The countdown to the mid-term elections has begun. Will Biden choose to forcibly pull US stocks for the "throne"?

hot spot

The Fed's big dovish Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said at a gathering yesterday that by many measures the U.S. is currently at peak employment and inflation is very high, which could lead to an imbalance in inflation expectations that requires the Fed Tighten monetary policy to balance it out. It can be seen from his words that the previous CPI data in July cannot be used as strong evidence that inflation has peaked. Even this dovish representative does not think so. This can also explain why the interest rate hike by 75 basis points in September these days. The reason for the increasing probability​.

Then there is another important thing. It is only 80 days before the end of the US mid-term election primary election on November 8. Since the US economy has been bad since Biden took office, inflation has remained high, and the three major markets of stocks, bonds, and currencies have been volatile. The performance is all bad, so Biden's approval rating is already very low, plus Trump's Democrats are now full of horsepower, and their grassroots fundraising in core swing states is much higher than Biden's Republicans, given the "Chip and Science Act" And the "Inflation Reduction Act" has been implemented, and there are not many ways to save Biden's approval rate in the future. With the slump in the president's approval rate, the House of Representatives, currently helmed by the ruling party, may fall to the Democratic Party. This result should be impossible for Biden. Accepted, this means that Biden can only run the Senate and not the House of Representatives in the future. Historically, in this state of division, the ruling party will lose the power of major legislation. Therefore, if Biden wants to move back to the current decline, he may take The extreme method of pulling the financial market, just like what bitmex founder Xiao Hei said today, shouting to fight against inflation to win the votes of ordinary people, and secretly pouring water to win the support of the rich, so the market may be before the mid-term elections. There will be a wave of good market conditions. Of course, this time node may be after the interest rate hike in September, and Biden may use the blank period from September 22 to November 8 to start a Jedi counterattack.

Bitfinex is finally doing something about the merger of Ethereum. Yesterday, Bitfinex officially announced that it will launch a derivative asset for the potential fork of Ethereum - Split Token (CSTs), CSTs are divided into ETHW (PoW) and ETHS (PoS), the two tokens will be traded in pairs in the derivatives market. Paolo Ardoino, CTO of Bitfinex, said the CSTs were launched to prepare for all possibilities of an Ethereum merger. Specifically, Bitfinex assumes three potential scenarios:

1. If the Ethereum consensus fails to switch to PoS, ETHS will be zeroed on the CSTs expiry date (December 31), and each ETHW will be redeemable for one ETH.
2. If the Ethereum consensus is successfully switched to PoS, ETHW will be zeroed on the expiration date of CSTs, and each ETHS will be redeemable for one ETH.
3. If the Ethereum consensus is successfully switched to PoS, but the forked PoW chain can continue to run successfully, users will get ETHS and ETHW Tokens on their respective chains at the same time.

Chris Dixon, partner of a16z, continues to be optimistic about the market outlook. In an interview with the Financial Times, he said that the current crypto market downturn has given venture capital firms more investment opportunities. Power on the Internet is currently held by a small group of companies. "What we can do is to create a better Internet, create a new system, and let the network effect accumulate to the community instead of the company." I have to say that this wave of A16z is indeed a stud.

Bitinfocharts data shows that the number of dormant BTC addresses held in the past 5 years has reached a record high of 17.87 million, accounting for 93% of the supply. The highest-ranked dormant address holds 79,957 BTC worth $1.6 billion. 5 dormant addresses hold 185,096 BTC worth about $4 billion. Some BTC that has not been moved for more than 5 years are long-term hoarders, and many BTC were lost in the early stage. In the first 4 years of BTC, 50 BTC could be mined every 10 minutes, which is not rare. Now every 10 minutes, 6.25 pieces can be dug out.

ONE ushered in a major negative, and its largest game on the chain, DeFi Kingdoms, plans to completely break away from Harmony, and will launch its game section called Serendale on the metaverse-focused blockchain Klaytn, which is owned by South Korean internet giant Kakao Corp. public chain products. Legend 4 of the previous boom is on this chain, and considering KLAY's resources, the long-term prospects are still good.

According to Trustnodes, all mainstream Ethereum clients, including Lighthouse and Geth, have launched Merge Ready clients to upgrade the Ethereum mainnet to PoS. Not before September 15th) to the latest version of the client to prevent nodes from going off the network due to the Bellatrix fork on September 6th.

Regarding the sanction of tornado, some people continue to complain to the US government for its injustice. Yesterday, US Congressman Tom Emmer wrote to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, saying, "The increasing use of decentralized technology will certainly Brings new challenges to the US Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) Programmers, those who write code are innocent.

According to Dune Analytics data, the total transaction volume of OpenSea based on the open source NFT protocol Seaport has exceeded 1.1 billion US dollars, and so far is 1,127,176,165 US dollars. In addition, the total number of OpenSea transactions based on the Seaport protocol reached 3,353,212, with 622,293 unique users.

Quotes

BTC: From the perspective of the daily line, the current position has no willingness to rise, and there is no such motivation, so there is a high probability that we will continue to test downwards. August is coming to an end soon, and the rebound month we defined earlier this month is still relatively low. Weak, especially Bitcoin, is too weak. In this case, September will soon be ushered in. Everyone knows that September is the month of interest rate hikes, so there will be more data announcements before the interest rate hike meeting, so the overall It is still mainly based on following the macro-level sentiment.

At the 4-hour level, there is no effective support signal, so be prepared to make progress and explore the bottom. The support below is around 19000. Note that this is short-term and medium-term level support.

ETH: Ethereum broke through $1,670 in the early hours of this morning, but everyone woke up and smashed Ethereum in Asia time. Now it’s buying at European and American time, and selling at Asian time. Considering that the short-term fundamentals of Ethereum have not recovered (gas fee and TVL), and the macro market is about to meet the Jackson Hole annual meeting on Friday, the short-term uncertainty is still quite large, so the short-term probability of Ethereum going big is Very low, but in the medium and long term, considering the deflationary benefits brought about by the merger of Ethereum and the Shanghai upgrade in the longer term, the spot Ethereum is still worth holding for a long time.

[Disclaimer] The above content does not constitute any investment advice. According to the relevant documents of the "Risk Warning on Preventing Illegal Fund Raising in the Name of [Virtual Currency] [Blockchain]" issued by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and other five departments in August 2018, please Look at the blockchain rationally, and don’t blindly trust others. The digital asset market is extremely volatile and risky, and you need to be highly cautious when entering the market.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, put an end to the full-cow stud, and refuse loan leverage.