ISA International Committee Statement: War in Ukraine, New Era and the Crisis of Capitalism

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The following statement on the Ukrainian war and its multi-crisis impact on world capitalism was presented at the International Committee of the International Socialist Alternative (ISA) held in Vienna, Austria, from March 28 to April 1 (We at the World Congress It was discussed, debated, revised, and unanimously adopted at the meeting of the international leadership elected last year.

The war in Ukraine clearly shows that we have entered a new era in international relations. This shift has continued since 2007-09, and was further deepened by the Covid-19 pandemic. What are the characteristics of this post-neoliberal period? An obvious key feature is the intensified militarization of imperialism, accompanied by the constant incitement of nationalism and the rapid splitting of the world into camps led by two major imperialists, into a new, less cold "Cold War". Over the past few years, we have seen a partial decoupling of the U.S. and China economies, where the two largest economies in the world, once committed to globalization, are now drivers of deglobalization. And now Russia is decoupling sharply from the economies of the West, Japan and Australia.

This is an era of serious decline in capitalism. The war in Ukraine, and the possibility of it escalating into a full-scale conflict, is a manifestation of capitalism's insoluble contradictions. The worsening climate crisis has threatened humanity's very existence, yet imperialist countries, from China to Germany to the United States, are still expanding their weapons of killing. War is another ecological disaster.

The war also broke out during a devastating pandemic. The global outbreak has killed more than 20 million people and is still raging. China's zero policy is vulnerable to the Omicron variant, and the ruling class in the West has largely given up on both its complete failure to manage the epidemic at home and its inability to develop a serious strategy for a global vaccination program. Respond to the outbreak.

In addition, although the crisis behind capitalism existed before the epidemic, the epidemic has exacerbated the capitalist economic crisis. The crisis will enter a new phase spurred by energy shocks and sharp inflation. In addition to the collapse of the Russian economy triggered by drastic sanctions from the West, the war could tip Europe and the United States into recession. However, the new colony will be hit even more devastatingly by rising food prices and a worsening debt crisis. All in all, the global pandemic and economic crisis of the past two years have exacerbated global inequality and levels of absolute poverty.

Marxists and Imperialism

Just as Lenin, Trotsky and other internationalists were a century ago, so today's Marxists start against all imperialism. These revolutionary ancestors have explained that the emergence of imperialism and the dominance of financial capital is a stage in the development of capitalism, which in fact reflects the development of productive forces that cannot be accommodated by the capitalist mode of production. Today it is all too clear: the capitalist nation-state is an absolute impediment to the further development of the human economy.

We firmly oppose the Russian imperialist invasion of Ukraine. In Putin's pre-war speech, he accused the Bolsheviks of making Ukraine independent and completely denied the historical facts of the Ukrainian nation. Putin's downright reactionary invasion has sparked a humanitarian crisis - more than three million Ukrainian refugees have fled the country and more than six million are internally displaced.

Putin claims his aim is to "demilitarize" and "denazify" Ukraine. We support the Ukrainian people's struggle against military occupation, but at the same time we firmly oppose the Zelensky regime, which, although clearly not fascist, is essentially reactionary. Both Putin and Zelensky work with the far right at home and internationally. Putin supports and even finances far-right and fascist parties in Europe, including Greece's Golden Dawn and France's National Front (now renamed the National League). And Zelensky relied on the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion, and his regime rehabilitated Nazi complicit in World War II.

Zelensky's leadership in resisting the Russian invasion made him a hero to millions of Ukrainians and the world, in large part due to the propaganda of Western media. Zelensky, however, is inextricably linked to the country's most powerful oligarchs and actively pursues a policy of ripping off the Ukrainian masses. He is also the owner of a bunch of offshore companies. Zelensky had already suppressed the rights of workers' organizations when he was in power before the war, and one of the first policies enacted after the outbreak of the war was the imposition of martial law, which included a ban on the right to strike. While the popular fantasies about Zelensky cannot be ignored, we should patiently explain that Zelensky and his regime are by no means allies of the Ukrainian working class.

We are also firmly opposed to the calculations of the US and Western imperialism - they used NATO to contain Russia and created the conditions for war. Now they are pouring war supplies into Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia on an unprecedented scale. Sanctions are not only a joint law against the Russian people, but also an act of war, and they also act as a warning to China.

