Ethereum merged on September 19, and the Fed raised interest rates on September 22. Who should the market listen to in the conflict?

hot spot

The market is still in a tepid state today. In fact, before Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole annual meeting on Friday, the market is likely to be like this, and it is not impossible to even continue to test, because both institutions and retail investors Risk aversion will probably be the main focus. After all, last week, the big bosses of the Federal Reserve concentrated on a hawkish bombardment, which led to the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points in September from 40% last week to 47% the day before yesterday, and then last night. If Powell makes another explosive speech at this annual meeting, I think a new round of market plunge may really come, so the key is how Powell and the Fed view the current degree of weakness in the market and how to fight inflation How much of the determination, is it ahead or behind, and even what is the goal of price stability. It can be said that this annual meeting is likely to set the tone for the September rate hike. Now the major investment banks are basically not optimistic about the Fed turning dove. Although Goldman Sachs believes that September will be the last time to raise interest rates sharply, can the market support this time? It’s hard to say if you can live, so everyone must be prepared for the winter, and don’t think about speculation at this time.

According to data released by IHS Markit yesterday, the initial value of the euro zone's composite PMI in August was 49.2, higher than the expected 49, lower than the previous value of 49.9, and an 18-month low. This means that the composite PMI of the euro area has been below the line of prosperity and decline for two consecutive months, the economic prosperity has continued to decline, and the fear of recession has intensified. Therefore, compared with the United States, the European economy may not be able to withstand it first, and the future path of the European Central Bank to raise interest rates will be It has become very difficult. It is hard to say that in a few months, Europe will completely flatten and stop raising interest rates. This may have a certain impact on the United States.

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler said there is no reason to treat the crypto market differently from other capital markets just because it uses different technology, and that securities laws that protect investors continue to apply even as new technologies emerge. In fact, his meaning is very obvious. In the future, sec will definitely dominate the regulation of cryptocurrencies. At that time, many people with securities attributes will be unlucky. Now we will see when the hammer will come down.

After the five major exchanges in South Korea have obtained compliance licenses, South Korean securities giants may now enter the market to share the encryption cake. It is said that seven major South Korean securities companies plan to set up encrypted trading platforms in the first half of next year. Mirae Asset Securities and Samsung Securities is one of those seven companies. It has to be said that South Korea is very advanced in terms of encryption compliance and taxation. This has something to do with the fact that South Korean President Yin Xiyue is a bigwig in the currency circle. South Korea’s most regulatory example is still beneficial to the future of encryption.

With the continuous decline of the floor price of BAYC in the past few days, the NFT mortgage lending platform BendDAO has liquidated several BAYC, but NFT and encrypted assets are not the same, his quotation is discontinuous, commonly known as the depth is not enough, so there will be certain The most terrifying thing is that everyone loses confidence, which led to the withdrawal of 16,000 ETHs in the BendDAO pool. This incident shows the vulnerability of NFTs in the bear market. This is also the reason why I do not recommend ordinary people to speculate on expensive PFP projects, because your confidence is completely asymmetrical with the institution, the project party and even the core community. In the end, it is very likely that the insiders will sell at a high price and you will take it.

PFP has fallen badly recently, but the fat penguin Pudgy Penguins has risen against the trend. Not only has the floor price continued to rise, but it has also been auctioned for the highest price of 400 ETH. The reason behind this is most likely that some speculators use Nansen and Meta executives This positive event was deliberately raised, which is very similar to the time when doodles hired a big man in the fashion industry to become a brand, but now, apart from that time, the price of doodles has returned to the market, so this kind of positive effect cannot be effective for a long time. It is not recommended for everyone to chase high hype.

Polkadot Eco-Acala rolled back the data and destroyed more than one billion ausd, but now ausd is still only $0.77, which is seriously decoupled from $1, which shows that the current market is stable and distrustful of the problems that have occurred, and this kind of Relying on rollbacks to solve problems is also disgraceful.

Quotes

BTC: The slump in the U.S. stock market in the past two days has not further driven the decline of Bitcoin. It can be seen that the decline of Bitcoin last weekend was an early release of risks. Therefore, when the U.S. stock market fell last night, Bitcoin did not continue to follow up, but the market was still weak. So far, the 4-hour level has 3 weak supports near 20800, but this does not represent any signal. Instead, the feedback is that the market is too weak, at least there is no consensus on this position.

Therefore, it is very likely to continue to bottom out. The area around 21400 to 17800 below can be understood as a support area. Some people say that it is too broad, but it is not broad at all for the cryptocurrency market, because the volatility is too great.

ETH: Looking at two data, one is that the 7-day average gas price of Ethereum fell to 16.041 Gwei, the lowest level in two years​. Second, the TVL of Ethereum is currently only 35.2 billion US dollars, which is a drop of 4.6 billion compared with 39.8 billion US dollars on August 14. These two data show that the fundamentals of ETH have not recovered, and the market’s investment confidence is relatively weak. Therefore, in the short term, the probability of Ethereum going big before Friday is very low. It is not recommended to do any buying operations. In the medium term, Ethereum will merge and fork on September 19, and the Fed will raise interest rates on September 22. So it’s hard to say which market is more affected, so you must be prepared for long-term investment when you hold ETH now.

[Disclaimer] The above content does not constitute any investment advice. According to the relevant documents of the "Risk Warning on Preventing Illegal Fund Raising in the Name of [Virtual Currency] [Blockchain]" issued by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and other five departments in August 2018, please Look at the blockchain rationally, and don’t blindly trust others. The digital asset market is extremely volatile and risky, and you need to be highly cautious when entering the market.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, put an end to the full-cow stud, and refuse loan leverage.