrats and vested interests in the old era who continue to control Tunisia’s economy, military, and scientific research. , culture, education, health, energy and other important fields, and even holds some political power. On the one hand, they are willing to "draw a clear line" with Ben Ali, on the other hand, of course they want to retain their positions, interests, and even privileges. The opposition has long been suppressed by more than 50 years of autocratic rule by Bourguiba and Ben Ali, few of whom had political experience. Therefore, the new government had to "retain" most of the political elite of Ben Ali's regime. This of course drew opposition from many people, especially radical protesters, but the main opposition all chose to compromise. Because the new regime is inseparable from these old-age bureaucrats and elites who are large in scale, deep in foundation, abundant in economic and social resources, rich in political experience, and irreplaceable in the short term in many professional fields.
Islamists, secular political opponents, bureaucrats and elites of the old regime have become the three main forces after the "Jasmine Revolution" in Tunisia. And there are complex factions within each force; there are also subtle competitions and grievances among the three.
(5) The establishment of the transitional government and the election of the Constituent Assembly
After Ben Ali fled, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Fouad Mebazaa, assumed the role of interim president in accordance with the resolution of the Constitutional Council. Because members of the Constitutional Council and Maybaza himself were members of the old regime, he was regarded by the revolutionary masses as a remnant of the Ben Ali regime and was severely criticized. But after he announced his withdrawal from the Politburo of Ben Ali's party "Constitutional Democratic Alliance", reorganized the old cabinet, promised to promote democracy and conduct constitutional elections as soon as possible, he was recognized by the opposition and became the head of state in Tunisia's transitional period.
A month later, Beji Caid Essebsi, a veteran Tunisian politician who had held several key positions since Bourguiba, was named prime minister. Although Essebsi was a high-ranking official in the old regime, he always attached importance to human rights, and his thinking was relatively progressive and secular. Moreover, he was mainly entrusted with important tasks during the Bourguiba era. Ben Ali was not close to him because he was up and down to him. As a result, he has the support of the opposition, especially the secularists, and has become the number two figure in Tunisia's transition. However, his cabinet has undergone a change of blood, replacing some of the cabinet members appointed by Ben Ali before he fled, forming a situation where the old bureaucracy and the opposition coexist.
After consultations among all parties in the political arena, it was finally decided to hold the election of the Constitutional Assembly (L'Assemblée nationale constituante tunisienne, ANC) in October of that year to formulate a new constitution and realize the transition to democratization. It also has the functions and powers of electing the president (the first president after the Constituent Assembly was indirectly elected by the Constituent Assembly rather than universal suffrage), making major decisions, and supervising the government. It is similar to Congress, but has additional powers than Congress, such as formulating a new constitution and electing a president.
Therefore, all parties are actively preparing for the election of the Constituent Assembly, trying to increase their influence and discourse power during the transition period, participate in and even lead the formulation of the new national foundation - the new constitution - to the greatest extent, and contribute to the political development of Tunisia in the new era. Participate in and lay the foundation for governance.
As mentioned earlier, Islamists, secular opposition and old regime elites are the three main forces participating in the competition. When the election plan and date are determined, they will show their talents and devote themselves to the election campaign. Each of these three forces has strengths and weaknesses.
For Islamists, their concept of Islamization has won the support of devout Muslims and general support at the grassroots level and in the vast villages; decades of intensive cultivation have also given them a stronger ability to mobilize society. These have been mentioned before, so I won't repeat them. But its Islamist values also make the secular people fear and uneasy. Party leader Ghanuhi compared the "Renaissance Movement" to Erdogan's "Justice and Development Party (AKP)" in Turkey, claiming that he would not learn from the Taliban and Saudi Arabia's model of theocratic unity, but follow the example of Turkey, Malaysia and Indonesia , combining Islamism with modernization. Ganoushi also promised to give women the right to abortion and political participation. However, due to its attempts to completely Islamize the government, the judiciary, the media, and the military to control the country, to vigorously develop Salafist believers, and to firmly oppose the fundamentalist concept of women's right to work and education for a long time, the secular Christians are deeply wary. In addition, Ghanuhi and the "Renaissance Movement" used two sets of contradictory language on different occasions and environments, internally and externally, publicly and privately, in front of the media and in mosques, which also made secularists generally question their commitment to promoting democracy. , Guarantee women's rights, and implement the sincerity of separation of government and education.
Contrary to the Islamists, the main supporters of the secular opposition are the urban middle class, the intelligentsia. In addition, left-wing secularists still have considerable influence among Tunisian industrial workers. The main slogans of the secularists are the rule of law and freedom. The leftists emphasize social fairness and universal protection, while the rightists attract support with the market economy and free competition. The political ideas and policy propositions of the secular school are more rational and scientific, and they are more feasible and sustainable. However, secularism has a weak foundation among the large number of lower-class residents, especially rural residents, and it is difficult to compete with Islamic parties such as the "Renaissance Movement". In addition, the secular forces are relatively diverse and scattered, and there are obvious political differences between the secular left and the secular right, which also make them lack unity and weaken their overall strength.
People from the old regime ran in a low-key manner. They knew very well that the decadent and authoritarian old regime was unpopular, so they chose to "list through the back door" and let the opposition figure and media personality Mohammad Hamdi establish the "Popular Petition Party (Popular Petition)" and act in front of the stage. People from the old regime Under the cover of the banner of the new political party, they secretly made efforts. People in the old regime have unique advantages in terms of power, money, connections, knowledge and experience, and executive power. Even if they have a dirty past, these resource advantages are enough for them to occupy a pivotal proportion in the constitutional assembly.
On October 23, 2011, Tunisia held elections for the Constituent Assembly, with a total of 217 seats determined. In the end, the "Renaissance Movement" won the championship with 89 seats; the Congress Party for the Defense of the Republican Party won 29 seats; the "People's Petition Party" won 26 seats; the "Labor and Freedom Democratic Forum" won 20 seats; The rest of the seats are divided among other minor parties and independents.
According to the election results, the Islamic political party "Renaissance Movement" became the largest party, but failed to exceed half (109 seats). The forces closely related to the old regime have also successfully entered the representative institutions of the democratic system.
The formation of the new government is the result of a compromise between Islamists and secularists. After consultation and voting between the two parties, Moncef Marzuki of the Congress Party for the Defense of the Republican Party was elected as the new president of the Republic of Tunisia. In exchange, Hamadi Jebali, secretary-general of the "Renaissance Movement", was appointed prime minister and formed a coalition government composed of two factions and three parties. Among them, the "Renaissance Movement" occupies nearly half of the cabinet positions, and the Congress Party for Defense of the Republican Party, the "Labour and Freedom and Democracy Forum" and 7 independents obtained the remaining cabinet positions.
(6) Coalition government, mixed policies, and multi-party cooperation: Tunisia with the foundation of democratic politics first established
After the establishment of a coalition government composed of Islamic parties and secularist parties, Tunisia officially entered a transitional period of democratic constitutionalism. During the transitional period, the new government and the Constituent Assembly are tasked with formulating a new constitution, establishing a democratic political framework, liquidating and resolving issues left over from the autocratic period, revitalizing the economy to solve unemployment, defending human rights, and establishing a social security system.
First of all, on the issue of formulating a new constitution, all parties have fallen into fierce disputes. As a result, in December 2011, the parties adopted an interim constitution designed for the transitional period, while the formulation and promulgation of a formal constitution was delayed. The Interim Constitution established the principles of separation of powers and the rule of law. Due to political disputes and assassinations of lawmakers (such as co-creator Mohamed Brahmi in July 2013), the formal constitution, which was supposed to be completed within a year, was not promulgated until January 2014. It became Tunisia's third constitution after the 1861 constitution and the 1959 constitution.