We point out that a united working class is the only force that can stop the spread of war to endanger human civilization. Although war propaganda in the West and in Russia has been effective, its impact will eventually fade. The majority of the working class is not yet ready to oppose the war, however, as the Western "democracy" disguise is revealed, especially as the serious economic consequences of the war become apparent, the youth will sound the clarion call against the war. In Russia, we have glimpsed the heroic resistance of the masses. Capitalism breeds war, but war is also the midwife of revolution.

Outlook for war

We should have considerable conditionality as to how the war will develop after that, because there are quite a few variables involved. For example, surrounded by war propaganda from all sides, it is difficult for us to clearly understand the current situation on the ground. However, Putin and his generals clearly seriously miscalculated the situation of the war. They had expected their troops to feel at home among Russian-speaking groups in Eastern Ukraine, but faced fierce resistance, both in Russian-speaking cities like Kharkov, and in their attempts to besiege Kyiv.

The possibility of a war between NATO and Russia now is much greater than the possibility of a war between the United States and the Soviet Union during any period of the Cold War. As NATO countries send a large amount of weapons and equipment to Ukraine, NATO and Russia are already in a state of local war. If Russia decides to attack NATO's supply lines on a large scale, or even attack Poland; or if NATO hastily set up a "no-fly zone" over part or all of Ukraine, any miscalculation of the development of the situation could escalate the situation into a full-scale war. Russian forces have already attacked a NATO supply depot in Xiu and have also hit another target in Xiu with hypersonic missiles.

A larger war between the US/NATO and Russia could still be "conventional", but the risk of both sides dropping nuclear bombs on each other would rise dramatically. Of course, with its potential consequences devastating to all warring parties, nuclear war remains unlikely. While the Soviet Union was still around, there were once precarious situations, such as the Cuban missile crisis, but one major factor limited the deterioration of the situation: Despite its terrible Stalinist regime, the Soviet Union was not an imperialist state. Its leadership prioritizes its own power and fears the outbreak of revolution, so it will seek mediation to "peaceful coexistence" with Western imperialism. In fact, the situation we are in now is far more dire than at any time during the first Cold War. Giving greedy, reactionary regimes like Putin, Xi Jinping, and a weakened U.S. imperialist regime a massive nuclear arsenal is the epitome of capitalism's threat to our very existence.

Putin based his war plan on the experience of operations in Crimea with Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014, Russia's military victory in Syria, and a calculation that Western imperialism would not directly intervene in Ukraine. Three and a half weeks after the war, the positions of NATO and U.S. imperialism have remained largely unchanged. So far, Biden is still firmly opposed to the establishment of a no-fly zone. It must be noted, however, that the parliaments of NATO members Estonia, Lithuania and Slovenia have all recently passed resolutions publicly calling for a no-fly zone. Although the weight of these countries in NATO is negligible, it still shows that there is a strong minority within NATO, and as the war progresses, NATO's "solidarity" may be further tested. The same is true that while most of NATO's members try to prevent direct military intervention, they have intervened in everything but military, which makes the path to military intervention smoother.

Will Russia fail militarily? What will be the result? It is clear that Putin's serious miscalculation of the invasion, coupled with the surging resistance of the Ukrainian people, has resulted in thousands of Russian casualties and low morale in the Russian army. At the time of writing, the Russian military has tried its best to control only one of the twenty largest cities in Ukraine. Nevertheless, the Russian army still has an overwhelming advantage in firepower. Following Russia's modern-day siege in Chechnya and Syria, the war has also entered a more brutal phase. Russia is also preparing to rely more heavily on mercenaries, which currently number 16,000 from Syria, as well as rioters from Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov and other "unconventional" forces.

But even if Russia reduces key cities to rubble and succeeds in capturing them, Russia faces the challenge of controlling the country. Based on the current situation, even if the Ukrainian people cannot defeat the Russian army on the frontal battlefield, their guerrilla resistance can cause heavy and sustained casualties to the Russian army and eventually lead to the defeat of the Russian army, just as the US military did in the Vietnam War. Once this is combined with an economic collapse, there will be mass unrest in Russia. The key difference between this "Vietnam scenario" and the Vietnam War was that the reactionary Ukrainian regime was an agent of Western imperialism, while the Viet Cong was founded on social revolution.

