The Taiwan Strait issue may end sooner than the "Ukraine crisis"

Since the deterioration of the situation in Russia and Ukraine in early January 2022, the United States has provided various "brilliant scripts" for the development of the conflict.

First, Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center for Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy, said on February 9 that Russia's Chen Bing's primary goal was to obtain Ukraine's public commitment not to join NATO, but this requirement "has been refuted by the United States. With NATO clear rejection", Vladimir Putin may turn to new options such as "assassination, poisoning and coup".

On February 11, the German media "Der Spiegel" released information received from "several diplomats and German high-level officials", saying that the U.S. military had conducted a secret briefing to NATO countries, informing "Russia may be at the earliest on the 16th." Japan’s attack on Ukraine”; the briefing also presented Russian tactics and route options. The United States believes that the Russian army is most likely to cross the border from Belarus and use Internet attacks and missile strikes to paralyze Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

As soon as the above news came out, global public opinion instantly boiled over. Not only did the "evacuation of overseas Chinese" happen one after another, but also major media launched a series of analyses before the countdown to the crisis around the mysterious figures of "February 16". However, the nature of the crisis in Ukraine, in addition to the ownership of Ukraine and the eastward expansion of NATO, is more related to the psychology of the United States and Russia.

Three Purposes of the Hype Crisis

This development reveals that the United States, also a player of extreme pressure, is more eager for short-term profits in this crisis than Russia on the other side of the Atlantic, otherwise it would not have been coordinated with Ukraine or even reached a consensus with NATO. , rashly exaggerating the "war" public opinion. In the end, apart from the cooperation of small Eastern European countries such as Lithuania and Estonia, most of NATO went its own way. French President Emmanuel Macron even negotiated with Putin on his own and did not unite under Washington.

This kind of solo self-investment may be somewhat beyond the United States' expectations, but it still does not prevent it from completing the script. Under the initial calculations of the United States, hyping Russia's imminent invasion of Ukraine may achieve three goals: internal public support, international allies' concentricity, and the return of financial market funds.

First of all, in terms of internal public opinion, the Joe Biden government is about to usher in the mid-term elections. According to the current public opinion, the Republican Party will have a high probability of winning, while the Democratic Party is unlikely to see the light of day in the short term. In construction, Biden has no outstanding political achievements, and the disgraced face of withdrawing troops from Afghanistan has severely damaged the image of the ruling team. Therefore, if there is an "international crisis" for Biden to call the wind and the rain, and at the same time show the drastic and resolute actions of the United States, it may stimulate the return of votes and ease the Democratic Party's midterm election decline.

In calling on international allies, the United States intends to take advantage of the Ukraine crisis to consolidate its leadership, activate NATO, which is gradually brain-dead, and at the same time win over old European regions such as Germany and France, and even hinder the start of the connection of Nord Stream II. , this goal is obviously a failure. Compared with becoming an international leader with stars and moons, the United States looks more like a lonely tyrant who has lost control of his emotions. As for the flow of funds to manipulate financial markets, this crisis has indeed played a role. Ukrainian President Zelens Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on January 28 that under the international panic, at least $12.5 billion of funds have been withdrawn from Ukraine, and figures such as Asia-Pacific stock markets, U.S. stock markets, U.S. dollar index, spot gold and crude oil futures are accompanied by News scrolling and conversations with U.S. officials fluctuated repeatedly.

In other words, the United States is trying its best to hype up the Ukraine crisis, with unknown results in stimulating election elections, and unsatisfactory in consolidating leadership prestige, but it has achieved quite a lot in disturbing the financial market. After all, it has achieved nothing. However, the reason why it can make a high-profile shot, in addition to the desire for the above-mentioned goals, is that Russia has no intention of invading Ukraine. "Multidimensional News" once analyzed in the article " If Russia and Ukraine Go to War: Two Premises and One Ending " in January 2022, unless Kiev firmly believes that the United States is willing to pay for it, and thus enter Udong on a large scale, the probability of war breaking out is almost Zero; the United States is aware of this, so it can boldly hype various "war scenarios" without worrying too much about the follow-up risks of "imagination coming true".

The structure of the Taiwan Strait is different from that of Ukraine

However, compared with the "fake move" like the Ukraine crisis, the Taiwan Strait issue on the east side of Asia is much more serious.

