U.S. consumer inflation expectations have fallen sharply, will tomorrow's CPI data be a bull igniter?

hot spot

The New York Fed yesterday released the latest survey results of inflation expectations. The results showed that consumers' inflation growth expectations for the coming year fell to 6.22% in July from 6.78% in June, the lowest since February this year and the lowest point in history. Inflation expectations fell the fastest in a month. Over the medium term, consumer expectations for inflation three years from now fell to 3.18%, the lowest reading since April 2021. Consumers' expectations for inflation are also in line with CPI expectations to be announced on August 10. Economists expect the year-on-year increase in CPI in July to fall to 8.7% from 9.1% in the previous month. However, after excluding food and energy costs, core inflation will appreciate from 5.9% to 6.1%, which means that although inflation has fallen, it is largely dependent on the relatively volatile food and oil prices.

Judging from the current market expectations data, the high inflation in the United States may finally be close to the peak, but this is no longer important. Now everyone is focusing more on the speed and magnitude of inflation cooling. If inflation is only slightly Down, which is certainly far more than the market expected, then the hype of a recession will ignite again. In short, we should pay attention to the CPI data tomorrow night, which will affect the subsequent financial market trend and prediction.

Yesterday the US Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act (Inflation Reduction Act), which US Senate Majority Leader, Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer called "one of the most important legislation passed in the last decade". ". The bill, as its name suggests, was introduced in response to high inflation, authorizing $430 billion in spending by increasing taxes on large corporations, tackling climate change, lowering the cost of prescription drugs, and reducing the fiscal deficit. Let’s not talk about whether this bill can solve the inflation problem. The huge expenditure of 430 billion US dollars alone is definitely not good for reducing inflation in the short term. This bill is not so much a reduction in inflation, but a reallocation of resources, because the beneficiaries of the bill are rich. People, Private Equity, IRS, Green Agenda, Medicare and Obamacare players, and the victims are Republicans and tech giants, only making tech giants poorer is good for lowering inflation, so this bill is more partisan .

Crypto mixer Tornado Cash has been placed on the Sanctions List (SDN), according to an announcement issued by the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), which prohibits all Americans and entities from violating Tornado Cash or any ether associated with the protocol. If you interact with the wallet address, you will face criminal penalties. “Tornado Cash has been the mixer of choice for cybercriminals seeking to launder the proceeds of crime, as well as helping hackers, including those currently under U.S. sanctions, to launder their cybercrime by masking the origin and movement of illicit virtual currencies,” a senior U.S. government official said. income".

After Laomei issued the announcement, Github has banned the account of Tornado Cash founder Roman Semenov, and then the USDC issuer Circle has also blacklisted the Ethereum addresses in the US Treasury Department’s sanctions list. I have to say that Laomei’s A high degree of openness and inclusion gives them their own powerful rights, which can then be unbridled sanctions in the digital world. However, this is also relatively speaking. There are no absolute sanctions in the crypto world. It is actually very simple to escape. After all, the last bull market started because of DeFi. The current DeFi market is relatively mature. Can carry a lot.

The cryptocurrency market appears to have reached a cycle bottom since Bitcoin fell 75% from its peak, according to a JPMorgan report. According to JPMorgan analysts, we believe the real driver of near-term strength in the cryptocurrency market is the ethereum merger and positive data following the launch of the Sapolia testnet in early July and the Ropsten testnet in June, suggesting that a merger could happen in 2022 . A successful Ethereum merger later this year should help boost sentiment in the crypto market.

The decentralized trading protocol 0x announced that it has aggregated the liquidity of Synthetix on Ethereum and Optimism, and users can use the liquidity on Synthetix when trading through MetaMask and Coinbase Wallet.

Speaking at ETHSeoul on Friday night, Vitalik Buterin predicted that ZK-Rollups will defeat Optimistic Rollups in Ethereum’s Layer 2 scaling war. Buterin compared the two solutions and observed that ZK-Rollups were faster in transferring funds. He emphasized that while Optimistic Rollups are more mature, the fundamentals of ZK-Rollups technology will allow them to replace Optimistic Rollups in the long run. However, Buterin admitted that ZK-Rollups are not yet mature and are currently difficult to build upon. "So at the same time, ZK technology is difficult to build. There are a lot of mental challenges here, especially to do these things safely, to make sure all the circuits are correct. Optimistic Rollups technology is more mature." Although ZK-Rollups is faster , but lack the Ethereum EVM, which makes it difficult for them to run decentralized applications such as DeFi protocols. The EVM is the main processing unit for decentralized applications on the Ethereum blockchain. But that may change soon, as EVM compatibility for ZK-Rollups is under study. Layer 2 projects such as Scroll, zkSync, and Polygon have announced plans to introduce a computing environment called zk-EVM that will allow ZK-Rollups to independently run all types of generic smart contracts. Buterin added: “We’re actually starting to see zk-EVM implementations almost ready to scale Ethereum transactions, which is amazing.”

Yesterday, several exchanges hinted that they are about to support the ETHpow fork, including OKX, BitMEX and other major exchanges, but there have also been a lot of parties who explicitly opposed the agreement, including smart contract wallets Argent, AAVE, etc., but the most important thing is stability Whether the currency will continue to support ETHPOW, previously Tether CTO Paolo Ardoino said that Tether will provide seamless support for ETH2, which has nothing to do with our preference for PoW and PoS, stable coins should act responsibly and avoid disruption to users, DeFi, in particular, is especially nuanced. It is not clear that it will support the ETHPOW fork. If it is not supported by stable coins, it is difficult for the new fork to succeed.

Quotes

BTC: Remember that sentence, a rally is not a bottom, it’s a bottom rally? After the market was silent for 2 days last weekend, it started to move upward again yesterday. This is also a point we have been emphasizing, whether the rebound will end in a certain fixed cycle, so it will run upward after the weak adjustment. However, the rebound is still weak, mainly due to factors from the macro cycle, but we need to be more patient, the rebound is not a one-shot, and the rebound is also a trend of advancing three and retreating two.

At the 4-hour level, the upper resistance is near 24200. After effectively standing firm, the real resistance above is near 28800. Below the support position near 22000.

ETH: Ethereum continued to soar last night, once breaking through the 1800 integer mark, but it fell back during the day, but at present ETH is still in a stable upward channel, this wave of market is very hopeful to break through 2000 dollars, the reason I It has been said many times, the vacuum period of interest rate hikes in August, and the expectation of a merger and fork in September, so Ethereum can get on board at any time this month.

TORN: This wave of tornadoes has been miserable. To be honest, this protocol has done a lot of evil. Basically, only hackers will use it. However, the existence of TORN in the encryption world is also very beneficial to promoting innovation. I remember the previous defi summer. At that time, it was very popular that code is law, so there was a prosperous era of continuous innovation in DEFI, and torn had not seen any code loopholes for so long, and it was considered a high-quality protocol and product. Only government sanctions can shut it down, but the founder should I've thought about this for a long time, it's hard for this kind of project to survive forever.

[Disclaimer] The above content does not constitute any investment advice. According to the relevant documents of the "Risk Warning on Preventing Illegal Fund Raising in the Name of [Virtual Currency] [Blockchain]" issued by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and other five departments in August 2018, please Look at the blockchain rationally, and don’t blindly trust others. The digital asset market is extremely volatile and risky, and you need to be highly cautious when entering the market.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, put an end to the full-cow stud, and refuse loan leverage.