However, the impact of sanctions — including cutting Russia off from the Western financial system, revoking trade privileges and pulling Western companies out of the country — could be paradoxical. These will undoubtedly ripple through parts of the Russian urban middle class that are increasingly connected to the world economy and more pro-Western, but the threat of currency devaluation, inflation and mass unemployment will affect the working class at large. In the short term, however, sanctions can also bolster support for the regime on the part of the population, as it proves the West's claim to destroy Russia.

Putin now appears to be more concerned about the position of the oligarchs and the danger of a palace coup than a social revolt. The U.S. clearly aims to at least threaten Putin with "regime change" as part of the suppression of Russian imperialism. It's a dangerous game, as further setbacks could also throw Putin into a tailspin and possibly resort to further military escalation.

With the great danger posed by a possible escalation of war, the pressure to resort to a diplomatic solution will grow. For example, Putin's main ally, China, does not want an all-out war. But Putin is unlikely to agree to a deal at this stage because of the disadvantaged Russian military in Ukraine. Putin may use the negotiations to continue bombing Ukraine while waiting for reinforcements. The final deal could be based on Ukraine's acceptance of "neutrality" and the country's de facto division, with much of eastern Ukraine being effectively annexed by Russia. Putin will have to accept that the Zelensky regime runs a remnant state. Accordingly, the West may at least lift some of its sanctions.

wider impact

The Ukrainian war is closely related to the background of the Sino-US imperialist conflict, otherwise it is impossible to have a correct understanding of the Ukrainian war. There is no doubt that Biden is trying to use the "solidarity" of Western powers, devastating sanctions on Russia, and massive arms support to Ukraine to send a general warning to the Chinese regime, especially the consequences of invading Taiwan. An important difference between Taiwan and Ukraine is that Taiwan is much more strategically important to U.S. imperialism than Ukraine. If China's attempt to invade Taiwan succeeds, or if Taiwan turns sharply toward China, it will pose a decisive challenge to the strategic dominance of U.S. imperialism in the Indo-Pacific region, as well as to Japanese imperialism, India and other major regional powers. influences. Such a defeat by the United States would mark the end of the era of American imperialist hegemony and the victory of Chinese imperialism in this vital geopolitical region. The Ukrainian war has obviously strengthened the pro-American illusions of the Taiwanese people, and their support for the pro-American DPP government has also risen accordingly.

Of course, trying to impose similar sanctions on the Chinese economy would be an entirely different situation, given that China's role in the world economy is so much larger than Russia's. In effect, this would mean the complete collapse of the world economy.

American and Western imperialism was briefly intensified during the war, and Western "democratic" propaganda is now widely accepted among European and American populations. The positions of figures such as Macron, Johnson and Biden have been strengthened.

This situation will not continue. As the interests of the various imperialist powers diverge, cracks will begin to appear in the United Front of the Western countries, especially in the face of China, which will be more prominent than Russia. For example, the German economy relies heavily on industrial exports to China. The U.S. has struggled to pinpoint key "allys" in the Middle East and India because of their close military and trade ties with both China and the U.S. However, the war greatly strengthened the consolidation of the Western imperialist front against China, and the accelerated process of decoupling from the Chinese economy. It is this trend that dominates, not internal divisions in the West. As the masses become more aware of the real economic cost of war and which class will pay for it, the stage of the illusion of "national unity" will unravel.

We have said many times that a conflict between Chinese and American imperialism will tend to weaken both sides. But it is clear that at a given moment, one of the parties can gain a temporary advantage. U.S. imperialism now clearly has the upper hand, but the Chinese regime also sees that U.S. expansion is too much to escape the challenges of the rest of the world, and has withdrawn its troops from Afghanistan in order to focus on China’s challenges. But let's not forget that in 2020, as China's economy continued to grow, while the U.S. ruling class failed to contain the Covid-19 pandemic and faced enormous social pressure, China at one point seemed to have a considerable advantage.

At the same time, we should not underestimate the serious challenges the Xi regime faces in the short term. The Sino-Russian alliance has already caused a lot of trouble for the Xi Jinping regime because of the war. The Xi regime is also affected by the recession - which could be even bigger due to the severe real estate crisis, but if they are forced to abandon the "zero" policy because of the highly contagious Omicron variant A crisis will also bring disaster. Considering that the new crown virus has basically disappeared in mainland China in the past two years, and the protective effect of Chinese-made vaccines on Omicron is not good, this means that 1.4 billion people have to lack real immunity. Facing the threat of Omicron.