First, it is the political demands and strengths of both sides of the conflict. The "unification" dispute involved in Ukraine is that the Kyiv authorities intend to "unify" Ukraine by force, not Russia's desire to "unify" Ukraine. Therefore, under the premise of Russia's overwhelming advantage, Ukraine can maintain its substantial independence for many years. As long as Ukraine does not provoke Moscow's bottom line, apart from small-scale exchanges of fire, it will be a long stalemate. Even if there is a change in sovereignty, it is more likely that Ukraine will split, rather than the return of Ukraine to Kyiv.

However, looking at the current structure of the Taiwan Strait, Beijing bears the political requirement of "reunification of the two sides of the strait", and has the absolute strength of "unification of Taiwan by military force", and with the passage of time, the gap between the military and economics of the two sides of the strait will only widen rather than narrow, so historical development is inevitable. Moving towards unity, the stalemate of division will be difficult to last, and the rest is a matter of timing and method.

The second is the interaction between the United States and its adversaries. In the dilemma of East Ukraine, the United States and Russia have no need to exchange fire. The former never thought of sending troops to join the war, while the latter intends to intimidate Chen Bing, and the current split situation is not only dissatisfied with the Kyiv authorities, but it is really unsatisfactory for the United States and Russia. There is no serious harm, and it can be used by both sides to operate brinkmanship of war, so there is no need for a final decision. In addition, the US-Russia relationship is no longer as tense as it was in the Soviet Union. Although Russia is feared by the US in the geographical and military fields, it is not the primary opponent of the US today.

But the Sino-US interaction is different. The Taiwan Strait issue is not only a legacy of China's civil war, but also the result of the game between China and the United States. It can be called the direct front line of the conflict. In the past, Washington may have used its military advantages and economic strength to "maintain stability" in the Taiwan Strait. Beijing is also in the "China-US friendship". Considering the overall situation, we agreed to "ambiguously handle" the Taiwan issue, so there will be decades of "Republic of China on Taiwan". In short, a "divided China" is good for the US, and for Beijing in the past, it's a deadlock that needs no immediate resolution.

However, time changes. Today's China is not only leaping forward in the economic field, but also surpassing the United States in military technology. Washington's anxiety erupted from this, like a volcanic lava unstoppable, and began to revolve around public opinion, technology, and geopolitical fields. In the offensive against China, the "Sino-US game" has replaced the "US-Russian conflict" and has become the first major axis to rotate international relations. In this context, the role of the "Taiwan card" is becoming more and more important, and it has the potential to become the core of the Sino-US competition. At present, the "divided China" is still beneficial to the United States, but it has already posed a serious threat to Beijing, like a sharp edge quenched by poison Hidden weapons, causing China to continue to lose blood. It was in this stormy sea that "actively promoting reunification" gradually came to the forefront, replacing the past "pure anti-independence" thinking. Form gangs.

The former reflects the U.S.'s possible perception of the overturning of the Taiwan Strait. Therefore, considering the extension of the "Taiwan brand" life span, it will limit its strength, such as interrupting the video footage of Tang Feng smuggling "One China, One Taiwan" at the Democracy Summit, etc. The purpose is not for Taiwan. The idea is to increase the remaining time for him to play with Taiwan and attack Beijing; the latter exposes the United States' concern that it is difficult to deter China. Therefore, it is necessary to coerce Japan to "concern" the Taiwan Strait, establish AUKUS with the United Kingdom and Australia, and form a view in East Asia. The seemingly long Chinese encirclement creates "virtual strength", and the purpose is to increase the survival probability of the "Taiwan brand".

The two strands of thinking intertwined, preventing the possibility of the United States concocting a "virtual crisis" in the Taiwan Strait. After all, Beijing is indeed willing to unify Taiwan, and the "virtual strength" of the United States is difficult to be tested by a "real crisis", and Washington may be able to hype "red infiltration" issue, or selling expensive arms to Taipei, but it is impossible to repeat the "war prophecy" that was staged in Ukraine and mobilize the global media to publicize it when the Taiwan Strait is tense.

The situation in the Taiwan Strait in the past few decades may be similar to today's Wudong. With the seemingly tense but tacit acquiescence of the major powers, it has been able to maintain an ambiguous state; now the situation is changing, and the gears of history have already started. With changes in thinking, the resolution of the Taiwan Strait issue may be faster than the dust of Wudong's predicament.

The original text was published on 2022/2/19 " Multidimensional News "