The New Cold War: Where Does the Ukraine Conflict Go?

The original link of the China Labor Forum: https://chinaworker.info/zh-hans/2022/02/25/31719/

Telegram link of China Labor Forum: https://t.me/chinaworkerISA

Twitter link of China Labour Forum: https://twitter.com/OctRevolution1 7

If you are interested in subscribing to "Socialist" magazine, please send an email to: chinaworker.isa@gmail.com

Russia recognizes two disputed regions of Ukraine - Donetsk and Luhansk - as independent states. The Russian military will act as "peacekeepers". This marks another extremely dangerous period that could culminate in the worst European war since World War II.

Socialist Alternative (ISA Russia) reports

(Note: This article was first published on February 22, 2022)

Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that Russia will recognize two disputed regions of Ukraine - Donetsk and Luhansk - as independent states. The Russian military will act as "peacekeepers". This marks another extremely dangerous period that could culminate in the worst European war since World War II.

For more than three months, the warmongers have been inciting hysteria about the war. The Western powers announced that at 3:00 am local time on February 16, Russia will begin to occupy Ukraine. As the deadline loomed, the warmongers were getting louder and louder, and there was a degree of panic within Ukraine. The Ukrainian government announced the mobilization of the army and reservists. The country's airline suspended flights, and those seats that were still available were priced 5 times as much as before - after all, war is always profitable for some! The 40 nations announced they were evacuating the families of diplomats from Kyiv - some to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. They used 20 chartered flights to evacuate VIPs, oligarchs and their families, while military aid and equipment poured into Ukraine.

At the same time, the local people are asked to "don't panic"!

As the deadline passed, a Russian newspaper hypocritically commented that "the war has been delayed". Many Ukrainians were undoubtedly relieved when they woke up on Wednesday. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called claims by some U.S. officials that Russia was about to invade Ukraine "shameful". She asked the media for a timeline of Russia's invasion of Ukraine so she could schedule a vacation. The Kremlin, speaking on February 16, said it had overcome "anxiety around the world in an absolutely unprecedented propaganda campaign to provoke and inflame tensions in Europe".

Tensions continue to escalate. The White House claims an invasion of Ukraine is imminent. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the Kremlin would take over the entire country, while British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss spoke of Russia's readiness to take control of Eastern Europe.

The Kremlin has disputed those claims, denying they had plans for an invasion. The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video showing the country's troops and equipment returning to the barracks. However, instead of letting the Russian troops stationed in Belarus "participate in joint military exercises", it is better to announce that they will stay in Belarus forever. Russia's new war exercise to test hypersonic ballistic missiles over the weekend continued to cause uproar.

Conflict heats up in eastern Ukraine

More worrying signs emerged over the weekend. The border between the two republics of eastern Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk (DNR/LNR), in the Kyiv-controlled area and the disputed area, began on Friday morning. As local residents say, this is nothing new, as the war has been going on for 8 years and more than 14,000 people have been killed (although the number of dead has increased dramatically). The observer for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe reported that the exchange of fire took place in more than 30 locations. Later in the day, a jeep belonging to the Donetsk police chief was blown up outside his office, yet one local resident commented that he had never seen such a high-ranking officer drive such a cheap car.

On Monday, the Russian Security Council held an apparently scripted video conference. One high-level figure after another has called for the recognition of the two disputed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. He was corrected by Putin when the attorney general said he supported calls for the Donetsk and Luhansk republics to join the Russian Federation. Putin said there was no discussion about (incorporation into Russia): we were only talking about recognizing Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.

Later in the evening, Putin appeared on television to "address the nation." In a half-hour retrospective that stretches back to the 9th century, he explains that Ukraine has been part of Russia since ancient times. In an important part of his speech, he attacked Lenin and the Bolsheviks, saying that they "modern Ukraine was created entirely by Russia, or rather, Bolshevik-Communist Russia... Lenin and his accomplices took a kind of anti-Russian approach." In a very brutal way in itself, it did this - by separating, alienating part of Russia's own historical territory." However, in Putin's words, Stalin "reunited it back to the Soviet Union around the time of the 'Great Patriotic War' (World War II)..." Putin continued his speech, expressing his support for Stalinism's approach to national issues after the Russian Revolution Attitude - At that time, Stalin advocated the establishment of the Russian Socialist Federation, subordination of Ukraine to Russia, and Lenin advocated the establishment of the Soviet Union on the basis of equal status between Ukraine and Russia.