The constitution stipulates that Islam is the state religion, but at the same time guarantees freedom of belief and equality between men and women; implements a semi-presidential and semi-cabinet system; advocates the establishment of an open and transparent government; sustainable use of resources and protection of the environment; combating corruption, decentralization, etc. Because the constitution is not based on Islamic teachings, but on secular codes, it is considered one of the most progressive constitutions in the Arab region. But at the same time, the Constitution also restricts people's attacks and criticisms of religion. This can be seen as a compromise between sectarians and secularists.
Although there are still many controversies about the constitution, it has been recognized by all parties as a whole. It is the crystallization of the consensus reached by various political factions in Tunisia after disputes and compromises. The successive promulgation of the interim constitution and the official constitution also means that Tunisia's political transformation is gradually on the track of rule of law and institutionalization.
According to the election results and constitutional principles, Tunisia has realized the separation of powers, multi-party system, and the establishment of a responsibility-based regime. It has officially bid farewell to the autocratic era of Ben Ali and moved towards democratic politics. But this is only the surface of the system and the law. In Tunisia under the influence of long-term authoritarianism, the realization of democratic politics cannot be achieved overnight.
As for the liquidation of the old regime, the new government took a very restrained attitude. Although Tunisia has established a "Truth and Dignity Commission (Instance Vérité et Dignité)", related work has been slow and has limited success. Faced with a mountain of complaints (as of 2016, the commission received more than 27,000 cases), the commission has mainly provided meager relief rather than punishing criminals. In addition, issues of corruption and embezzlement of public funds by the former regime, and "economic and financial reconciliation" issues are also key issues addressed by the committee, but they have not achieved ideal results. The state did not conduct large-scale trials of military and political officials at all levels of the old regime, but absorbed bureaucrats from the old regime to participate in the new regime. On the one hand, this reduces the resistance from the old forces and the direct loss of transformation, but also allows more remnants of the old regime to be left behind and become a burden for the new regime.
Boosting the economy and tackling unemployment, the new regime faces the same challenges as the old one. It is even said that the challenge of a democratic government is even greater. Because of factors such as political turmoil during the democratic transition period, decline in social control, and the replacement of old and new in various fields, all have negative effects on economic development. Although the autocratic regime is corrupt, it is also relatively efficient and stable in terms of economic development. When democracy was in full swing, there was a huge power vacuum among the people, and the state's management and services for the economy were relatively absent. This clearly contradicts the high expectations of the people for the newly established democratic government. The people then became disappointed and dissatisfied, leading to a further decline in the authority and control of the government.
As a result, high unemployment, soaring prices, deteriorating public order, and social disorder... All kinds of problems in the transition period have emerged, making the new government overwhelmed. This is also a common problem in many countries undergoing democratic transition after revolution, and it is an unavoidable pain. After the revolution, Tunisia's GDP growth was once negative, and then resumed positive growth but at a slow rate. And the problem of high unemployment (up to 15% for many years) has not been effectively solved so far. In short, the post-democracy Tunisian economy is not optimistic. It can even be said that compared with the development of democratic politics, the economic field has become a shortcoming that hinders Tunisia's transformation.
Conversely, although Tunisia after the democratic transformation has not achieved economic success, it has been successful in areas such as political democratization and diversification, nationalization of the military, and universalization of social security. The most commendable thing is that Tunisia achieved a peaceful transition without the outbreak of large-scale bloody conflicts or even civil wars.
(7) The four major organizations in the "Tunisian National Dialogue Conference": the backbone of peaceful transformation
A key factor in realizing this peaceful transition is that Tunisia has had strong trade unions, industry associations and other civil organizations since the autocratic period. These unofficial organizations play an important role in the process of social transformation, civil society construction, and promotion of democracy and the rule of law. Among them, the Tunisian National Dialogue Conference, which won the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize, and the relevant four parties in the conference, namely the Tunisian Federation of Trade Unions, the Tunisian Federation of Trade and Industry and Handicrafts, the Tunisian Human Rights League, and the Tunisian Bar Association, are outstanding among these non-governmental organizations. It is also the backbone of Tunisia's democratic transition.
Take the most important and largest organization, the Tunisian Federation of Trade Unions, as an example. The Tunisian Federation of Trade Unions was established in 1946 when it was still under the French rule, and it has a long history. After Tunisia became independent, the Tunisian Federation of Trade Unions both confronted and cooperated with the autocratic government and became an extremely important political force in Tunisia. It cooperates with organizations such as the Tunisian Human Rights League to support and assist each other. As a trade union, it is natural to protect the interests of workers and employees as the primary appeal. Although it was repeatedly suppressed under the authoritarian regime, it survived tenaciously and maintained relative independence.
During the "Jasmine Revolution" in Tunisia, the support and participation of the Tunisian Federation of Trade Unions played a major role in the peaceful victory of the revolution. The post-revolutionary interim government also invited its leading members to three ministerial posts. But under the pressure of public discontent, they finally chose to resign and caused internal divisions. But it remains the most influential civic organization in Tunisia and the largest political force outside the major political parties.
The Tunisian Federation of Trade Unions is also the stronghold of the left-wing forces in Tunisia. As an organization deeply influenced by socialist ideas and representing the interests of the working class, it has cultivated many left-wing political activists and grassroots people. This has provided a large number of talents for the victory of the democratic revolution and democratization construction in Tunisia, and made important contributions to the democratic transition. In terms of cultivating the mass base and talents of the revolution, it is the force that has contributed the most, surpassing all other political parties and organizations. It is also one of the most important platforms for Tunisian citizens to safeguard their rights and participate in politics. It is a training ground for civil society before democratization and a frontier for democratic political construction in the process of democratization.
The other three major civil rights organizations also played a major role, but their strength was second to the Tunisian Federation of Trade Unions last time. The Tunisian Federation of Trade and Industry has mobilized professional workers from various industries, supplementing and strengthening the power of the Tunisian Federation of Trade Unions; the Tunisian Human Rights Alliance focuses on the protection of national rights and human rights monitoring, and promotes the liquidation and reflection of the issues left over from the autocratic period; Tunisian lawyers The association provides legal support for the democratic transition and civil society construction in Tunisia, and promotes the development of the rights defense movement and the rule of law of the democratic regime.
In short, the four parties of the "Tunisian National Dialogue Conference" used their professional experience and capabilities and utilized the power of the organization to pull the chaotic post-revolutionary Tunisia into the right track of change, reduce internal friction and turmoil, and formalize the civil rights movement. , making outstanding contributions to Tunisia's democratic transition in various forms. What is even more valuable is that these four organizations have dialogue and cooperation with each other, rather than disrupting each other, putting Tunisia's national and public interests above the interests of its organizations.
The "Tunisian National Dialogue Conference" about the Quartet and its deeds and characters before and after the revolution and in the transitional era is very worthy of learning and reference for people in other countries who are committed to promoting democratization and social progress.
(8) Contest and compromise between secularism and religion
Although after a compromise, the secular and religious forces in Tunisia shared political power and formulated a secular constitution with certain religious overtones, the struggle between the two factions did not stop. On the contrary, with the economic downturn and social pain, the political struggle between the two sides will soon usher in a new climax.
The new conflict was sparked by a political assassination. In February 2013, Tunisian human rights lawyer and political activist Chokri Belaid was shot and killed. As a secularist, he has been committed to opposing Islamic extremism during his lifetime, so he was hated by conservative religious forces. Later, according to the police investigation, the murderer was indeed a radical Islamist, and was related to the aforementioned Islamic political party "Renaissance Movement".