It cannot be ruled out that negotiations over the Ukraine war could help to "restart" Sino-US relations, but even that is only a temporary respite between the two sides. We cannot go back to the path of the past to the hyperglobalized neoliberal order.

Impact on the world economy

In 2020, the world economy experienced its worst contraction since the 1930s, followed by a major rebound, driven in part by (mostly in advanced capitalist countries) neo-Keynesian stimulus, including the injection of trillions of dollars into financial markets and providing less financial assistance to ordinary people. Central bankers and many bourgeois economists tell us that with inflation and interest rates near zero, all of this stimulus is sustainable. But the ISA pointed out that the conditions for such stimulus measures would not last. By the beginning of the year, that rosy picture was replaced by the highest inflation in the US in 40 years, Europe's highest in 30 years, and soaring global energy and food prices, largely caused by problems with global supply chains. , but this is also increasingly an inherent problem in the global economy. The notion that inflation is a "temporary" phenomenon is no longer valid.

Even before the war began, we pointed to the fragility of the world economy and several conditions that could trigger major financial crises, including the bursting of asset bubbles (especially the huge bubble in China's real estate sector). We also point out that the need for central banks to raise interest rates quickly could trigger a recession.

There is still a glimmer of hope that the pressure on the supply chain has begun to ease. With the start of the war, that glimmer of hope disappeared. Supply chains from Russia and Ukraine to much of the world have of course been cut. The cost of shipping containers could double or triple. A new round of lockdowns in key manufacturing hubs such as Shenzhen and Dongguan in China due to the coronavirus outbreak will exacerbate supply chain problems.

But the war's biggest impact on the world economy may be on energy and food prices. Energy prices are soaring as many Western countries start to stop buying Russian oil and gas while struggling to find alternatives to Russian products. This could be the biggest energy price turmoil since the mid-1970s, when it triggered a sharp global economic downturn that sent Western economies into a period of "stagflation" of slow growth and high inflation. Stagflation is a difficult problem to address through formal bourgeois monetary/fiscal policy measures.

While the OECD still forecasts global growth in 2022, it has lowered its forecast from 4.5% to 3.5%, while its forecast for the euro zone has dropped to just under 3%. Germany, the EU's largest economy, is likely already in recession. Many bourgeois economists now point out that geopolitical events are very likely to trigger recessions in some major economies and necessitate a rapid increase in interest rates to curb inflation (as the Fed has already done).

Global inflation will also lead directly to sovereign debt crises in many poor countries, as described in our draft document on the main world outlook. But the sharp rise in food prices is likely to have the most catastrophic impact on people in much of the neocolonial world. 12% of the world's calorie intake comes from Russia and Ukraine; we can predict a "vicious circle of inflation" for wheat, corn and other agricultural products. Before the war, food prices were already rising due to drought and high demand from economies under the pandemic. That could trigger the biggest food crisis since at least 2008, which was a key factor in the 2011 uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East, as well as protests and unrest elsewhere.

Ukraine is a major wheat supplier to the Middle East and North Africa. Currently, Lebanon has up to a month's worth of wheat reserves remaining. The Syrian government has begun rationing wheat, the price of bread has doubled in Egypt, the Tunisian government has banned public officials from commenting on wheat imports, and the World Food Program has called the war in Ukraine "a countdown to disaster for Yemen, which is heavily dependent on food imports." ". Soaring bread and flour prices in Sudan and Iraq have sparked mass demonstrations. These are just the first signs of a major social crisis and upheaval brewing in the MENA region, and elsewhere as well.

The world economy could take a further hit if Russia defaults on its sovereign debt, but Russia's corporate debt is actually much larger. While the Putin regime has sought to mitigate the impact of a severed global financial system and other sanctions by imposing strict controls on foreign currency holdings of domestic banks and Russian companies, as well as preparing to nationalize the assets of foreign companies that have closed operations GDP will fall by 6% to 20%. Another factor, of course, is China's willingness to provide some of Russia's economic support. This points to the emergence of two financial systems internationally, the disintegration of global supply chains, and the "returning" and "shored" of production (i.e. factories moving back to their home country, or to other countries adjacent to their home country) that we have already discussed, these trends will be accelerated by the war. These traits are reminiscent of the 1930s, which was marked by extreme nationalism, trade embargoes and the growth of closed economies.

shift in consciousness

The outbreak of this war, and the new era of global capitalism it heralded, is bound to produce a profound and significant shift in the consciousness of the working class and young people around the world. Every social class, including the bourgeoisie, is trying to understand the significance of what has happened and adjust its view of the future.