Putin went on to describe the wave of corruption sweeping Ukraine, a lack of democracy and what he called a Western-backed coup in 2014. He criticized those in power for organizing acts of harassment and real terror against those who oppose these "unconstitutional actions." Politicians, journalists, activists were ridiculed and publicly humiliated. Ukrainian cities have been hit by a wave of massacres and violence, a series of public murders with impunity. Many people who read this speech will wonder if he is talking about Russia himself!

Finally, Putin announced that Russia will now officially recognize the independent state status and sovereignty of Donetsk and Luhansk. The Russian army was ordered to enter the two republics as "peacekeepers". According to reports, Russian tanks have arrived in Donetsk within hours.

This move is extremely dangerous. "The entry of Russian troops into the Donbass region is nothing new," a "senior US diplomat" said yesterday. But this idea is very naive. It is clear that the borders of the "independent republic" will be the site of conflict.

Neither the Donetsk nor the Luhansk republics occupy the entire former Donetsk and Luhansk region - considerable parts of these two regions are still under the control of Kyiv, in Donetsk for example: the region 400 More than 40% of the population of 10,000 people, and 2/3 of the area is still under the control of Kyiv. Leonid Kalashnikov, a senior member of the Russian State Duma who is a member of the "Russian Communist" party, called on the Russian army to take over the entire Donetsk and Luhansk. If the role of "peacekeepers" is to confront Ukrainian forces on the current front line to take over all of Donetsk and Luhansk, the danger of the war escalating sharply and spiraling out of control is very real.

Is there any hope for diplomacy?

Diplomatic talks may continue after the Munich Security Conference over the weekend, but it will almost certainly be too late to have any impact. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed disappointment at Putin, but hoped the talks could continue.

During the Munich conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was deeply unhappy with the West's inaction. The United States has tried from the very beginning to create a united front with the European Union against Russia. What this united front must overcome is German resistance to the threat of sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Speaking at the conference, US Secretary of State Blinken praised the Green Party's foreign minister Annalena Baerbock for acting in a coordinated, complementary manner, while Scholz pledged that Germany needs "airplanes that fly, ships that go to sea, The dangerous missions of the best equipped soldiers - these are things a country of our size, a country with a very special responsibility in Europe, must be able to afford. And thanks to our allies in NATO. But behind the bloodthirsty speeches on the situation in Ukraine by the likes of Britain's ambassador to Ireland, Paul Johnston, Zelensky's call for "preventive sanctions" against Russia was ignored.

The focus then shifted to Macron. During the Munich conference, he announced that he had "personal assurances" from Putin. Of course, this is not the first time a Munich conference like this has been held, and in 1938 former British Prime Minister Chamberlain also received his personal assurance after his meeting with Hitler. The British defense minister spoke of "the smell of Munich in the air", suggesting that the outcome of the meeting was a repeat of the "appeasement policy" that preceded World War II. At least Macron is not waving the signed peace agreement as Chamberlain did. Nonetheless, the next phase is expected to be a return to the "Normandy model" - the implementation of the "Minsk 2" ceasefire by France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia, and the status of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics Negotiate. If there is now a slight chance of a diplomatic agreement, they will also talk on those issues.

Reaching an agreement is far from easy. Even if Russia does not invade Ukraine further, Russia will use its substantial occupation of these two republics to exert enormous pressure on Kyiv. Zelensky, however, will be under enormous pressure not to budge. But the existence of the two republics of Donetsk and Luhansk would prevent Ukraine from joining NATO or the European Union, and a state that cannot secure its own borders is unacceptable.

Suffering in Eastern Ukraine

People living in the republics of Donetsk and Luhansk are currently bearing the brunt of the crisis. Over the weekend, pro-Russian military leaders announced the mobilization of their Wehrmacht and the evacuation of women, children and the elderly to Russia. Thousands of people were evacuated overnight but were left to sleep on dilapidated buses in sub-zero temperatures. Many felt they were fleeing unnecessarily in panic - one mother recounted how she was lobbied to flee with her children and didn't even have time to tell her husband.

Meanwhile, the hypocritical Russian politicians are out of touch with reality. When Russian television reported that refugee children and grandmothers crying from eastern Ukraine arrived in Russia, State Duma lawmakers proposed that they be placed in apartments where people who died from the coronavirus had lived. Others have suggested sacrificing the state employee's 13th month salary, the year-end bonus to make up for low wages, to pay for these placements. Patients who recovered from serious illnesses were transferred out of hospitals, and student dormitories were converted to receive refugees.