This immediately triggered mass protests from secularists. Protests and riots against the "Resurrection Movement" and conservative Islamists broke out across Tunisia. Some offices of the "Renaissance Movement" were looted and burned. Both President Marzuki and Prime Minister Jebali expressed condolences for BlackRock's assassination, but the situation has not yet calmed down.
At this time, as the representative of the "Renaissance Movement" in the government, Jebali made a compromise. He decided to reshuffle the government from an Islamist-dominated government to a technocrat-dominated transitional government until the next general election. The "Renaissance Movement" internal opposition to his resignation. But Jebali still voluntarily resigned as prime minister. This reflects the differences between moderates and conservatives within the "Renaissance Movement". Jebali's eventual resignation and cabinet reshuffle proved a victory for the moderates in his party.
This compromise is crucial. It avoided the possibility of large-scale conflicts and even civil wars between Islamists and secularists, and maintained peace and democracy in Tunisia.
Immediately afterwards, in the 2014 general election, the moderate faction of the "Renaissance Movement" headed by Jebali supported the secular figure Marzuki as a candidate, and the "Renaissance Movement" did not participate in the presidential election. Although in the end Marzuki lost to another secular candidate, Beji Kad Essebsi of the Voice Party of Tunisia, the secular faction won in the end, which prevented Islamic conservative forces from gaining power and was conducive to Tunisia’s maintenance of secularism. democracy. This is in sharp contrast to the Islamic fundamentalists who gained power after the revolution in Egypt and other countries, and the country fell into the struggle between Islamists and secular soldiers. Among them, moderate Islamists such as Jabali contributed a lot to the compromise with the secular faction, and it is also commendable.
The rise of the new secular faction also restricts religious forces. In the 2014 Tunisian parliamentary election, the "Voice of Tunisia Party", jointly established by a number of secularists and organizations, defeated the "Renaissance Movement" representing Islamic conservatism with 37.56% to 27.79%, winning 86 seats and becoming the largest party. party. This also means that the Tunisian secularists have defended the secularization of Tunisia and resisted the revival of Islamic fundamentalist forces, including Salafists, through peaceful means of democratic elections.
Compared with Egypt's "officer corps" overthrowing the Islamic democratic regime by force, Libya falling into civil wars involving religious forces, secular factions, and regional tribes, as well as the chaos and bloodshed in other countries that experienced the "Arab Spring", Tunisia is solving the problems of religion and democracy, It is undoubtedly a success whether the country chooses the direction and the way of realization when it is going conservative or modern.
In Tunisia's peaceful road to secularization, the liberal faction among the religious forces, such as the former "Renaissance Movement" member Jabali and others, took the initiative to make concessions to the secular faction, which played a very important role. They did not blindly stick to religious dogma, nor did they use violent means to serve as defenders of fundamentalism. Instead, they saw the general trend of the times and worked with secular forces to build a modern democratic Tunisia. When a few conservative and die-hard forces tried to prevent secularization with violence, they resolutely drew a line with them and stood on the side of peace and justice. This is worthy of emulation by all political factions in many countries in the world that are plagued by religious issues.
Another reason is that Tunisia's secular power has a deep foundation and is adaptable. As mentioned earlier, unlike most Arab countries, Tunisia was deeply influenced by the French Enlightenment and the Great Revolution. Progressive forces have always been strong, with a high degree of organization and strong mobilization capabilities. This gives progressive forces sufficient bargaining power in the contest with religious forces, and prevents fundamentalists from acting rashly. The secular forces in Tunisia actively use peaceful means and negotiation means to achieve political goals, which also demonstrates the flexibility and maturity of political means.
In short, in the struggle between secular forces and religious forces, each has achieved compromise and mutual understanding, which has achieved a relatively smooth transition for Tunisia, avoiding the political conflicts of "military secular dictatorship" and "Islamic fundamentalist democracy" like many Islamic countries. Rotating in the strange circle plays a vital role.
Of course, this does not mean that the contest between secular forces and religious forces no longer exists. On the contrary, the battle between the two sides is still fierce. But both parties choose to express and realize their appeals through parliamentary channels and civic movement channels, while reducing resorting to violence and political conspiracy.
(9) The failure of the country's economic transformation and the multiple reasons leading to economic difficulties
If Tunisia's political and ideological transformation was successful, its economic transformation was a failure. From 2011 to 2019, Tunisia's average annual economic growth rate was less than 1.5%, and the per capita GDP growth rate was also sluggish. This is quite far from the 5% economic growth rate during the golden period of Ben Ali's administration, and it is also lower than the average annual growth rate of about 3% in 2000-2010. The World Bank's assessment of Tunisia today is that "while important progress has been made in the political transition towards an open, democratic system of governance, the economic transition has not kept pace".
This seems to validate the claim of some Chinese scholars and observers that "political democracy will bring economic chaos and regression". But on closer inspection, it's not that simple.
First of all, except for 2011, Tunisia’s economy has been in a state of positive growth after democratization, even if the growth rate is very low, which is not easy for a country experiencing the pain of transformation. After the drastic changes in Eastern Europe and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the economies of many countries in the Soviet Union and the East had declined at a rate of 5%-10%, and some countries were even in a state of "shock". Compared with the Soviet Union, Tunisia's economy during the revolution and transition period was considered stable.
More importantly, there are complex reasons for the economic slowdown after the Tunisian revolution, rather than simply "democracy leads to chaos".
First, the deterioration of Tunisia's economy, which had been planted during the autocratic period, only emerged after the revolution. In the later period of Ben Ali's administration, serious corruption, unreasonable economic structure, unfair social distribution, and insufficient consumption motivation have all resulted in low economic sustainable development capabilities. This is destined to make Tunisia's economy unable to continue to maintain rapid growth. It is precisely because of the weakness of the economy and the high unemployment rate that contributed to the revolution. Therefore, we cannot think that the revolution and democratization caused the Tunisian economic recession, but the Tunisian economy has already been in a state of decline, and the shock of the revolution made it more obvious and earlier. Similarly, the Soviet Union and Eastern China in the 1990s were also like this. There was an economic crisis before political turmoil, not the other way around.
Second, after the revolution and democratization of Tunisia, economic justice work is required, including the confiscation of illegal income and necessary property redistribution. This inevitably leads to stagnation and disorder in the original economic system. But such work is necessary and even necessary, because economic justice and distributive justice are part of social justice and one of the goals of revolution and democratization. In the past, even if the economy was better, most of the income fell into the pockets of corrupt officials and profiteers who were attached to dictators. How much sense did such economic development have? And as mentioned earlier, the reason for people's revolution is the widening gap between the rich and the poor and social injustice. If there is no reasonable redistribution, what is the significance of the revolution? Even if this requires sacrificing higher economic growth in the short to medium term, it is acceptable.
Third, the national economic policy lacks system and efficiency. After the revolution, Tunisia did not effectively reform the economic structure and improve government efficiency. At the same time as political reforms, economic reforms have stagnated. While the Tunisian government was busy with political issues and distribution issues, it neglected the consideration of economic benefits such as economic growth and employment improvement. This is indeed a major political blunder by the democratic regime in Tunisia. In addition, unsustainable policies such as increasing public expenditure by borrowing foreign debt (while using foreign debt inefficiently) have also cast a greater shadow on the Tunisian economy.
In addition, inherent and objective factors such as the small domestic market, the turmoil in surrounding areas, and the “generational gap” with Western developed countries have long affected Tunisia’s economic growth and development level. These problems exist no matter in the authoritarian period or after democratization.
