Judging whether FTT/BNB has an excessive market value by horizontal comparison with the benefit model

Judging whether FTT/BNB has an excessive market value by horizontal comparison with the benefit model

1. Foreword: By chance, the author took some profits at the beginning of the year and invested the funds in the cryptocurrency market. This year, the cryptocurrency market is hot and continues to hit new highs. I also have a deep understanding of a lot of block training technologies and feel the current atmosphere. Perhaps there is a similar situation to the Dakang bubble. For example, the blockchain and the Internet are regarded as the future of the new era, and the situation is very similar to the rise of chickens and dogs regardless of whether they are good or bad. Even if the bubble may have to be judged after the craze subsides, it is unknown who in the cryptocurrency world can become the winner of the oligarchic world pattern like the stock song, Microsoft, and Apple, but the author intends to use my limited knowledge to judge perhaps a certain Some cryptocurrencies are overvalued and undervalued. This article does not constitute a recommendation or an invitation to purchase any subject matter. Investment and financial management may make or lose money. Please read the prospectus/white paper carefully before investing.
2. Research purposes:
3. Valuation of BNB/FTT through simple P/E model conversion
4. Analogy between traditional finance and blockchain finance through conceptual connections
5. Research methods and credibility
6. A brief overview of the token issuance mechanism and value capture of FTT/BNB
7. Find listed companies with similar profit categories in traditional industries through the value capture mechanism of FTT/BNB
8. data reference
9. coinmarketcap: The largest database in the cryptocurrency circle, which collects a large number of transaction data, project white paper market value and other diversified data. Although it was acquired by Binance, there may be insufficient neutrality for Binance and its related data, but there is currently no data. Issues such as fraud are still worthy of trust.
10. coingecko: The most widely used cryptocurrency database other than the above-mentioned CMC, currently operates as an independent company, and the company members have a non-anonymous team whose appearance and names are disclosed.
11. ycharts : quite the top US stock investment data website, which is very authoritative. Since its establishment in 2009, it has served a large number of people and users
12. A brief description of the issuance of FTT/BNB tokens
13. Introduction to BNB

Launched in July 2017, FORK COSMOS SDK is natively issued on the BEP2 chain. 200 million, the official will take out 20% of the profit to buy back BNB every quarter, until the total market is only 100 million.

1. Introduction to FTT

The total number of tokens launched by the FTX exchange is 350 million, 175 million are sold by ICO, and the rest are reserved and held by the team. FTT's token empowerment can provide users with fee credits, ERC20 fee-free withdrawal activities or matching IEO activities. According to the white paper, 33% of the FTX exchange surplus, 10% of the net margin income, 5% The transaction fees other than the exchange service will be used for weekly token repurchase and destruction, and the weekly destruction record will be on the chain and the transaction TX will be published on the official website.

1. Analogy to a stockbroker
2. Why use securities brokers as a comparison? The main reason is that there are too many new forms of economic systems in the world, and it is difficult to use traditional methods for valuation, and exchange brokers happen to be highly overlapping with traditional financial businesses, so It is suitable as an analogy. It is worth mentioning that the exchange business is relatively highly correlated with the bull and bear markets, so it is possible that the bull market is sometimes overvalued, and the bear market is sometimes undervalued, so readers need to pay attention
3. charles schwab Charles Schwab

Founded in San Francisco, California in 1971, and acquired TD ameritrade securities in 2019, the total assets under management reached 6 trillion US dollars, and it is mainly engaged in securities brokerage and banking business. Income comes from financial management and other businesses

1. interactive broker

Founded in Greenwich, Connecticut in 1977, it not only serves customers in North America, but also a large number of customers in the global market, and can invest in different stock markets such as the British stock market and the Irish market. is the largest non-bank securities broker in the United States.

1. Behavior and Noun Analogy:
2. Because there are some differences in terms between the securities company and the token token model, but the effects of some actions are very similar, it is necessary to make an analogy between actions and nouns first.
3. Stock VS Token: There is a type of stock called special stock. Usually special stock has better distribution rights than ordinary stock shareholders, but in cryptocurrencies, unless it is a DAO governance token, otherwise the token holds Someone usually has no way of interfering with the decisions of the operations team, so I think BNB/FTT is relatively similar to special stocks.
4. Treasury stock VS token repurchase: Among the empowerment of FTT and BNB, token repurchase may be the most important among them. Repurchasing tokens originally circulating in the market through cash repurchase can achieve the effect of deflation, and The treasury stock system also has this effect. Through the acquisition of stocks in the market, the rights and interests of all shareholders are improved.
5. Stock Dividend VS Token Inflation: Generally speaking, stock dividend is due to the good operating performance of the company, but because of the need for cash to expand the business, the surplus is used to increase capital and increase the number of shares held by each shareholder. Token Tong Peng also has a similar concept , It is worth noting that in the token economy, certain actions are often required to enjoy token inflation, such as staking or liquidity mining. This point must be paid attention to the similarities and differences.
6. data analysis
7. In the following data analysis, the token repurchase of BNB/FTT will be used as the surplus of the current year, which will be used to calculate the comparison with the market value and then calculate the price-earnings ratio. At the same time, another form will be added. If token repurchase is not performed Deflation is based on cash airdrops to token holders based on the surplus, and then the cash yield is calculated. The data here are based on the data from the first to third quarters of 2021, while BNB's third-quarter repurchase falls in ten Therefore, the current repurchase will be used as the third quarter surplus, that is, the 15th to 17th repurchases. In addition, the price-earnings ratio is usually calculated using the annual figure, so the first three quarters figures/0.75 will be pushed back and forth to assume , do not otherwise forecast growth or decline.
8. First, put the price-earnings ratio of Charles Schwab and Interactive Brokers on YCHART, and then it will be based on the data of the day on 9/30.
9. The following is the information of FTT/BNB https://reurl.cc/DZD9pN I put the spreadsheet here for easy viewing, but I am too lazy for not typesetting
10. According to the above chart, we can see that the PE of Schwab and IB 9/30 are 27.7 and 18.34 respectively. On the other side, BNB and FTT are 29.43 and 27.77 respectively. Although they are both higher than Charles Schwab, they are also limited. It is worth noting that this is the data of 9/30, and the figures of these two in November of the author. There will be adjustments, and readers are advised to bring in the numbers to calculate.
11. Conclusion and thoughts

Although the token valuation of cryptocurrency exchanges is higher than that of general securities brokers, it seems that there are not so many components of irrigation. Considering that the industry is still developing rapidly, and the revenue of Binance and FTX exchanges is comparable There will be substantial growth in 2020. It is possible to give a high valuation under the overall optimistic market situation, but it is still necessary to consider the possibility that the Federal Reserve will reduce currency release or even raise interest rates next year. Business is the industry most likely to be affected, and investors really have to think carefully if they want to invest.