The "Taiwan Strait Adventure" under the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: America's Great Delight and Self-Destruction Anxiety

On May 5, the U.S. State Department website updated and revised the "Fact Sheet of U.S.-Taiwan Relations", deleted expressions such as "recognize that Taiwan is part of China" and "the United States does not support Taiwan independence" in the original version, and added "Based on Taiwan." Relations Act, the three Sino-US communiques and the long-term "one China" policy of the six guarantees". This change did not arouse outside attention, after all, the US did not issue an official press release. However, after the Taiwan media reported the incident on May 10, public opinion gradually fermented, and China and the United States also began to respond diplomatically.

First of all, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said that the US has made solemn commitments on the Taiwan issue and the one-China principle in the three Sino-US joint communiqués. The revision of the "fact list of US-Taiwan relations" is to hollow out the one-China principle. "This kind of political manipulation on the Taiwan issue, trying to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, will definitely set fire to the flames." Zhao Lijian called on the US side to abide by the one-China principle and the provisions of the three Sino-US joint communiques, and strictly abide by the The political commitment made to China on the Taiwan issue is to "implement President Joe Biden's statement that the United States does not support Taiwan independence, and stop using Taiwan-related issues to engage in political manipulation and use Taiwan to control China."

Since then, the United States has repeatedly clarified. On May 10, Associated Press (AP) senior reporter Matthew Lee asked State Department Spokesperson Ned Price what the U.S. revisions meant. Has the US policy towards Taiwan changed? Price responded that the U.S. policy toward Taiwan has not changed, but this time it was just "updated with a list of facts" that proves that U.S.-Taiwan relations are "rock-solid" unofficial relations.

However, Matthew Lee continued to ask, if the US policy towards Taiwan has not changed, why does it need to revise the statement in the "fact list"? If the Taiwan-related discussion will attract great attention from the Chinese side, "Why do you update it now, why do you have to update it?" In response, Price responded that the United States would not care too much about whether other countries comment on the list and "use the topic".

On May 11, Kurt Campbell, US Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs, also reiterated in an interview with Evan Medeiros, Special Adviser to the US Institute of Peace, that the US policy towards Taiwan has not changed, and the US does not support Taiwan independence. , the "one China policy" is still in play. Such a statement is also a clarification of the revision of the "fact list".

Between the back and forth, this storm has gradually come to an end, but the wrestling between China, the United States and Taiwan Strait it has induced is quite intriguing.

U.S. policy toward Taiwan is in chaos

First of all, the revision of the "fact list" and clarifications revealed that the United States not only lacks long-term planning for dealing with the Taiwan issue, but also lacks an internal united front.

Judging from the fact that after the U.S. revised its website, there was no follow-up report by the international media, but it was first exposed by the Taiwanese media. Whether Washington’s move is mainly to provoke Beijing or to help the DPP consolidate the “U.S.-Taiwan friendship” internal propaganda, Its original intention is to operate the "Taiwan brand", otherwise there is no need to communicate with the Taiwanese media, and make a big fuss about the revision of the "fact list" that few people pay attention to.

However, judging from the frequent clarifications after the fact, and the fact that even the Associated Press reporter did not understand the questioning, this move was not a meticulously planned strategic plan, but a political adventure that only served short-term goals and was full of speculation: if "If " After the fact list was revised and reported by Taiwan media, Beijing ignored it, and the Taiwan government could strengthen the political propaganda of "US-Taiwan friendship", and at the same time exaggerate the social atmosphere of "Taiwan independence is endorsed by the US" and "a hundred-foot progress". It must be more "beautiful and obedient"; if Beijing responds, then the United States will still say that "the policy towards Taiwan has not changed" and "does not support Taiwan independence", which is enough to spend a lot of money on diplomacy, as if everything is Beijing's excesses. reaction.

In all fairness, however, the strategic gains for the United States, no matter how Beijing reacts, will be limited by the development of these scenarios. If Beijing ignores its actions, the U.S. will at best gain further loyalty from the Taiwan authorities and attack China's international prestige; but from a practical perspective, it is impossible for Beijing to remain unresponsive, especially after the Taiwan media reports ferment, it will inevitably Taking action, the United States is destined to retreat only after political adventures, invisibly undermining the prestige of a major power, not to mention that Taiwan is now an island where the United States is highly involved and infiltrated, and its loyalty to the United States has been raised from 85 to 85. What is the significance of 88 points?

However, such a strange operation is not an isolated case. As early as April 7, Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, reported that she would lead a delegation to visit Taiwan on April 10, but after Beijing said it would "resolutely fight back", she staged a "new crown confirmed" coincidence. , the visit to Taiwan naturally ended without a hitch. In the end, Pelosi chose to visit Kyiv, Ukraine on May 1, avoiding the disgrace in the Indo-Pacific region, and the United States transferred six members of the House of Representatives to visit Taiwan. Whether the diagnosis is true or not, it is an indisputable fact that America's political adventure has been frustrated by Beijing's counterattack.