Numerous reports from within the Donetsk and Luhansk republics indicate a deep distrust of the local government. People who spoke to the media on condition of anonymity said the exchanges were exaggerated; they complained that they could not speak publicly on the phone because they knew they were being monitored. As one commentator put it: "The rich, the businessmen, the bankers and the bandits - they all left in 2014". Others spoke of wars waged by politicians.

The interests of ordinary people in Ukraine are sacrificed

Ukraine could suffer heavy losses from the changing situation in the coming months and even years. Foreign companies have been pulling out, and $15 billion in capital has already flowed out as the war rages on, a figure that far exceeds the roughly $2 billion in financial aid pledged by the U.S. and European Union over the past week.

This was reflected in Zelensky's speech at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend. He spoke of Ukraine as "Europe's shield" but also accused both NATO and the European Union of refusing to accept Ukraine's accession to them since 2014. He warned that the Budapest Security Memorandum (a 1994 agreement in which Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons stockpiles in exchange for security guarantees) left Ukraine neither weapons nor secure. At this point, Zelensky said, "We will not fulfill our obligations." He continued: "If we are told every day that there will be war tomorrow, what is there in this country but panic? What will our economy look like? You tell us: make reforms, improve governance, fight corruption —Then we will help you. But on our borders, there are 150,000 Russian soldiers stationed. Maybe you should do something for us before asking us to do something?”

new cold war

The current situation is one of the processes in which countries around the world are increasingly divided and re-aligned between Chinese and American imperialist interests. NATO has been strengthening its military presence in Eastern Europe, and now has military bases in Poland, Romania and three Baltic states bordering the former Soviet Union (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania). 12,000 NATO troops support 250,000 local troops in these countries. The U.S. Department of Defense has provided Ukraine with $1.65 billion in military aid since 2016, while the U.K. has provided Ukraine with $1.7 billion in military aid since 2020. Other NATO powers such as Canada, France and Turkey, as well as the Baltic states, have also provided aid (albeit on a much smaller scale). Amid the current tensions, NATO has quickly sent more troops and equipment to Ukraine and its neighbors. This is exactly the result of the Biden administration's tough line, with claims that China is "the greatest competitor to the United States" and Russia is the "country that poses the greatest threat to the United States."

Biden's efforts to persuade Germany and France to form a "united front" run counter to their interests. In particular, if there is a full-scale war, there will be an economic crisis and massive refugee flows. Germany is dependent on Russia for energy supplies (especially natural gas), at a time when sanctions will cause energy shortages and a sharp rise in EU consumer prices. This is one of the reasons the US has been pushing for the EU to diversify its energy supply – to make the EU less dependent on Russia for energy. Germany was forced to withdraw its support for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which is pending final certification by German regulators before being put into service.

Against this backdrop, the U.S. unexpectedly withdrew its support for the Eastern Mediterranean gas pipeline project, which would have transported energy directly from Israel and the Middle East to Europe. This appears to be an attempt to appease Turkey, as Erdogan has publicly supported Ukraine in the crisis and provided a conduit for the covert transfer of weapons to Kyiv. A factory to make Turkish drones has been built in Kyiv.

After weeks of warning Russia about an invasion of Ukraine, the White House doubled down on its bet, accusing Russia of a "false flag operation" that paved the way for the invasion. The Kremlin's military strategy includes waging "hybrid warfare"—a combination of electronic warfare, ready-to-cut mercenaries, political involvement and provocative actions. This is not a single case. This method has long been adopted by imperialist forces such as the United States, Britain and France. However, they implicitly use this method, making it difficult to analyze who did what when and where. The dangerous combination of Western warmongers and Russian cyberwarfare creates a situation that can quickly spiral out of control.

Russian imperialism

The Kremlin's policies have also become tougher over the past decade. When authorities now complain about NATO's expansion in Eastern Europe, they forget that they "cooperated" with NATO during Putin's first decade in power, even allowing them to use Russian airbases as a layover to Afghanistan. When Putin was first elected president, he even talked about the possibility of Russia joining NATO! By 2019, Russia was in direct competition with NATO. After consolidating its global position in Syria and Central Africa, Russia has increased its influence in Belarus and Kazakhstan. What worries U.S. imperialists most is the strengthening of Sino-Russian cooperation. At the Beijing Winter Olympics, Xi Jinping and Putin signed a new agreement under which Russia would increase energy supplies to China in exchange for jointly opposing those new "color revolutions."

