Black Sea food corridor stalled, but Russia is brewing two 'alternative solutions'

On June 8, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Turkey and discussed issues related to Ukrainian grain exports with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu.

Previously, the United Nations had proposed that a grain corridor could be opened in the Black Sea, allowing Ukraine to export grains through this, which would not only ease the pressure on global food demand, but also prevent Ukrainian farmers from losing their money. Cavusoglu believes that this proposal is reasonable and feasible, but he also said that Moscow and Kyiv must negotiate this in order to break through the current predicament.

After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out on February 24, in order to counter Western sanctions, Russia blocked hundreds of ships carrying grain exported from Ukraine in the Black Sea and the waters of Azov. In terms of pre-war economic data, Ukraine is the fifth largest grain-producing country in the world. 10% of its gross domestic product (GDP) comes from the agriculture and food sectors, and more than 90% of its wheat and corn exports are transported through Black Sea ports. , Russia's move has indeed strangled Ukraine's economic lifeline, and it has also impacted global food security.

Although after the surrender of the Azov Steel Plant fighters on May 16, Russia began to clear the territory of the Mariupol port, inspecting more than 1.5 million square meters of water, and at the same time clearing the coastline of the Azov Sea. On May 25, a sea corridor to the Black Sea was opened, allowing foreign ships to leave the port of Mariupol, but the ports of Kherson, Nikolayev, Chernomorsk, Ochakov, Ao The waters of Port Desa, Port of Pifdene and other places are still blocked, and Mariupol Port alone is difficult to support.

In addition, although the EU and Uzbekistan tried to transport food by land, the results were not very satisfactory. First, Ukraine is not a member of the European Union, and cross-border food shipments inevitably face cumbersome bureaucratic and paperwork. Therefore, it is necessary to transfer the goods to the truck halfway, which is also a time cost. Thirdly, most of the grains transported to the EU by land are corn, not wheat. The reason behind this is related to the needs of the EU itself. France itself is the As a major wheat exporter, the countries in the western plains of Eastern Europe also have a very high wheat self-sufficiency rate. There is no market space for large-scale purchases of Ukrainian wheat, and the ports of Poland and Romania do not have the ability to export a large amount of grain, so they have to use the EU to transfer Ukraine. Wheat, after all, is not urgent.

It is precisely because of the various plans that have been turned back and forth that are not as practical as opening the Black Sea waters, and this will lead to the Turkey-Russia talks on June 8. However, this plan has drawn more complicated factors.

what is ukraine worried about

First of all, although Russia expressed its willingness to open the Black Sea waters conditionally, it was unable to win the trust of other countries outside the region, which triggered discussions on "warship protection".

As early as May 24, the British "The Times" reported that the British government said it would continue to cooperate with other countries to restore Ukraine's grain exports, and the Royal Navy "may" send escort ships; Lithuanian Foreign Minister Lanzbergi Gabrielius Landsbergis also said the country was seeking to create a "voluntary" naval alliance, while Latvia said it needed a NATO brigade, a military contingent of about 5,000 soldiers, to strengthen NATO's eastern flank to prevent Russia "possible attack".

However, such a concept of "warships to protect food", because all countries are concerned about the risk of angering the Russian army, it has been a war of words from beginning to end. Taking the Netherlands as an example, in response to the request of Latvia and other countries, it expressed its willingness to participate in the escort, "but the current conditions are not mature"; the British Royal Navy, which is known as "may send escort ships", is even more silent; the President of Estonia Although Alar Karis said at the Davos forum, "Estonia is ready for escort operations, and the United Kingdom and other countries may join." "It doesn't have to be a NATO action, but we can say it's a NATO country action."

In response, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba quipped that NATO did not want to help ensure the safe passage of grain through the Black Sea. "I welcome this decision wholeheartedly, but I don't see the stamina and courage to take all the risks associated with this operation."

In addition, compared with the "warship protection food" contest, another obstacle to the black sea food supply is more specific, but it is not easy to eliminate, that is, the mines laid by Ukraine.