Just as we do not make absolute predictions about war or the economy, we cannot apply rigid paradigms to the development of worker consciousness. At the beginning of this century, our organization was involved in the mass movements against the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that swept the globe and played an important role in different regions. These two wars are wars of another era. These are not clashes of two tit-for-tat imperialist power blocs. Rather, these represent US imperialism's (after all, false) confidence that it is the unchallenged ruler of the world, free to plant puppets in important countries at will; and to use force when necessary. In the eyes of the masses in the West and the neo-colonial world, the aggressive role of Western imperialism is quite clear. Opposing war is closely related to opposing Bush, Blair and their accomplices.

The Ukrainian war took place in a completely different context. Today’s world is splitting in two at an accelerating rate, so in some ways this is more akin to the imperialist conflict war between two competing capitalist blocs in the early 20th century. Russia's backing to China (although initially ostensibly temporary); Zelensky's government has the backing of Western imperialism.

Especially in the first phase, the imperialist nature of this war complicates the consciousness of the masses compared to many recent conflicts. This is because the confrontation between the two imperialist blocs on Ukrainian soil is combined with a certain reasonable popular sympathy for the Ukrainian masses in the face of the brutal invasion and occupation of Russian imperialism. The world fears the consequences of war and the threat of escalation. There is widespread solidarity with the Ukrainian people — especially the millions of Ukrainian refugees — in many parts of the world. However, despite the many protests of various sizes in different countries, the international anti-war movement has not yet taken shape.

The most anti-war protests took place in Russia, which peaked in the first days of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Although the scale of the movement is small, it is significant. The Putin regime responded to them with extreme brutality. At the time of writing, the number of people arrested for speaking out against the war is estimated at more than 15,000 — a figure that attests to the palpable anger that exists among Russian workers and youth.

The Kremlin's propaganda war has affected the perception of the general public. Likewise, the Putin regime has stepped up its repression, imposing 15-year prison terms on those who "spread fake news," severely limiting access to official propaganda. Independent news organizations in Russia have been forced to close, and foreign media have left the country. At the same time, the combination of Putin's crackdown and Western sanctions has made social media sites, including Twitter and TikTok, extremely difficult to access. Putin is seeking to emulate the Iranian regime by using the devastating economic impact of Western sanctions to promote domestic support for nationalism and the regime, regardless of the cost to the working class.

All of this suggests that, at least in the short term, opposition forces in Russia - especially those based on workers' struggles and socialist ideology - will face an extremely difficult period. But none of this can rule out that if the war is protracted and difficult for the Russian regime, it will eventually fuel a wave of anger and opposition from below. While the exact number is disputed, we can be sure that thousands of Russian soldiers have already lost their lives in this war.

In the West, war is used as a shocking tool to significantly increase military spending by governments and to elevate the authority enjoyed by states and governments. As with so many other wars at the start, the state and the media vigorously promoted "national unity" and the West began to incite "Russophobia", leading to a surge in anti-Russian attacks and negative sentiment against ordinary Russian diasporas, especially in Eastern and Central Europe. Left-wing and Green parties previously opposed to arms exports and NATO military action - such as the majority of the left-wing congressional "squad" of the US Democratic Party, left-wing parties in the Nordic countries, part of the Labour left-wing in the UK, Podemos in Spain - Both have succumbed to issues such as Western sanctions against Russia and NATO's military aid to Ukraine. It's a measure of their political weakness and lack of confidence in the working class.

The excruciating suffering caused by Russia's indiscriminate bombing has created a strong sense of fear among the working class about what is happening now and has brought the victims of the war together. In Eastern Europe, this solidarity is combined with a very real fear that unless Putin is driven out, the nightmare of the Russian-Ukrainian war could repeat itself on them at any moment. It is understandable that NATO (and to a lesser extent, the European Union) is seen as providing strong protection against such attacks.