Obviously, the failure of Tunisia's economic transformation after democratization was not due to "democracy and chaos", but the result of various reasons. It is true that democratic regimes have not done enough in terms of economic development, but this cannot be a reason to deny democratization. Moreover, it was only after democracy that these problems were fully exposed, and much of the decadence and chaos of the economy during the autocratic period was often hidden. Facing the naked and brutal truth of the economy and society is better than "prosperity" wrapped in lies; letting people know and express their dissatisfaction with the economy and people's livelihood is better than the "harmony" obtained by patience and self-comfort under high-pressure stability maintenance.
For Tunisia, reducing the pain of transformation, taking advantage of the dividends of democracy, and actively reforming the economic system is a top priority. Tunisia is located near the Mediterranean Sea, facing developed Western Europe across the sea, and has a good economic and geographical environment; self-sufficient resources such as oil and natural gas can be exported; the industrial and mining industry has a good foundation; the tourism industry is developed...Tunisia should take advantage of these advantages On the basis of improving the scientific and technological content of the economy and service quality, expanding foreign trade, narrowing the economic gap between gender and urban and rural areas, promoting employment and improving the incentive mechanism, promoting the optimization of the national economic structure and the fairness of distribution, so as to improve economic efficiency and make Economic results better benefit the people.
The failure of Tunisia's economic transformation has also inspired many countries that are or will be democratizing, that is, how to take into account democratization and economic development, balance economic efficiency and social equity, reduce the pain of the transition economy and people's livelihood, and take political transformation as the key to economic development. Motivation rather than drag. Of course, countries around the world have different national conditions and there is no unified template, but the similarities still outweigh the differences. Only when the protection of civil rights and the promotion of people's livelihood are paralleled, will people have more confidence in democratic politics, and they will be more active in pursuing and defending democratic politics.
(10) The latest changes in Tunisian politics and the rise of secular conservatism
In July 2019, Essebsi, then President of Tunisia, passed away due to illness, and the general election of that year was also held early as a result. In the second round of elections in October, Kais Saied, a non-partisan independent candidate, won 72.71% of the vote and became the second directly elected president after the "Jasmine Revolution".
Keith Said studied law in college and has been engaged in legal and human rights work for a long time. But when he entered the political center and entered the presidential campaign, he appeared more as a populist. During the campaign, he often visited civilian communities, took public transportation, showed an approachable style, and made anti-corruption an important campaign platform, attracting voters' support with his moral appeal and personal charm. However, he also emphasized the importance of law and order, supported the death penalty and opposed homosexuality. Although some people call Said "Robespierre en campagne in a foreign country", he is a populist with a right-wing conservative color, which is very different from Robespierre's strong left-leaning thinking. .
Said's big victory in the general election also reflects a change in the political mentality of many Tunisian nationals. At one time, they supported the left wing, which advocated comprehensive change and social justice, and some people fell into the arms of Islamic fundamentalism. However, for several years, Tunisia's economy has not improved, and the benefits of social transformation have not been fully perceived by the public. At the same time, the inefficiency of the government and the bureaucracy of politicians, as well as the corruption that still exists, have also made people increasingly disappointed with the existing bureaucratic system dominated by the establishment. This has caused many people to have deep doubts about their former ideals and values. The continuous turmoil after the revolution in Tunisia also turned the people from seeking change to seeking stability. It was at this time that populism was on the rise internationally. From Europe, America to Asia, Africa and Latin America, the "alt-right" is very popular. Therefore, voters pinned their hopes on Said, who has a strong populist style and a right-wing conservative ideology.
This is a resounding wake-up call to the progressive forces in Tunisia. Although the progressive left has performed well in revolution, it is not very constructive in governing the country. Although they successfully resisted the rise of Islamic fundamentalism, they faced challenges from right-wing secular conservative forces. When change and redistribution gradually give way to stability and conservatism, and the desire for legal norms outweighs the passion for continued revolution, the decline of the left and the rise of the right become inevitable.
Said is not an Islamist, but has the broad support of the latter. He won the 2019 general election by a large margin, and the support of Islamist parties such as the "Renaissance Movement" played an important role. The reason why Islamists support him is that his conservative value orientation is relatively in tune with them. Although Said is only a secular conservative, in the eyes of Islamists, he is certainly more traditional and respectful of religion than left-wing progressives. In Tunisia today, the confluence of secular conservatives and religious conservatives is a foregone conclusion.
(11) The Enlightenment of the Tunisian Revolution and Democratic Transition to China's Future Changes
Shortly after the "Jasmine Revolution" broke out in Tunisia, some people called for a "Chinese Jasmine Revolution" on the Chinese Internet. Even in Wangfujing and other places in Beijing, some people gathered in the streets holding jasmine flowers. But no matter online or offline, the number and scope of participants are quite limited, let alone the scale of forming a protest. Under the suppression of the CCP regime, the "Chinese Jasmine Revolution" was quickly killed in the bud. Later, the stability maintenance system was strengthened day by day, and about a year after Xi Jinping came to power, China entered a dark age of high totalitarianism.
The revolution in Tunisia succeeded, but the resistance of the Chinese people failed. What is the reason for the different results? In short, there are the following points.
First, the control power of the authoritarian regimes of the two countries is different. In Tunisia, although the opposition forces have been suppressed, they have always existed tenaciously (it can also be said that the authorities have limited tolerance), and are highly organized and large-scale. The Ben Ali regime only controls the core political power, and non-governmental forces in various fields of society have room to grow and resist. Freedom of the press and freedom of speech are also guaranteed to some extent. In China, however, the CCP regime, armed with a Lenin-style party and a Stalin-style bureaucracy, monopolizes almost all power and resources, does not allow any civil political resistance to grow, and has a strict and powerful stability maintenance system. All the media are under the control of the government, the literary prison has imprisoned the souls of intellectuals, and enslaving education has strengthened the subject psychology of most citizens. The most important thing is that the CCP has ensured the party’s absolute leadership over the military and has a firm grip on the barrel of the gun. This is completely impossible for the Ben Ali regime.
Second, the economic and social conditions of the two countries are different. Before the revolution, Tunisia was in an economic downturn, with high unemployment and distrust of the government among its citizens. In contrast, in China about ten years ago, the economy was still growing rapidly, the unemployment rate was low, and the household registration system tied migrant workers and other groups to the land to avoid turbulence caused by a large floating population. Compared with Tunisia, China's public service system and infrastructure are relatively complete, even if there are serious imbalances and inequalities.
In the process of economic and social construction and regime construction, the CCP regime has also cultivated a huge (at least hundreds of millions) elite/middle class/vested interests who are attached to the system. These people enjoy good public services and relatively superior material conditions. Become a reliable supporter of the regime. However, Tunisia has a weak economy, a small country, and a well-off vested interest class, which cannot be compared with China in terms of number or proportion.
Third, there are obvious differences in the cultural and historical traditions and national values of the two countries. Although Tunisia is an Islamic country, it is deeply influenced by the progressive ideas of Western European countries such as France across the sea. Liberalism and democratic thoughts are popular, and the citizens have high political enthusiasm and willingness to change. However, China has long been immersed in authoritarian culture such as Confucianism and Legalism, and suffered from high-intensity enslavement education and brainwashing propaganda during the Qing Dynasty and the CCP’s rule. The people are generally indifferent to politics, lacking public awareness and desire for change.
In addition, the Ben Ali regime and the CCP have different attitudes when facing a great crisis of governance. After the "Jasmine Revolution" in Tunisia began, Ben Ali once chose "carrots and sticks" to appease and suppress at the same time. However, there was much hesitation in the suppression process, and he was not so vicious that he would spare no effort at all costs. In the end, his regime gave up resistance. In exile overseas; and the CCP firmly and bloodily suppressed the pro-democracy movement with an iron fist during June 4th. In the following three decades, the CCP has always used violent means to nip all resistance in the bud, and it has almost never hesitated or relentlessly taken action.
