August is a policy vacuum period, but it is also an important node to decide whether to return to the bull market in 2022!

hot spot

After a sweet July, we are finally entering August. Friends who are concerned about macro policies know that August is in a policy vacuum as a whole, because August and October are the only two in the second half of the year without interest rate hike plans. Since there is no interest rate increase in the month of 2019, the non-agricultural data on the 5th of this month and the CPI data released on the 10th of this month are very important. These two data correspond to the recession risk and the inflation crisis. The unemployment rate is the same as the previous value, and the CPI is expected to decline, which means that economists are optimistic about the market behind. If there is a turning point in reducing the policy in 2022, then the probability will happen in August. Now, if it doesn't happen, it will have to wait until 2023, so this month is a policy vacuum period, and it is also a month with high expectations from the market. The current market is very sensitive. Once there is any trouble, it will be reflected in the price, so We have to keep an eye on the economic data.

Let’s talk about some inflation-related data. Since the Russian-Ukrainian crisis in the global grain surge, inflation has also increased. However, since Ukraine, Turkey, and Russia signed the grain export agreement, the grain has started a slump mode. At present, wheat and corn Both fell to their lowest point this year, and JPMorgan Chase also assessed the matter, arguing that slowing food inflation could reduce global inflation by 1.5 percentage points and emerging market inflation by 2 percentage points. In addition to food, crude oil prices also fell sharply, mainly due to weak US manufacturing and seasonality in the United States, and Morgan Stanley lowered its target price for crude oil​. These two aspects are a big positive for the Fed to solve the inflation crisis, so it is very interesting that inflation peaks in August.

Let’s talk about encryption. After last week’s ark capital’s Mutouji cut meat coinbase stock, the day before yesterday, Mutouji began to sell a lot of GBTC. According to the data, since July 1, ARK fund has sold a net 101,182 shares of GBTC. Although Sister Mutou has been involved in encryption this time, her recent speech is still a supporter of encryption, and this time cutting meat is not necessarily a bad thing. You must know that every round of bull-bear cycle conversion is accompanied by the surrender of this large amount of capital , so this time Musk and Sister Mu Tou may reduce their positions and accelerate the arrival of the next round of bull market.

Tether CTO Paolo Ardoino said on social platforms whether USDT will support the POW Ethereum fork chain after the merger of Ethereum, and said that we plan to support ETH2, and the support for the merged Ethereum 2.0 will be seamless. This has nothing to do with our preference for POW or POS, Stablecoin should act responsibly and avoid disruption to users. It can be seen from tether's attitude that the consensus is still on ETH2, which also confirms my speculation last week that the fork of Erbao is difficult to get the support of the existing ecology. In the event of failure, all we have to do is to sell the forked coin immediately after receiving it, so as not to be cut off.

Although altcoins have been rising hot recently, the NFT market is showing signs of cooling down. According to Dune Analytics data, OpenSea’s July trading volume was $528 million, compared to the all-time high of $4.857 billion in January 2022. It fell 89.12%, hitting a one-year low. Yesterday, a16z partner Chris Dixon joined OpenSea's board of directors to replace Katie Haun, and it seems that capital is about to come in to save the market.

A new use case for USDC is here. According to Cointelegraph, in a player transfer, Brazil’s Sao Paulo paid more than $6 million in USDC to Argentina’s Banfield Athletic as a transfer fee, and the Mexican crypto trading platform Bitso provided technical support for the transaction. This is the first time the club has accepted cryptocurrency as a payment method for international transfers.​I believe that there will be more and more application scenarios for USDC in the future.​

Quotes

BTC: The rebound at the weekly level continues. The real resistance above is around 28000. It has been a small positive line for 3 consecutive weeks. At the same time, with the heavy volume at the bottom, the rebound will continue this week. After reaching around 28000, the market will have a downward trend. A retracement of the magnitude, and then further verification or further consolidation of the support at the bottom. The current trend of the daily level is also relatively healthy. From the daily point of view, there has not been a decent pulling action, and it has been in the stage of constant challenges and continuous verification of relative bottom support.

At the 4-hour level, at 20:00 on July 30, the market broke the new high on July 20 and then adjusted downwards. It can be seen that the main force here is a false breakout trend, and then use the false breakout to make a retracement in the opposite direction to complete Short term basic harvest. However, all these manipulations have little impact on the market outlook, and the 4-hour level is still relatively healthy. After the adjustment is over, there is a high probability that it will follow the weekly pace to continue to verify the real resistance level.​

ETH: eth started a pullback trend today. I said a few days ago that the short-term rise of ETH is not stable. The reason is that the usage rate and pledge rate of ETH have not returned. The current upward momentum is entirely dependent on the merger forecast in September. And the fork is good. Under the influence of a single event, the short-term price volatility will be very large. When the TVL on the Ethereum chain shows signs of continuous rise and the gas cost increases, it means that the fundamentals of ETH have returned. That's when ETH really explodes, so when you buy ETH spot now, you must have the determination to hold it in the medium and long term.

[Disclaimer] The above content does not constitute any investment advice. According to the relevant documents of the "Risk Warning on Preventing Illegal Fund Raising in the Name of [Virtual Currency] [Blockchain]" issued by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and other five departments in August 2018, please Look at the blockchain rationally, and don’t blindly trust others. The digital asset market is extremely volatile and risky, and you need to be highly cautious when entering the market.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, put an end to the full-cow stud, and refuse loan leverage.