A common feature of past wars in this Ukraine war is that the early days of the conflict fostered a sense of "national unity" and temporarily boosted support for incumbent governments and politicians - including some who, until recently, had Those at risk, such as Biden, who faces a difficult mid-term election, and Johnson, the Prime Minister of the Conservative Party, appear to have successfully delayed plans within the Conservative Party to bring him down. For now, opinion polls show support for sanctions is high. Seventy-nine percent of Americans in a recent poll support a ban on Russian oil imports, even as much information has pointed out that sanctions could lead to higher energy prices. At the same time, like Biden, there are attempts to use the war to blame the inflation and cost-of-living crisis on “Putin-induced price increases.”

In addition, many Western countries highly support the strengthening of military assistance to the Ukrainian regime, even including helping to establish a "no-fly zone". Germany's postwar defense policy has undergone a dramatic shift. The budget proposed by the current German Chancellor Scholz may make the country's military budget the third largest in the world in the next five years, and polls show that as high as 75% of respondents Support this shift in German defense policy. That sentiment was also reflected in some of the country's mass protests against the Ukrainian war. And in the US, the slogan "Block the skies" is often used in relatively small protests - driven by the "pro-World War 3" wing of America's increasingly radical Republican Party (and many right-wing parties in Europe) and the establishment of a no-fly zone.

The sentiment reflects a sense that "something needs to be done" to stop Russia's bombing of Ukraine, but it also reflects a lack of understanding of what this military intervention really means. So, the consequence could be to turn this war into a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia, with all the dangers (including the nuclear threat) that come with escalating conflict.

In fact, for the first time, capitalists' new Cold War narrative has permeated significantly into the consciousness of a significant portion of the working and middle classes. The hypocritical world division of "authoritarian tyranny" by "liberal rule of law" is a weapon used by the ruling class to try to strengthen domestic social harmony. But major struggles by workers have continued since the war broke out. Even in the early days of the war, the "national unity" that the ruling class was trying to foster was severely suppressed.

Young people still generally oppose militarism. There is great anger at the failure of Western governments to accept Ukrainian refugees and offer help. Many are also consciously opposed to the racist double standards that exist in the treatment of refugees fleeing war and persecution. People fear and oppose the escalation of this war, especially now that the nuclear threat is looming. Depending on how events play out, this fear, against the escalation of the war situation, has the potential to become more important or even dominant.

At the same time, the mood in much of the neocolonial world was equally chaotic, of course in different forms. The massacres committed in these regions by U.S. imperialism (as well as by the British and other colonial powers) have left a deep mark, and these powers are trying to cover up these histories by condemning Russia's aggressor role in Ukraine. However, the crimes of the history of Western statism are prominent in the consciousness of workers in many neocolonial countries, making them even more distrustful of NATO, sometimes mixed with sympathy for Russia. Legacies of Cold War mentality and nostalgia for the former Soviet Union also play a role - such as the Soviet Union's past anti-apartheid stance in South Africa and, more broadly, its careful support of anti-colonial national liberation movements in parts of Africa. This anti-Western, pro-Russian sentiment has also been exacerbated by the racist treatment of black and Asian refugees in Ukraine and Western countries in the past, as well as the very different treatment of war victims by Western media in the neocolonial world.

Left-wing populist forces, such as the Economic Freedom Fighter (EFF) in South Africa, have embraced much of the Kremlin's position on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. On the other hand, in much of Latin America, a large part of the leadership of the labor movement is sympathetic to the Chinese government, and this part is very influential. All of these factors are hindering the development of large, united anti-war protests in the "Southern Hemisphere". In this context, we need to explain the nature of Putin's regime, including its capitalist nature, and highlight the independent role that the international working class can play.

Africa is a key battleground for the new Cold War and imperialist conflicts. The working class and the poor should not imagine that the Putin regime is a more progressive alternative to Western imperialism. Russia and China are also anti-working class imperialist countries that also contributed to social instability and war outbreaks in neo-colonial countries. The effects of the war may now exacerbate existing pressures, including extreme weather, devastated economies, and armed conflict that continues to create poverty, polarization, and mass exodus.

Importantly, the war further threatens food security in Africa, as large Russian and Ukrainian exports of wheat, soybeans, corn and other grains have been disrupted. Countries such as Egypt, Nigeria and Zimbabwe import 50 to 80 percent of their wheat from Russia. Soaring oil and commodity prices have given these countries an opportunity to align themselves with imperialist powers to accelerate the extraction of fossil fuels and commodities, moves that now have "strategic" and so-called "green energy" Packaging blessing.