Due to the above reasons, in the 2010s, one of the two countries was making great progress on the road to democratization, while the other was heading towards the almost peak of authoritarian totalitarianism.
Although some objective historical and realistic differences between the two countries are difficult to change, the many experiences and lessons of the Tunisian revolution and democratization are still very worthy of reference for people of insight in China. Stones from other mountains can be used to attack jade, especially in political transformation. These experiences and lessons have been mentioned more or less in the previous sections, and I will only make some concise summaries and supplements here.
First, political opposition forces are highly organized and systematized, civic organizations and guilds are well-developed and active, each organization is large in scale and has a solid mass base. As mentioned earlier, organizations such as the Tunisian Federation of Trade Unions have contributed a lot to the revolution and democratic transition, and are the main contributors to the success of the revolution and peaceful transition. A state of disunity will never achieve success. Highly organized and highly efficient collective action capabilities are prerequisites for the success of social and democratic movements.
These organizations and political parties in Tunisia had a huge mass base in the autocratic era, and everyone knew about them, and they had sufficient practical influence and wide popularity. Therefore, during the revolution, the opposition can mobilize a large number of people to fight, and only during the transformation can the universal participation of the whole people be realized. Politics cannot be reduced to small circles. Only by enlightening and absorbing the participation of a large number of civilians and taking root among the masses on a daily basis can real changes be promoted.
Compared with Tunisia, China's political opposition forces at home and abroad are extremely scattered, and the limited organization is also very small in scale, with a loose structure and lack of cohesion, and the various factions are still fighting endlessly. Among the Chinese people, very few people have specific knowledge of these opposition figures and organizations. Although this is due to factors such as the CCP regime’s fierce suppression of organized citizen movements and strict information blockade, the opposition’s lack of attention to organizational building and expansion of influence, and lack of deep cultivation and weaving among the people are also one of the reasons. Without organization, even if there are hundreds of millions of people among the 1.4 billion citizens who are willing to take action to protest, they will be "controlled with less" by the regime because of their isolation and lack of interconnection.
It is undeniable that due to objective reasons such as the regime’s suppression and destruction, opposition groups in various countries have difficulties in organizing and hindering collective action. However, China’s opposition forces are in a state of disunity and poor collective action. The group's super organization, strong external consistency, and efficient action form an embarrassing contrast. Compared with China's 1.4 billion people, the number of people participating in the political resistance movement is pitifully small, not to mention the proportion. However, countries such as Poland, South Africa, Brazil, Spain, South Korea, and Myanmar once had authoritarian eras. There were very influential and numerous political resistance organizations among the people, such as the "Solidarity" in Poland and the African National Congress in South Africa. And "Spear of the Nation", South Korea's New Democratic Party and "Democratic Promotion Association", Myanmar's Democratic League, etc. These organizations have played a central role in the process of democratization in their countries.
For the Chinese political opposition, it is imperative to strengthen the organization, promote integration, and expand the mass base. First of all, it is necessary to turn the loose connection among members of the opposition into a solid organization and normalize collective action; second, organizations with different ideologies, values, and goals, regardless of left, center, right, or class, should adhere to "Common bottom line", seek common ground while reserving differences, and when necessary, unite in action and speak out together; third, political opposition forces should not be limited to small circles and individuals, but should actively mobilize the masses, expand publicity channels, enlighten and recruit people from all walks of life , to expand the scale as much as possible (of course, it is not better to avoid excess), to the extent that a movement with wide influence can be launched.
Constrained by the current pervasive situation of China's high-handed autocracy, it is of course impossible to do this quickly. But we should work hard in this direction, and when there is room for development, we should actively seize opportunities and stabilize the stakes.
Second, a mature civil society, strong ideological enlightenment, and strong citizens' political participation and action. Since the period of French Tunisia, Tunisia’s civil society has sprouted, and it has not been destroyed in the era of Bourguiba and Ben Ali’s autocracy. The scale of civil resistance is considerable and tenacious. The ideological foundation on which civil society relies, that is, ideological enlightenment, is also rooted in the Tunisian folk for a century. Thoughts have driven actions, and Tunisian citizens have been widely involved in the "Jasmine Revolution" and the process of democratic transformation.
On the contrary, today's Chinese citizens are generally subject to information blockade and brainwashing education, lack of awareness of rights and obligations, and the idea of enslavement and subjection is rampant. Under such an environment of national mentality and public opinion, people simply do not have the awareness to change the status quo and the basic common sense to participate in the change. This in turn fueled the decay of civil disobedience to its disappearance. Moreover, since the founding of the CCP, the non-government and independent political forces in mainland China have been destroyed very quickly, and civil society has been in a blank state for a long time. Naturally, it is impossible to rise from the ground today.
Another important factor is that some of the political opponents and social activists who should actively promote China's democratic process have not gone all out to guide and organize the construction of civil society and the development of citizen movements. There are both external causes (repression by the regime) and internal causes (not doing our best); there are both methods and concepts. Either out of love for feathers, or because of the fear of being persecuted, many people's political opposition stays in words instead of putting it into practice; they only agree with each other in like-minded circles, instead of going out into the mass society to listen, understand, and join , Guidance, and even the minimum sympathy and empathy, let alone take the suffering of the people as their own suffering. There are institutional victims everywhere in China, and there are many people who want to overthrow the autocracy, but political opponents have not established a good connection with them. Although some political activists often speak out and intervene in hot issues, their remarks are outrageous and out of touch with China's reality. They often forward some indiscriminate rumors, and their language lacks sincerity and rationality. It is difficult to impress the Chinese people with such remarks that are problematic from fact to emotion.
What China's political opposition needs to do now is to use all available conditions to promote national enlightenment, lead the rights protection movement, and build the foundation of civil society in a needle-by-needle manner. In the face of repression, we must be brave enough to resist and compromise, gradually maintain and expand the space for citizen movements, combine the goals of political struggle with the micro issues that the people care about, and guide the awakening of the people and politicize the struggle for rights protection (sometimes for the sake of strategy, it can also be Conversely, the purpose is political change but with non-political issues as a breakthrough), improve the mobilization ability of the resistance movement, and actively cooperate with the enlightened faction in the CCP ruling group when necessary, paving the way for democratic change and laying the foundation for the democratic transition after the reform , Provide preparations for the benign operation of the future society.
Although also due to today's harsh environment, it is not easy to do the above in practice. But as long as you have determination and will, make good use of skills, use all conditions to spread enlightenment and expand influence, take advantage of various rule gaps under autocracy, do things as much as possible, and be sincere (of course, this requires self-discipline and self-examination), you will not Nothing happens. When the political environment improves, we must do our best to promote the development of civil society and the cultivation of progressive citizens, laying the foundation for thorough reform.
Third, the revolutionary program is progressive, the direction of democratic transition is correct, and the mainstream thoughts of society are in line with advanced civilization. As mentioned above, Tunisia is deeply influenced by European civilization, especially France. Humanism and rationalism are flourishing, and values such as equality, freedom, and fraternity are deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. It is precisely because of this that the left-wing progressive forces in the Tunisian revolution contributed a lot to the revolution, occupying half of the new regime, and also led the democratic transition to secular progressivism. Safeguarding and developing labor rights and women's rights has become an important goal and key component of revolution and transformation. The focus on building the rule of law and promoting fair income distribution reflects the strong pursuit of justice and equality by all walks of life in Tunisia after the revolution.
