The non-agricultural night is coming, and the "real hammer" of the US economic recession is coming?

hot spot

At 8:30 tonight, the US Department of Labor will announce the non-farm payrolls report for July. The previous non-farm payrolls data for June exceeded expectations, so the Fed has the confidence to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in July, but with the announcement last month The U.S. GDP has shrunk for consecutive quarters. The risk of economic recession has greatly increased at present. Coupled with the previously released employment indicators, the sharp cooling of the labor market in July has become the consensus of the market. According to a compilation of data compiled by Bloomberg, most economists expect , non-agricultural employment increased by 250,000 in July, a sharp drop from 372,000 in June, the lowest record since January 2021; the unemployment rate was flat at 3.6%, remaining at the lowest level in 50 years; average hourly earnings year-on-year An increase of 4.9%, slightly lower than the previous value of 5.1%. So the key is to see how the data tonight is. If it is lower than or in line with expectations, it will be an important signal of market recession, which will restrict the Fed’s interest rate hike in September, and vice versa.

Recently, the crude oil market has continued to decline. WTI crude oil futures have fallen to 88.6 compared to last week's high of 101 US dollars. As I said before, in the current market conditions, oil prices are approximately equal to the immediate inflation level, so the trend of oil prices is similar to that of US stocks. It is also diametrically opposite, and the crypto market is similar, and it is precisely because of the weak oil price that more experts start to look forward to the arrival of interest rate cuts in 2023​.

In addition to the recession crisis in the United States, the Bank of England also said last night that the United Kingdom is expected to enter a recession in the fourth quarter of 2022, the recession will last for 5 quarters, GDP will decline by 2.1%, and inflation will reach a peak of 13.3% in October 2022. With a forecast of just over 11% in October 2022​, it can be seen that the Bank of England is increasingly pessimistic about a recession​. However, although the Bank of England has begun to pay attention to recession, the UK raised interest rates by 50 basis points in compliance with previous expectations last night, the largest interest rate hike in 27 years, and the interest rate level also reached the highest level since December 2008.

Yesterday, both coinbase stocks and FLOW tokens skyrocketed because of their cooperation with meta. Although the news was announced a long time ago, this time because the CEO of meta, Mark Zuckerberg, personally mentioned it, so it is equivalent to old news and new news. It’s fried, but the first NFT public chain supported by meta does indeed have a certain strength​. In addition, Sister Mutou has just cut the meat COIN, and as a result, the COIN has skyrocketed. ​It really shows that the old will not go to the new, and only the front waves will admit defeat and surrender, and the back waves will enter the market.

A lot of crypto funds have emerged recently. For example, Brevan Howard Asset Management launched a $1 billion cryptocurrency hedge fund, and Lattice Capital also raised $60 million for its second cryptocurrency fund. .

South Korean crypto trading platform Bithumb announced Thursday that Bithumb is connecting its system with the mobile apps of three major South Korean financial institutions (Samsung Securities, NH Nonghyup, and KB Kookmin). Bithumb users can now check the latest cryptocurrency prices and digital asset investment status such as yields through Samsung mPOP, NH Smart Banking and NH Allone Bank, and KB StarBanking mobile apps. Thanks to South Korea’s top-down support for encryption, the road for South Korean exchanges is getting smoother.

One more thing about SOL. Yesterday someone broke out that the TVL data on the SOL chain is fake, and the person who faked it was Ian Macalinao, chief architect of Saber. It is said that this product has 11 fake identities, including the Solana ecological DeFi revenue aggregator protocol Surya Khosla, the developer of Sunny, 0xGhostchain, the founder of the Solana algorithm Stablecoin project Cashio, and Goki Rajesh, the founder of the multi-signature wallet Goki, etc. The reason why this guy can fake TVL is because he wrote the TVL algorithm on the sol chain, which allows him to reuse a lot of tvl data, so the TVL explosion of the sol chain is like this, but the whistleblower should Not only has a grudge against SOL, but also seems to be targeting the new public chain APTOS, because the fund established by Ian Macalinao has mainly revolved around aptos recently. He is also an investor in aptos. Maybe the person who broke the news is the person from Sui.​ After all, they are both competitors of Libra.

Quotes

BTC: After today, you will know if the 4-hour level has been effectively supported. If it stands above 23400 again, it means that the retracement of the short-term level has ended and the bottom of the short-term level has obtained effective support. Otherwise, it is still a trend of continuous adjustment, but no matter how much adjustment is made, the rebound is still valid. Finish.

The 4-hour level is near the upper resistance of 24200, the real upper resistance is around 28000, and the lower support is around 22000.

ETH: Yesterday, Justin Sun bluntly said that poloniex will support the potential fork coins of Ethereum, and he will also donate some assets to the fork team. Today, Buterin also said that the centralized stable currency will play a decisive role in the fork process of Ethereum. Just imagine If USDC or USDT supports a fork, then this chain can at least store some value, but it is still difficult to replicate the prosperous ecology of Ethereum, but since there are second-tier exchanges willing to support it, it is likely to fail. Force the first-line majors to give airdrops, so that the liquidity and price of airdrop coins will be available. In short, whether it is well-intentioned, malicious, leeks or the fork of true POW believers, no matter whether it is successful or not, the price of ETH will be affected. It is said to be beneficial, so continue to hold the spot for a long time.

FLOW: Last night, the founder of meta, Xiao Zha, took the initiative to announce the cooperation with FLOW, and that FLOW is the first public chain supported by meta. The strength of the chain is super first-class. After all, meta users exceed 2 billion. However, even if FLOW has unlimited potential in the long run, the short-term increase is too fast. At present, the empowerment problem of FLOW tokens has not been solved, so FLOW is still a long-term investment. If you have a long-term plan, you can wait for the callback before getting on the bus.​

[Disclaimer] The above content does not constitute any investment advice. According to the relevant documents of the "Risk Warning on Preventing Illegal Fund Raising in the Name of [Virtual Currency] [Blockchain]" issued by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and other five departments in August 2018, please Look at the blockchain rationally, and don’t blindly trust others. The digital asset market is extremely volatile and risky, and you need to be highly cautious when entering the market.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, put an end to the full-cow stud, and refuse loan leverage.