The new Cold War has also intensified the "carve up of Africa". In order to ensure market share and profits, the original armed conflict will continue, destroying the livelihood of the majority of people. This will further increase population exodus across the continent, exacerbate the refugee crisis and human trafficking, and potentially exacerbate conflict and division. In South Africa, the July 2021 food riots saw boiling point anger among the masses, while a new escalation in xenophobic violence serves as a warning for the urgent establishment of a political alternative based on an international socialist platform , these social crises will be exploited by the reactionaries.

Potential to build an international anti-war movement

More and more people, especially young people, realize that under capitalism, the future we face will be more dangerous, most people will be poorer, and the survival of a large and growing part of the earth's population will be being threatened. Part of this understanding has to do with economic reality - it reflects a profound disbelief that the current system can provide stable jobs and homes, let alone improve lives, for the masses, even in the most advanced capitalist countries. level up. But now, in addition to the threat of climate catastrophe, we all face the danger of an increasingly widespread global military conflict that may even involve nuclear weapons. This fear will form an important part of the collective psyche of workers from now on.

Such awareness is not automatically revolutionary - it can create the possibility of despair, or so-called "doomsday". But this awareness does point to the serious damage that the capitalist system has seen in the eyes of the working class.

Therefore, on the basis of the international anti-war movement, it is still our task, implicit in this situation, to more clearly oppose the provocative acts of imperialist war on all sides. Our task is to fight to build such a movement and give it a working-class character. This means pointing to the potential role of the union movement in anti-war mobilization in the streets, as well as collective direct action by workers to prevent war. In the UK, the Netherlands and Sweden, we are already seeing the potential for this kind of action – workers refuse to offload Russian oil at the terminals. In Italy, workers protested against the Russian regime's invasion by strike action.

At the same time, we recognize that young people are likely to be the most easily mobilized into the streets and to be the most open to socialist ideas, at least initially. Anti-war activism can also be linked to issues such as climate change (anger over climate change will intensify after previous net zero commitments have been abandoned) and/or the treatment of refugees, and can be a part of our next phase of work important aspect.

So will our socialist feminist work. Anti-war slogans and messages of solidarity with the victims of the war in Ukraine dominated the protests, as shown by the many protests on March 8th. Women are expected to be among the hardest hit by the rising cost of living, the refugee crisis, the explosive growth in human trafficking and gender-based violence caused by war, and social spending cuts that accompany massive increases in military budgets. The war has also exacerbated existing inequalities, including gender oppression in Ukraine and elsewhere. Gender-based violence, already on the rise globally, is another horrific facet of numerous violent conflicts, including historically in Ukraine. There are reports that sexual violence is now rampant in Ukraine and is used to dampen the morale of the Ukrainian people's resistance. Additionally, those fleeing Ukraine (mostly women and children, as male citizens aged 18-60 are barred from leaving the country) are highly vulnerable to abuse by sex traffickers, as well as individuals seeking to use refugees for free labor or sex in exchange for accommodation . Searches for terms such as "Ukrainian girls" or "war porn" also increased significantly on the major porn sites from the first day after the invasion, the report showed. Female refugees are also vulnerable to being exploited by their families as free or cheap labour for jobs including domestic chores and care. This is exacerbated by governments transforming the refugee crisis from a collective and social responsibility into a personal issue. In addition, a rapidly and substantially increased military budget could sacrifice other budgets such as health and education. The worst affected are working-class women, who have taken on more work in the family.

In the long run, we should expect this war, and the broader imperialist conflict of which it is a part, to further exacerbate class tensions, expose the gangsterism of the capitalists, and push the masses toward the masses when they are forced to bear their costs. struggle. Indeed, we should expect the "intensification of central power" in the West in the first weeks of the war to be only temporary, and this crisis will eventually exacerbate the undercurrent of polarization. The new era of disorder will be more marked than the period following the Great Recession of 2008-9, characterized by the simultaneous development of revolution and counter-revolution. It will create opportunities for the left, including Marxists. At the same time, it will also generate further reaction space. Many (extreme) right-wing populists, including the likes of Orban in Hungary and Marine Le Pen in France, have had to try to distance themselves from their former friend Putin. Orban, for example, was even forced to accept over 180,000 Ukrainian refugees. Nonetheless, forces of nationalism, authoritarianism and right-wing populism, as well as (not just within Ukraine) far-right groups, will try to exploit the situation for harvest.