It is worth mentioning again, and especially emphasizing, the relative prosperity of social democracy/democratic socialism in Tunisia. The above-mentioned Tunisian Federation of Trade Unions, the "Forum for Labor and Freedom and Democracy", and the Tunisian Workers' Party all have great influence in Tunisia and have contributed to the success of the revolution and its leftward shift. They represent relatively disadvantaged general public such as workers, farmers, women, and minorities, and actively launch the labor movement, student movement, and women's liberation movement to protect the interests of workers, those who have been insulted, and those who have suffered the most. The most steadfast force of justice.
The mainstream of China's political opposition is exactly the opposite of Tunisia's. The vast majority of people are right-wingers, heavily influenced by Anglo-American conservatism, believe in a big market and small government, advocate the so-called "spontaneous order", and advocate that freedom is higher than equality and order is higher. in freedom. Objectively speaking, there is nothing wrong with holding this kind of belief. It is also meaningful to focus on the criticism of excessive centralization, bureaucracy, and "politics in command." The reality of the extremely unequal obligations and the great social injustice. What's the point of a change if it doesn't benefit the majority of the population enough? There are even many opposition figures who are social Darwinists, advocating the law of the jungle and complete laissez-faire. They despise equality, oppose redistribution, oppose equal rights, and ignore the rights and interests of vulnerable groups such as workers and peasants. In terms of value judgments, they often oppose scientific rationality and intellectual narrowness. This is not unreasonable, but very bad.
Contrary to the large number of socialists in Tunisia's democratic forces, Chinese political opponents generally hate socialism. They confuse the CCP, which believes in socialism and communism only in name, with the real Marxists and democratic socialists in most countries, and opposes "communism" whenever it is encountered. In fact, no matter whether it is a developed country in the West or a democratic country in Asia, Africa and Latin America, many of its political parties and members who believe in socialism and communism have a strong sense of justice and dedication, care for the disadvantaged, and strongly pursue social justice (of course there are also some Hypocrisy and corruption, but this exists among people of any political belief, and the proportion is related to the political system and social environment of the country where they are located, not caused by political beliefs). And most of them insist on pursuing goals through peaceful parliamentary struggles and social movements, acknowledging political pluralism, rather than resorting to violence and advocating one-party dictatorship. In a world where the gap between the rich and the poor is severe and full of injustice and oppression, these left-wing and even extreme left-wing forces are often the most staunch defenders of the most exploited and oppressed (of course these people are not saints, let alone all good people, but only relative). It is because of them that conservative and reactionary forces are checked and balanced, and the disadvantaged have a little voice and status, and are not completely abandoned by the world.
It should be noted that this is not true of all Chinese political opponents. But in terms of proportion, the majority of Chinese political opponents, whether in mainland China or overseas, are indeed right-leaning and conservative, and there are not a few of them who are stubborn, ignorant, and cold-blooded.
If China’s political opponents really put the people first and want to build a better country than China under the current CCP regime, they should abandon the values and ways of thinking that are stubbornly conservative, distorted and extreme, and have no brains to hate the “Left”. Move closer to the progressivist trend of thought in the world, unite with the progressive forces of various countries, actively participate in the civil rights movement, affirmative movement, and rights protection movement, fight against structural privacy, commit to promoting social fairness, protecting the disadvantaged, and building a highly civilized society where every individual A society free from bullying and free to develop. Moreover, this is also conducive to mobilizing the common people to participate in the change, rather than becoming a political game for a small number of social elites.
Fourth, it has better dealt with religious issues and reconciled the conflicts between religion and secularism. As mentioned earlier, Tunisia is an Islamic country, 99% of its citizens are Muslim. The main political party "Renaissance Movement", which includes extreme conservative forces such as Salafism, is also a religious party and has a pivotal position in Tunisia. During the period of autocracy, religious forces not only opposed autocracy, but also spread conservative religious teachings, trying to establish a religious regime based on Islamic law to replace secular autocracy; after the revolution and after the revolution, religious forces took advantage of the political vacuum to grow rapidly, and the "Renaissance Movement" once Become the largest political party, trying to promote the Islamicization of the country and govern the country with "books". This is a huge threat to the secularism of the Tunisian state and the basic human rights of the citizens.
However, under the firm resistance of the secular forces and the restraint of the moderates among the religious forces, the Islamists did not break out large-scale bloody conflicts with the secularists. Instead, they reached a compromise through democratic elections and multi-party consultations. On the premise that the country occupies a considerable share in the distribution of power and retains a certain religious component in the legal system, a new constitution that is secularized as a whole was promulgated and a secularized, secularist regime was established. This is not only of great significance to the Middle East where Islamic fundamentalism and religious terrorism are rampant, but also sets an example for many countries in the world.
In the process of democratization, China also faces difficult religious issues. What is more prominent is that the Uyghurs, Hui and other ethnic groups in China believe in Islam, and have had fierce violent conflicts with the non-Muslim Han people in history and in reality. Ethnic and religious issues are intertwined, making the problem more complicated and severe. Similar to Tunisia, Islamic fundamentalism and religious extremism, such as Wahhabism from Saudi Arabia and other countries, have infiltrated into China through various channels, which has also exacerbated the seriousness of China's religious issues related to Iran. If China starts the process of democratization, it will inevitably lead to ethnic separatist forces with strong religious overtones taking advantage of the situation to take advantage of the situation, and bloody storms that lead to national tragedies are also inevitable.
What is relatively hidden but increasingly important is the rapid growth of the number of Christians in China and the growing influence of Christianity. Although due to political reasons, etc., it is difficult to determine the number of Christians in China. However, according to different estimates, there are about 20 million to 80 million Christians in China (including various Christian denominations such as Catholicism and Protestantism), and the rapid growth rate is 10% every year. Compared with Buddhists, Taoists, etc., Christians are more pious in their beliefs, have a high degree of commitment (often participate in religious activities such as worship), and have a high degree of organization; compared with Muslims, they are more active in preaching and developing personnel. The distribution in China The range is also wider. This means that in China in the future, Christian forces will have a very significant influence, and may even lead to the Christianization of mainstream Chinese society. Although religion has a certain positive effect on people and society, it is conservative, idealistic, and exclusive in the final analysis. Create religious violence, and even establish a regime "based on religious teachings" and "govern the country by religion".
It is very disturbing that in China's political opposition, there are a considerable proportion of Christians, and most of them are not liberal Christians but belong to evangelicals and fundamentalists. These people are the main force among the right-wing conservatives, social Darwinists, and anti-intellectualists mentioned in the previous question. They put religious values above universal values and secularism, oppose the separation of church and state (the euphemistic name is "separation of church and state"), despise reason and science, and advocate the principle of governing the country based on Christian teachings. This is not only contrary to the international universal values based on humanity and rationality, and the principle of separation of church and state, but also very different from the liberalized and humanized religious innovations of mainstream Christianity in Europe and the United States.
It is true that everyone has freedom of religious belief. As political opponents, it is their basic right to believe in Christianity for various reasons, including their evangelical fundamentalism. Religion and believers can also serve as an important part of anti-authoritarianism and play a unique and significant positive role. However, in China's democratic reform and transformation, the values and interests of any religion and believers cannot override the people of the whole country, and cannot use some means to induce, brainwash, or even force and semi-force the majority of non-Christian citizens to convert and obey . Among the political opponents, there is no problem with personal belief in religion, but you cannot use some methods to make others believe in it, and you should not form cliques to crowd out other secular opponents, use large numbers of people to use both force and force to push your own political views and Political choices are imposed. Moreover, religious conservatism runs counter to the core concepts of world civilization in the past 300 years, namely humanism (people-centered, human rights supremacy) and rationalism (scientific treatment of everything, disenchantment), and it also separates from church and state, and religion returns to personal beliefs ( Rather than the guiding principles of the system, law and public life), it is not conducive to the development of the rights and freedoms of the people of the country after democratization. If the Chinese political opponents want to truly fight for freedom and liberation for the people, they should insist on the supremacy of human rights, personal freedom and autonomy first, and construct the country and society in a scientific and rational content form, so as to realize the freedom and happiness of the people to the greatest extent. Regarding religion, we should give full play to its role of guiding people to be good and providing social relief, restrain its influence that restricts individual freedom and damages scientific rationality, extract the essence and discard the dross, and treat it as a sublation.
