Sino-US-Russian Offense and Defense | Sino-Russian Friendship Depends on How to "Distribute Tasks"

The original text was published on 2021/8/22 " Multidimensional News "

Afghanistan, located in Central Asia, after nearly 20 years of invasion and destruction by the U.S. military, finally buried the invaders, causing the U.S. military to evacuate in an extremely embarrassed hurry, marking the shrinking of the strength of the "world police", and it is difficult for the United States to pass through Afghanistan. Threats are projected to Russia's "soft belly" in Central Asia and Xinjiang in northwest China, but there is also a power vacuum in the region, which is left to all forces to fill. What is particularly noticeable is that before the US military stepped out of Afghanistan, Kabul was attacked by the Taliban with lightning speed. Is it a paper tiger? Will the PLA have the courage to "make a difference" in the Taiwan Strait? Will Russia re-consolidate its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe? How will an ugly America redistribute tasks with its allies?

Russia has made precise shots to force the United States and its icebreakers to seek easing

In the face of the U.S. military's ugly appearance in Afghanistan, the public opinion in mainland China is eager to take the rhetoric of military unification of Taiwan, and Russia is the one who can best "embolden" the PLA. After all, among the major powers in the world today, apart from the U.S. military, there are only a few The Russian army has the richest actual combat experience, and has grabbed the fat that may fall into the mouth of the United States several times, thereby protecting its core interests. For example, the Crimea incident in 2014 retained the right to use the Black Sea Fleet in the naval port of Sevastopol, and when it deterred the Black Sea waters, it also stifled the possibility of the NATO fleet entering the Sea of Azov; The skillful use of diplomatic means made the US military lose the legitimacy of entering Syria, and cooperated with military means to assist the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria to suppress the rebel forces in the country and keep the Tartus in Syria. ) the leasehold of the naval port. Although Russia is forced to use military force due to the situation, it achieves its strategic goals with limited and precise use each time, and it is undoubtedly the object that the PLA is trying to learn from.

During April 2021, the confrontation between the Kyiv regime in Ukraine and Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukrainian escalated, and Russia quickly deployed the Russian-Ukrainian border to deter Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Vladimir Zelensky's plan to launch an offensive, and then quickly withdraw his troops, fully demonstrating the rapidity of action, allowing the Minsk Agreement to continue.

The United States and NATO have always lost their faces. Since then, the two sides have also conducted military exercises aimed at each other. For example, in June, NATO launched a joint landing combat exercise in the Baltic Sea region, and Russia was almost simultaneously in Pakistan. Anti-submarine and anti-landing exercises were carried out in the Lents Sea; the United States dispatched nuclear submarines in the Western Pacific waters, and Russia also dispatched the Pacific Fleet to patrol around Pearl Harbor. However, with the US and Russia seeking an ice-breaker after the summit between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the US lifted sanctions on the "Nord Stream 2" pipeline, Russia It also promised to curb hacker attacks on U.S. companies.

The tension between the United States and Russia still continues, but the United States seeks to find a stop loss in Russia and free up its hands to deal with China. Since Russia was targeted by the United States in 2014, it also hopes that the United States will shift its focus elsewhere. in order to seek to restore its own economic power.

The United States wants to gather allies to deploy to besiege China

The relationship between the United States and Russia has eased, and China will not be unaware of it, and China itself has also been provoked by American allies.

From time to time, India makes a false move in the Galwan Valley (Galwan Valley) on the southwestern border of China. Although China and India are currently negotiating the withdrawal of troops, there are still sporadic clashes between the troops of the two sides holding cold weapons from time to time, and Modi ( Narendra Modi also did not give up intensifying the conflict with China to deflect the political pressure at home.

In the Pacific region, Japan has continuously adopted "Taiwan-friendly behavior", including high-profile donations of AZ vaccines, exercising joint defense rights with the US military against Taiwan, deploying missiles on Ishigaki Island, and planning to launch the Izumo (DDH-183) and Kaga ( DDH-184) was transformed into a light aircraft carrier that can carry F-35B vertical take-off and landing fighter jets; Australia fought a trade war with China by virtue of its own pricing power in iron ore supply, and also said that when there is a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, troops will be sent to defend Taiwan; Canada Meng Wanzhou, the CFO of Chinese tech giant Huawei, is detained and ready to extradite her to the United States at any time.

The Sino-Russian alliance relationship that is difficult to separate but not lacking in calculation

In this case, Russia is bound to become a back-to-back informal alliance that China must maintain at all costs. As soon as Russia goes west, it has a strong military presence in the Baltic Sea and Black Sea regions. Its headquarters is located in the Western Military District of St. Petersburg. Mobile units across the country, while the Southern Military District, headquartered in Rostov-on-Don, suppressed Ukraine.

In the east, Russia also has disputes with Japan in the southern Kuril Islands. Japan has always hoped to take back the four islands they call the northern archipelago. Mikhail Mishustin visited Etori Island in late July, showing his uncompromising stance on the territory of the area, strengthening the area's air defense system, upgrading the garrisons in the area, and announcing that missile firing drills will be carried out, It is quite difficult for Japan, but Russia's military power in the Far East is far from being strong enough to control the war situation in the Western Pacific region, and it is actually closer to a defensive deployment.

Russia and China also have close and warming economic exchanges. China is increasingly buying natural gas and timber from Russia. Russia is also eager for Chinese companies to invest in infrastructure such as high-speed railways and telecommunication towers. There is no reason for the two countries to turn against each other at this stage.

However, the situation between China and Russia is still difficult to resolve in a short period of time. People in the Russian Far East are dissatisfied with the situation of Chinese merchants controlling the retail industry. Huawei's participation in the local 5G construction is far from assured; the Chinese people are still turning to old accounts from time to time, detailing the history of Russia's occupation of Waixing'anling, Liusitun in Jiangdong, and the Hailanpao massacre (Gengzi Russian disaster). At the same time, neither of China nor Russia is willing to take the initiative to be targeted by the United States. For Russia, it is difficult to breathe a little. If China really launches an offensive against Taiwan, there is no need to take action immediately.

In the three-way game between China, the United States, and Russia, the United States is obviously the party that takes the initiative to play cards and provoked troubles, and instigates its allies to provoked in turn, so that China and Russia have to passively form an informal alliance system. It can be said that "China and Russia" Friendship depends on the United States” is not an exaggeration, and it is also conceivable that if the United States no longer exists, the relationship between China and Russia may be worse than imagined.