Reflecting the mood in the Kremlin now when the decision is made, are photos of Putin's long table talks, first with Macron and then with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defense Minister at one end of the longer table. Photo of Minister Sergey Shoigu! Putin has been isolated since the outbreak of the new crown, and the advice he has received has become increasingly uneven. Lavrov oversaw discussions with Macron and others during the meeting. Lavrov commented that while there has been no progress on Russia's main demands, including NATO's retreat to the 1997 range, there are some interesting developments in other areas. Lavrov said there was still room for diplomacy, but if Putin wanted to, he should go ahead and recognize the independence and sovereignty of the republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.

On the initiative of the reactionary "Communist Party", the State Duma adopted a formal decision to recognize the two republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. While many representatives of the ruling party voted for the resolution, the Kremlin's position was to take note of the decision, claiming that Duma representatives were reflecting public opinion and handing over the decision on when to sign the proposal to Putin. The foreign ministry also expressed its opposition. The two republics, Donetsk and Luhansk, were immediately recognized.

Although the Putin regime is authoritarian, it still has to consider whether the Russian people will accept war against Ukraine. 2022 is not 2014, when Russia's annexation of Crimea into its own territory triggered a massive patriotic wave. Most Russians don't have the heart to go to war with Ukraine and are grappling with deteriorating living standards, rising inflation and more than a million "excess deaths" during the pandemic. Distrust of everything the government says is growing. There are reports of opposition to a full-scale invasion even within the military and special forces.

Putin may be happy that he has Beijing’s backing, but if a protracted war drains economic resources, he may well have to ask Xi Jinping to escort him.

The position of the socialists on the Ukrainian question

This situation confirms what we said 30 years ago when the Soviet Union disintegrated: that economic, national and democratic rights in this region will not be protected with the restoration of capitalism.

Socialists should not take sides among the imperialist powers. What we have to do is not to support the Russian side - the shelling carried out by the Ukrainian army first, or Kyiv (backed by the White House) - the forces in the disputed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk Responsible for the situation, and both republics are "false flag operations" carried out by the Russian side to rationalize the invasion. It is also possible that the attack was not sanctioned by the Kremlin, but was planned by the reactionary leaders of the two republics to push for Russian involvement.

But the important thing is that Ukraine has the right to be an independent country. The International Socialist Way (ISA) supports this right unconditionally. All imperialist troops, whether from Russia or NATO, should withdraw immediately from Ukraine and Eastern Europe. To ease tensions, Russian troops currently along the border should return to their barracks.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union and Ukraine's independence, the country's ruling elite and the oligarchs who supported them have drawn Ukraine into a conflict between global economic powers. The natural resources of states, banks and large corporations should be taken away from oligarchs and multinational corporations, publicized, and brought under the democratic control of workers.

At the same time, Ukraine must respect the rights of its national minorities and regions. It should be remembered that it was the government's attempts to limit the right to use the Russian language after the pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine, and the fear of the growth of the far right among some people, that created the discontent now exploited by the Russian side. Language rights should be respected. If a minority or region wants self-government, or even independence, they should have the right to achieve that. However, any decision must be taken in a democratic vote controlled by the local population without any military intervention.

We cannot trust either imperialist power. The West has repeatedly shown us in Iraq, Syria, Serbia, Libya and elsewhere that they do not defend democracy and sovereignty. They defend the interests of the bourgeoisie they represent. Russia is certainly not the guardian of the "Slavic" people they claim to be - the repression of the Russian people in their own country by the authorities itself proves this. The Russian state apparatus has acted in support of the interests of the Russian oligarchs, just as in the West. Their "peacekeepers" are in Ukraine not to "maintain the peace," but to defend the economic and political interests of Russia's ruling elite.

Socialists need to call out loud and launch a massive anti-war, anti-imperialist movement. Since many people who oppose imperialist attacks on countries like Iraq are now divided, this is probably not the easiest task. Some support Russia and China and oppose U.S. imperialism; some oppose Russian aggression and fully support Ukraine and its imperialist supporters.

But, as socialists, we cannot support this or that imperialist power as they quarrel over the fate of Ukraine. Ukraine cannot count on the ruling elite in the West or the Russian capital to guarantee its destiny as an independent state free from outside interference. Real independence for Ukraine can only be forged in a solidarity struggle of the working class against the warmongers in all countries.

The Ukrainian working class should play an important role here. If they organize actions to defend their homes and jobs from the war, if they mobilize all Ukrainian workers, regardless of nationality or language, in a united struggle to ensure that the struggle is not diverted to nationalist or pro-capitalist lines, Such a movement could become a powerful movement calling on workers in Russia, Europe, and the United States to unite. United in this way, the working class and youth can end the nightmare of war, guarantee the right to self-determination, and open the way for a new democratic socialist society.