Economics - possible black swans in the next six months to one year

MMT

• National Monetary Theory
• endogenous monetary theory
• financial instability hypothesis
• Keynesian
• functional finance theory
• Three Sector Equilibrium Theory

Many countries now pursue a Keynesian-based economic system (MMT-based), and use currency and debt printing to alleviate various problems, which is also a basis for the conclusion of the world financial crisis in 8-10 years.

And this is also one of the reasons for the emergence of BTC after 2008, that is, the Austrian school of economics that was the opposite of Keynes at that time pursued, and all of this will take time to test. At present, it can only show that there is a big problem with Western Keynesianism. .

Black Swan

Government debt/GDP ratio, there will be the risk of bubbles being squeezed.

As for Japan, Italy, Europe and other countries, and the trillion-dollar market value of the currency circle, a collapse or default in any of these places will be a blockbuster in the world financial market, a world financial crisis or a local financial crisis. Why is it called a local financial crisis? Because the world has a two-dollar or multi-currency system, Russia is back on the gold standard, and some countries may go to the silver standard in the future, or some will adopt the BTC standard. These are all possibilities.

Prioritize financial risks:

• Western countries that are very close to the US dollar have high debt-to-GDP ratios, and it is difficult for the domestic economy to develop further. Japan and Italy have been shorted by Bridgewater (Ray Dalio) not long ago in debt or financial markets. Both of the above countries exist some of the issues mentioned earlier.
• Furthermore, some countries in Europe are experiencing increased war inflation due to the uncertainty of the future brought about by the Russian-Ukrainian war, and some countries may also experience stronger or weaker financial crises.
• For Russia, the risk is lower than the previous one. Unless a one-sided Russia is defeated in the war, it will be more difficult to have a big risk, because it has completely got rid of the influence of the US dollar and is a resource-rich country.
• China, why is China behind? It is mainly because China does not have a border with the war at present. In addition, it has a delicate relationship with Russia and the United States, and has a relationship with the US dollar, but it is not strongly related (there may be foreign exchange controls here), and China's interest rates are also There is room for the renminbi to be used as a settlement currency to a certain extent. As mentioned in the previous article, the next round will lead to an era of high inflation, which is also the end of Keynesianism.

The above is just my personal opinion, welcome to communicate: Twitter personal homepage