As for China's Islam-related issues, together with ethnic issues, it will become a partial but thorny issue that China will face when it democratizes. Pessimistically speaking, bloodshed and turmoil at that time were basically inevitable. Especially during the Xi Jinping era, concentration camps were set up in Xinjiang, and millions of Muslims from Uyghurs, Kazakhs and other ethnic groups were detained and tortured (and an unknown number was killed or tortured to death), sowing great ethnic and religious hatred, which will eventually erupt. In the democratization period in the future, we can only heal the pain and achieve justice as much as possible by holding relevant personnel accountable, rehabilitating and compensating, and creating conditions for further national reconciliation. In the long run, insisting on national secularization, ethnic equality, and religious freedom, and strengthening the concept of human rights and individual rights, so as to downplay and surpass the exclusive rights of various groups separated by ethnicity and religion, is the most appropriate way to deal with the corresponding problems .
(12) The future of Tunisia, the Middle East and China
Although it has been nearly ten years since the revolution, Tunisia's democratic transition is not over, with both achievements and failures. In terms of achievements, Tunisia has established a constitutional democratic system, realized universal suffrage and multi-party system, and the rotation of political parties and political compromise also marks the maturity of democratic politics. On the whole, it has embarked on the road of democracy in a peaceful way, avoiding religious forces and secularism. The civil war of power has curbed the rise of religious extremism, brought the game of various political forces and interest groups to the track of non-violent solutions, achieved social fairness and distributional justice to a certain extent, and improved the political and economic rights of workers and ordinary citizens. Security; In terms of failure, the economy has not been boosted, the unemployment rate remains high, the national poverty rate is still high, the security is not optimistic, the level of social governance is poor, the confrontation between religion and secularism is still fierce, local conflicts and assassinations occur from time to time , Populism is gradually on the rise.
In short, while Tunisia's democratic transition has made remarkable achievements, problems are also prominent. Its success is mainly at the political level, while its failure is mostly economic issues. As mentioned earlier, there are many objective reasons for its success or failure, but the status quo is not unchangeable. People's livelihood and civil rights are equally important, and both are indispensable. Political democracy can stimulate economic vitality, but it can also easily lead to economic turbulence and policy reversal. It is very important for the government to formulate and implement good economic policies, ensure the continuity and rationality of policies, and take into account both economic efficiency and social equity.
In terms of broader social governance, the Tunisian government needs to do more. Infrastructure and public services are the cornerstones for the normal operation of a country and are related to the basic quality of life of citizens. A democratic government needs to actively respond to the demands of the people, rationally formulate policies and allocate resources, and spare no effort in areas such as education, medical care, employment, public security, and elderly care to improve the quality of life of the people.
But in my personal opinion, it is difficult for Tunisia to make breakthroughs in the fields of economic and social governance in the short to medium term. To change, you need a clean and efficient government, a sound rule of law, citizens with high civic literacy, and a good external environment. These cannot be achieved overnight. The democratic transformation of the past ten years has only established a framework for social change, but has not penetrated into a more specific and fundamental level, and it is impossible to make up for the poverty and backwardness of hundreds of years within this limited time.
Economic weakness can also feed back on politics, as evidenced by the rise of populism. Tunisia overthrew autocracy, but democracy can also bring populism. The typical characteristics of populism include short-sightedness, narrow-mindedness, and extremes. They often benefit themselves at the expense of others. Reason is replaced by impulse, which leads to mutual hatred among different groups of citizens, intensified various conflicts, and national turmoil. It is impossible for such a country to achieve leapfrog development and get rid of the "middle income trap". Tunisia is still underdeveloped politically and economically, and the destructive power of populism will do more harm to the fragile country.
In short, the prospect of Tunisia is complex and chaotic, and a relatively fixed political style and economic characteristics have not yet been formed. In 2019, Tunisia's per capita GDP was only US$3,287, ranking 124th in the world. With such an economic foundation, Tunisia still has a long way to go to become a country with a sound system, a prosperous economy, and full protection of people's rights.
But for the Middle East ravaged by authoritarianism and/or wars, Tunisia's democratic transition has been successful enough to serve as a model. As mentioned at the beginning of this article, after the "Arab Spring", the vast majority of Middle Eastern countries have not moved towards democracy and peace. The authoritarian royal family, violent military oligarchs, and extreme fundamentalists have divided up the political territory of the Middle East, and moderate and moderate secularization Power has been marginalized, violent conflicts and interest blending based on the self-interest of ruling groups, ethnic and religious disputes, geopolitical games, and interference by foreign powers are prevalent, and the people have suffered. Therefore, Tunisia's democratic transformation, even if it is careless and limited, is enough to make people in the Middle East envious.
However, in the context of strong authoritarian forces in Middle Eastern countries, deep-rooted religious conservatism and extremism, complex ethnic conflicts, and a long tradition of political violence, Tunisia's success is difficult to replicate. For example, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf monarchy countries are rich in oil, and the ruling group has enough capital to subdue the people with both soft and hard tactics; Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and other countries have serious conflicts between sects and ethnic groups, and all parties refuse to give in to each other, and democratization is kidnapped by separatism , the interests of ethnic groups overwhelmed the interests of the country, and various forces could not reach a consensus, and they frequently confronted each other with violence; the military in Egypt, Libya, Algeria and other countries have been intervening in politics for a long time, and the tail is too big. Out of their own interests in the Middle East, the United States, Europe, Russia and other major powers outside the region support different forces to fight openly and covertly, often regardless of how dirty the regimes they support are. Although the United States and Europe advertise human rights, in reality they still put their own national interests and even party interests first, and human rights are only secondary considerations (for example, to appease Saudi Arabia's theocratic monarchy for oil and geopolitics, and to suppress Anti-American religious forces acquiesce in the return of the Egyptian junta to power). Under such an internal and external environment, it is even more difficult for countries in the Middle East to establish a real modern democratic system.
Since World War II, countries in the Middle East have been exploring on the road to modernization. Democracy should be an essential part of modernization. However, with the exception of Israel, which is a Jewish-dominated country, other countries either have no democracy or their democracy is seriously flawed. Over the past few decades, most Middle Eastern countries have not become relatively more democratic, and even countries such as Turkey have experienced democratic regression. The drastic changes in the political situation in some countries are just the military taking power instead of the monarchy, and the theocratic government replacing the secular autocracy. At present, it seems that the problems that have not been solved in the past few decades are not likely to change significantly in the next few decades. Countries in the Middle East still have a long way to go on the road to democracy.
What Tunisia’s democratic transformation can tell the Middle East is the importance of peace and compromise, the meaning of secularization and pluralism, the path to make the struggle take a reasonable direction, and the spiritual quality and value of all parties to bravely pursue democracy and defend democracy with heart choose. These can only be used as a reference, and each country has to walk its own path.