From Pelosi's attempted visit to Taiwan, to the clarification after revising the statement on the "Fact List" website, the United States has repeatedly made political surprises that "will inevitably lead to Beijing's response". Later, some officials were optimistic about the judgment. According to a report by Bloomberg News on May 10, several Biden team officials told Bloomberg that the damage caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the large-scale sanctions on Moscow will leave Russia severely lame in the next few years, and Let Europe increase defense spending, the situation will be conducive to the United States to focus on dealing with China.

Such an optimistic atmosphere may have been spreading in Washington for a long time, which led to some officials eager to try on the Taiwan issue, but because they failed to coordinate with other departments to reach a unified consensus, the result turned into a political adventure in the diplomatic system, resulting in a series of incidents. Meaningless speculation, and after the situation expanded, other departments were implicated to help clean up the aftermath.

After Pelosi's visit to Taiwan was controversial on April 7 and the delegation of congressional representatives was reassigned to Taiwan on April 14, the PLA's Eastern Theater Command launched a military exercise on April 15, and Chinese State Councilor and Defense Minister Wei Fenghe held a military exercise on April 15. On the 20th, he had a phone call with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. The two focused on the Taiwan Strait issue. Wei Fenghe reiterated that "if the Taiwan issue is not handled properly, it will have a subversive impact on the relationship between China and the United States." After the controversy over the revision of the "fact list" on May 10 fermented, it was Campbell, who had military experience and was in charge of Indo-Pacific affairs, to make a final decision: "The US policy towards Taiwan remains unchanged, and the US does not support Taiwan independence."

The Taiwan Strait issue is entering a new era

In short, the United States may have grand strategies such as "returning to Asia" and "containment of China", but on the Taiwan issue, it seems that it is now difficult to find a collective direction. Officials only know that the United States cannot lose points here, but there is no long-term A consensus on the layout; I only know that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine seems to have made the Indo-Pacific region "great", but with great success, several ugly diplomatic farces have been staged in succession.

In all fairness, looking into the root causes of the chaotic behavior of the United States, the Russian-Ukrainian war has only played a leading role, and the split in Washington's perception of the changing situation in the Taiwan Strait is the real key to everything. In the eyes of some short-sighted politicians, the Taiwan issue has always stopped in the old situation 20 years ago: the United States enjoys the political space to play the "Taiwan card", while China will stabilize Sino-US relations, solve development problems, and place hope on the Taiwanese people, etc. Under consideration, vaguely deal with the push for "substantial Taiwan independence"; at the same time, some U.S. officials believe that China's military and economic strength has grown by leaps and bounds in the past 20 years. We should worry that excessive playing with fire on the Taiwan issue will lead to the collapse of Sino-US relations.

The above two tendencies constitute today's Taiwan Strait dilemma for the Biden administration. The United States cannot stop its desire to manipulate the Taiwan card. After all, it is closely embedded in the grand strategy of containing China. However, in view of the substantial growth of China's national strength, and the Trump (Donald Trump) period has severely damaged the mutual trust between China and the United States, the current atmosphere of interaction between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait It is also not as good as during the Ma Ying-jeou administration, which caused some officials to worry that the Taiwan card is facing a mutually exclusive situation of "utility" and "value preservation": under the current tense situation, in order to make the Taiwan card more effective, it is necessary to step out more. A big step, but doing so may lead to the self-destruction of the Taiwan brand.

From this perspective, Pelosi's intention to visit Taiwan and revise the "fact list" statement, although both are diplomatic farces, can be described as two different types of adventure. The former is that the space for "cutting sausages" has been significantly reduced, but it is still whimsical, and it intends to cut thicker sausage slices than before; the latter is worried about cutting the fingers, and controls the force of the knife independently, not only to show himself Intentionally cutting sausages, but also careful and careful about the thickness of the sausage slices, but before the action was over, he pulled out the knife out of fear and left.

In the final analysis, the situation in the Taiwan Strait is entering a new era. Under the situation that the United States has significantly dominated Taiwan's political arena and China's national power has risen sharply, the key to solving the Taiwan issue is not both sides of the Taiwan Strait, but the two ends of the Pacific Ocean. Although the United States has repeatedly reiterated that it "does not support Taiwan independence" and that its "Taiwan policy has not changed," its continuous sausage cutting over the past 20 years has greatly damaged the credibility of the United States' strategic commitment. From a practical point of view, whether the U.S. states that it "does not support Taiwan independence" and whether Taiwan adheres to the "1992 Consensus" has almost the same practical significance: Beijing will neither give up promoting reunification because of these guarantees, nor can the U.S. and give up support for "substantial Taiwan independence". Therefore, what ultimately determines the trend of the situation is not diplomatic discourse, but the strength layout of the two powers.

In the foreseeable future, if the US's Taiwan Strait adventure does not stop, and Beijing may have a greater tendency to "take the initiative", the stormy waves in the Taiwan Strait may be inevitable.

Original URL: "Taiwan Strait Adventure" under the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: America's Great Delight and Self-Destruction Anxiety

2022.5.15

Hong Kong 01 https://www.hk01.com/sns/article/770114