After the war began, not only did Russia block the waters of the Azov Sea and the Black Sea, but Ukraine also laid many mines in the surrounding waters in order to prevent the Russian army from attacking Odessa from the sea. Shipping is safe. In this regard, Lavrov said that if Ukraine clears the port mines, the ship will be able to enter the port and load food after being inspected by the Russian army and ensure that it does not carry weapons. In the process, Russia will cooperate with Turkey and promise not to launch any attacks.

But such assurances clearly failed to convince Ukraine. In particular, a committee of the Russian Ministry of Defense revealed on June 1 the objectives of the third phase of special military operations, including the control of Mykolaiv (Mykolaiv, Odessa and Kharkiv), Ukraine will naturally worry , With the opening of the sea grain transportation channel, the Russian army will take advantage of this long-term drive. By then, the grain has not been shipped out, and Odessa will be deeply involved in war. Therefore, it said that the navies of third countries including Turkey are welcome to provide assistance, but in order to ensure the safe passage of ships, Ukraine would rather obtain anti-ship missiles from the West.

In the final analysis, the war has led to the current food crisis and has also brought the mine dilemma in the Black Sea to a deadlock. As the war situation intensifies, Russia has occupied 20% of Ukraine's territory. As long as the Russian army continues to advance, Ukraine's resistance to mine clearance in the Black Sea will inevitably increase day by day, which may lead to two alternative outcomes.

Calculations between Russia and Turkey

First, with the increasing pressure on global food demand, if the black sea grain continues to be unresolved, Russia's bargaining chip for the lifting of sanctions will also be relatively stronger, especially the shipping and payment sanctions that affect Russia's grain exports.

Since food security has become an issue, Russia has continued to say that if the West lifts economic sanctions against Russia, in exchange, Russia will relax the blockade of Ukrainian ports. For example, Putin has pointed out that if the EU lifts the series of sanctions imposed on Russia three months ago, it will allow grain ships to leave the port of Odessa; EU officials have also revealed that Russia hopes that the EU will lift the ban on Russian ships entering EU ports. Although the U.S. side has called Russia's request "extortion diplomacy" and said it would not agree to any of the Kremlin's demands for economic sanctions, the situation may force it to make a choice.

On June 8, Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Russian Kremlin, said that the actions of the Russian military in Ukraine did not cause an international food crisis, but a series of wrong events and actions by some governments. The key to the crisis is that in order for Russia's food to be supplied to the international market, the West must lift the direct and indirect sanctions imposed on Russia and relax the ban on shipping insurance, payment and access to European ports. It also pointed out that the importance of Ukraine's grain reserves to the international market should not be overstated, and the actual amount of grain stranded in Ukrainian ports is much less than what Ukraine claims.

Peskov's statement was of course intended for Russia's national interests, so he downplayed Ukraine's role in the global food supply chain. However, if the stalemate in the Black Sea continues, the West may be forced to relax sanctions against Russia under the consideration of filling the food gap, in order to win the Russian blood transfusion into the global food market. Although this result can buffer the risk of a food crisis, it represents another setback in the West's containment of Russia. Not only did the aforementioned pressure fall short, but it also lost its prestige as a major power in the "concession to Russia" measure.

Second, if the Ukrainian side continues to resist mine removal in the Black Sea, it may make the mechanism of "Turkey-Russian joint sales of food" more mesa.

Since the second phase of the special military operation, Ukraine and the West have continued to accuse Russia of "looting and stealing" Ukrainian grain. Although such accusations are based on public opinion warfare, they are also based on a certain degree of real development. On June 8, Yevgeny Balitsky, head of the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia interim military-civilian administration, said that the Zaporizhzhia region is supplying food to the Middle East, including food sources from Hull. Grain acquired by Kherson and Zaporozhye, "We are transporting grain through Russia, with a major contract signed with Turkey, the first trains have already departed via Crimea to the Middle East, a traditional market in Ukraine. "

Coincidentally, Yörük Işık, a Turkish-born geopolitical analyst, also said in an interview with France 24 news network (France 24) that when he observed and tracked the movements of ships in the Bosphorus Strait, he found that several After loading wheat at ports blocked by Russia, such as Odessa, Chernomorsk, and Mariupol in Ukraine, the cargo ships sailed to Syria, and then to Lebanon and Egypt. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has faced enormous food pressure. Essek added that he also observed a group of old Turkish ships "never seen in the area" in the Russian port of Novorossiysk, flying flags of other countries, and Essek inferred that these ships "may be related to Russia." The government signed the contract."