The enlightenment of Tunisia's democratic transition to China has been analyzed and elaborated in detail above. In fact, I am very aware of the huge difference in the political environment between China and Tunisia, and I also understand the real dilemma of Chinese political opponents and potential opponents (that is, those who support political change in their hearts but do not publicly disclose or express their views). Many of the deeds of the Tunisian political opposition forces are even more difficult to replicate in China. Especially when it comes to organization and action, there is hardly any space in China today. The reference I am talking about is not an immediate and complete copy of Tunisia, but more of a vision and a general direction, as well as a hope that is far from reality. I am relatively pessimistic about whether China can embark on the road of democratization as soon as possible and achieve a better transition to democracy.
But we have to think, to act, to find hope amidst despair. If you are discouraged, it will not change reality. And if we just wait for "the world will change", it is not only unrealistic, but also irresponsible. Assuming that China will become democratic and people's livelihood will be happy in a hundred years, but we, this generation, did not contribute any real power to the democracy at that time, and did not pay any price, then we are not worthy to face the future Chinese. Of course, that would make us even more sorry for the people of our country before democratization. How can we sit back and watch tyranny, law of the jungle, violence, lies, and darkness continue to exist for a long time, poisoning billions of people for many generations?
Assuming that we wait for a hundred years to "naturally" become democratic, how many victims will there be in this one hundred years? How many of them suffered humiliation and even lost their families because of lack of civil rights and poor livelihood? How many people are bullying and abusing others, and how many are being bullied and abused? How many children and adults have survived the lies of the country and society, been deceived from childhood to adulthood, and become one of the liars themselves? How long will the truth of history and reality be distorted and altered? How else can vulnerable groups be tortured and deprived of their rights and freedoms? Those with power and rights have no obligations, and those who bear obligations have no corresponding rights. There is a serious asymmetry between labor and income, and unfairness is everywhere. Some opposition parties have the ability to stay out of it, but it is impossible for the vast majority of the people to live in seclusion and live aloof from the world.
What's more, if no one and very few people have been fighting and resisting, will China be "automatically" democratic in a hundred years? Even if it becomes democratic on the surface, can civil rights and people's livelihood really be guaranteed? From ancient times to the present, regardless of China or foreign countries, no matter from the slavery to the relative progress of the self-cultivating peasant economy, or from the era of savage capitalism with arbitrary labor and no guarantees to today's eight-hour work system and equal pay for equal work, the abolition of child labor and the implementation of compulsory education, The modern economic and social system with old-age security and pensions, and the transition from being oppressed and colonized by aliens to national liberation and racial and ethnic equality, how can there be goals and rights achieved without struggle and without promotion?
If our generation and those who are alive do not change, only the future will bear the sacrifices. If people in the future follow our example, then by analogy, generation after generation shirk responsibility, then democracy and freedom will never be realized, and we will all be sinners of history. No one is a pioneer, and everyone is waiting to pick peaches. Isn't such a nation shameful? If we say that the weak and ordinary people who have no status, knowledge, and sense of dignity have been destroyed, because they have no consciousness and ability to fight, it is understandable. Those of us who have some resources, education, a certain level of knowledge, and freedom People, what reason is there not to change this unfair and unjust status quo? As for social status, personal rights, and living standards that are superior to most people, those who are in the ranks of vested interests or even privileged classes are more obliged to change the reality, not only because they have great power and responsibility, but also because these people live in an authoritarian jungle society. There is an original sin in making a lot of profits in the middle of the world. It is "superior" by directly and indirectly harming others to benefit oneself and squeezing the interests of others.
We must not just sit and wait, everyone should invest in changing the reality of China, and contribute their own positive power in the historical process. We also need to know that, like Tunisia and many countries, overthrowing autocracy and establishing a democratic system is only a stage of democratic transformation and social progress. After that, there is still a long way to go and more complicated problems to be solved. A finer but firmer resistance to overcome. For example, democracy and economic development are not positively correlated, and may even lead to economic weakness due to labor pains; democracy and liberalization will reinvigorate some hatred and conflicts that were once suppressed by dictatorship, and open conflicts between different groups and intensify struggles and confrontations; Members of privileged groups use the "primitive accumulation" of the autocratic period to continue to be "superior to others" under the "legal means" of the democratic legal system. With freedom of speech and freedom of the press, we will also clearly see the intractable social diseases and ugly realities everywhere in a democratic society, and understand how complicated and dark human nature is. But we cannot negate democracy or bad-mouth democracy just because of this. Democracy cannot solve all problems. It can only provide a key stepping stone for the solution of all problems. There are countless torrents and thorns ahead. Conversely, if democracy is not realized, thousands of problems will be hindered by authoritarian totalitarianism and cannot be fundamentally changed.
We must also learn from the Tunisian revolutionaries' progressive ideas and spirit of daring to act and sacrifice, and use our own practical actions to change China, so that freedom, democracy, equality and fraternity can spread across the land of China and benefit hundreds of millions of Chinese people.
Only by taking action can there be hope, change, and a future worthy of sustainable living for generations to come.
Wang Qingmin
August 23, 2020
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24. Noureddine Hlaoui, Tunisia – On video, January 14, told by Ali Seriati, in Business News
25.Benoît Delmas：Tunisia lives under the mafia threat of henchmen of the old regime: Let's fight against the sacking of the revolution, Le Monde
26.Pauline Fréour：Ben Ali's relatives subject to settling of scores, in Le Figaro
27. It was the army that released Ben Ali
28. "Tunisian fundamentalists are ruining the Arab Spring" - The New York Times
29.Zoubeir Souissi, In Tunisia, a not so new government, Reuters agency in L'experss
30. In Tunisia, the new executive prepares the elections-- Isabelle Mandraud
31. "Tunisia Holds First Elections After the Jasmine Revolution" - BBC
32. "Party Politics in Tunisia in Transition Period: A Perspective of Left-Wing Parties" -- Yi Xiaoming
33.Tunisia - Rached Ghannouchi, a repressed and unmasked Salafist? --SlateAfrica
34. How instructive it is to read the works of Mr. Rached Ghannouchi!--Leaders
35.Tunisia: Marzouki, from exile to the presidency
36.Tunisia: Moncef Marzouki, the incorruptible, young Africa
37.Isabelle Mandraud, In Tunisia, the postponement of the elections does not curb the democratic momentum, Le Monde, June 10, 2011, p. 8
38.TUNISIA - Post-Ben Ali is already in place, Le Point
39.President Essebsi, a lifetime in Tunisia politics--EuroNews
40. In Tunisia, a not so new government, Reuters
41.Fabien Thelma, Ennahdha, face of Tunisian Islamism, Europe 1
42. Electoral boundaries: 217 seats and 33 constituencies, Leaders
43.Tunisian President Fouad Mebaza calls election--BBC
44. Tunisian protesters keep up the pressure, L'Humanité
45.From Arab Spring to post-Islamist summer--The Hindu
46.In a Worried Corner of Tunis--The New York Review
47.Tunisian PM presents new government--AFP
48."Just let us work in peace,"says tunisia truth commission head--Justiceinfo
49. Ridha Kéfi, “Réveil syndical”, on jeunesafrique.com, July 17, 2006 (accessed July 14, 2018).
50.Tunisia: Chokri Belaid assassination prompt protests--BBC
51.Tunisia Economic Outlook--ADBG
52..Tunisia: Kaïs Saïed, a Robespierre in the countryside--Le Point
53. "Perspective China: How should Xi Jinping deal with Chinese Christians?" "--BBC
54. "The Rise of the "Vulnerable": How Many "Hidden" Christians Are There in China?"--"Cultural Aspect"
Tunisia general situation, source of economic data:
Chinese, English, French Wikipedia, World Bank official website, etc.
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