Faced with Russia and China, Western bourgeois politicians, regardless of party affiliation, are vying to become "hawks". Especially in Eastern Europe, nationalism and even ethnic and racial conflicts are heating up. These are the characteristics of the local "reactionary carnival" after the fall of Stalinism. The Ukrainian-Russian war in essence breeds nationalism and division. In general, politicians and parties in all regions of the world will be affected by the new Cold War situation, including elections.

Our program

In this case, our programme must be based on regular discussions and debates, regularly updated as new events develop. Most importantly, we have always had a unified programme - the core of which remains the same regardless of the circumstances of the world. But how we express our position, and which parts of the programme to focus on, will have to adapt to conditions around the world, and within the consciousness of the masses and at different levels of the working class.

Especially in countries with ISA chapters, we mobilized and clearly identified the role of various bourgeois states and their Cold War "camp". Taking Western capitalist countries as an example, opposition to the militarization and expansion of NATO has always been at the heart of our propaganda, although it is not an issue that is on the minds of the working class today, and we do not hesitate to do so. We stand up against all U.S. and Western imperialist military involvement - including against NATO supplying arms to the Ukrainian military, which would increase the threat and scale of the conflict.

In countries in the "other camp" of the Cold War, more precisely in countries oppressed by neo-colonialism, exposing Putin's bloodshed and the nature of the Chinese regime is undoubtedly our focus. We must point out to the working class and youth that Putin and Xi Jinping are reactionary, ultra-nationalist, racist, xenophobic, viciously anti-communist regimes. Also point out their counter-revolutionary actions in Burma, Kazakhstan and Belarus. We oppose rapid and dangerous military expansion from both camps, and we will not agree with NATO's actions or official anti-NATO political propaganda in China and Russia. We demand the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, the withdrawal of Western imperialist troops from Eastern Europe, and the dissolution of all military alliances such as NATO.

Karl Liebknecht, founder of the German Communist Party, famously said: "The main enemy is at home". This sentence does not mean that we do not need to treat the existing consciousness of the working class with a sensitive attitude, nor does it mean that we ignore the war crimes of the Putin regime, but we should be clear at any time, we must strive to mobilize the working class to unite and resist, against its true enemy. It also means that we must ruthlessly expose the role of all imperialism, starting with the local people living in these countries.

This also makes us skillfully emphasize that the current economic sanctions against Russia are not a "peaceful" and effective pressure on Putin, but make the working class the victims of this extremely cruel economic war - not only for Russia, the same goes for workers in other countries - so we need to find the best way to end this imperialist killing. The question of who is doing what and why is very important. We support all workers' anti-war action and strike to block arms shipments and other supplies used in military operations. We also highlight the potential role of the Russian working class, who will be a key force in ending Putin and his military expansionism.

In Ukraine, we stress the right of the working class to organize and arm themselves. We stress that the power of the working class will eventually mobilize the army to stop the invasion, and it will also lead to class demands against the reactionary Zelensky regime and its far-right armed groups. We support the right of all peoples to self-determination and the guarantee of the rights of minorities. In addition, we also emphasize that all working-class self-defense organizations should accept the above point of view, so as to unite with each other and not be weakened, and also avoid being forced to cooperate with or exploit forces hostile to the working class, so as not to betray the interests of the working class.

Looking at all of the above, we must strengthen our call for an end to militarization, so that the working class can lead to broader issues of socialist change in the face of economic, social and environmental struggles. A new wave of recessionary crises may temporarily bring working-class confidence to a low ebb, but the current high inflation, low growth and experience since the Covid-19 pandemic have strengthened the potential of the working class and will set up a new and fierce class struggle stage.

When governments sanction and seize property of Russian oligarchs, that property can be returned to public ownership to secure jobs and protect workers' rights. When defense budgets hit record highs, we pointed out that those budgets could be used to build refugee housing, or to boost public service budgets. While a lot of budgets are devoted to digging for oil, we point to new green energy transition options and the establishment of public ownership and a democratically planned economy.

Finally, we take every opportunity to highlight the fact that future wars, conflicts and environmental damage can only be avoided if the international working class rises to power. We therefore point to the urgent need to forge a genuine international workers' revolutionary party - a party that can lead the struggle and change the world.