Looking back at the reality, although Turkey invoked the 1936 Montreux Convention since February 27, it actually restricted Russian and other countries' warships from entering the Black Sea through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, but did not intercept merchant ships. or search. On June 3, Ukraine's ambassador to Turkey, Vasyl Bodnar, also said that Turkish buyers were among the recipients of Russia's "stealing food from Ukraine." Therefore, what Esak said, although not necessarily true, may reflect a certain reality.

To sum up, both Russian information and third-party observations reveal the harsh reality of international politics: in pursuit of its own food security and national interests, Ukraine's appeal has never been the primary consideration of all parties.

For countries in Africa that "need food urgently", Russia and Ukraine support about 40% of their wheat demand. Under the pressure of famine, if Ukraine's supply drops sharply, it will not hesitate to switch to purchasing Russian grain. Will take positive action. The existence of food is more important than the source of food, and it is the experience of blood and tears in the place of famine. Doing so may face moral preaching from the outside world, but at least it is better than starving all over the place.

For Turkey, its fundamental motive is to expand its regional voice and to transcend the status restrictions of a medium-sized country. From a geographical point of view, Turkey has half the key to enter the Black Sea, and it can take the opportunity of coordinating grain shipments with Ukraine to increase its international exposure and prestige. If the coordination is successful, Turkey will be able to publicize this "diplomatic achievement" and alleviate its own shipping losses caused by the Black Sea dilemma; if it fails, Turkey can still make a lot of money by "helping Russia to transport grain".

Finally, for Russia, the opening of the black sea grain is only a moral bonus, not an urgent need; if it wants to play a greater political value, it is to use it as a bargaining chip, which is to force the West to unravel Some of the shackles of sanctions against Russia may allow Ukraine to clear the mines in the port to prepare for a possible future military offensive.

After all, Russia has proved through practice that it can transport grain from Ukraine by sea and land, and by cooperating with local farmers and third-party countries, it has "solved" the food crisis in some areas, and at the same time when international food prices are soaring in the case of a large profit. Therefore, for Russia, the so-called "food crisis" in the West is not so much a real crisis as a "mediocre self-inflicted disturbance" that adheres to political correctness. If Ukrainian grains are not shipped out of the country, all parties will eventually seek assistance from Russia, whether it is By bypassing economic sanctions, repurchasing Russian grain, or purchasing Ukrainian grain shipped from Russia, Moscow can also take the opportunity to reap diplomatic benefits at that time, killing two birds with one stone.

In the final analysis, although Ukraine is rich in grain output, facing the current embarrassing situation, it has no negotiating cost.

In the end, the siege of public opinion and moral sermons are difficult to overcome the high wall of reality. Just as the West boasted to ban Russian oil and gas, but repeatedly hesitated and dared not make drastic measures, the black sea grain issue, because neither Turkey nor Russia is the most urgent party, Therefore, it can take the time to set conditions, manage its own national interests, and even plan future plans; while the West condemns Russia for creating a food crisis, it refuses to send troops to the Black Sea to escort it, and it refuses to let go of the shackles of sanctions against Russia. Helpless to ease the situation; although Ukraine called on the world to put pressure on Russia to end the Russian-Ukrainian war, saying that "this is the fundamental solution to the food crisis", but because of the "assistance" that the West can't get, and the hegemony of the Russian base as the king , and will eventually become a realistic sacrifice of international politics.

Original published URL:

2022.6.11

The Black Sea Grain Corridor is deadlocked, but Russia is brewing two "alternative solutions" | Hong Kong 01 https://www.hk01.com/sns/article/780247