Bitcoin Market Analysis (August 15, 2022)

[Yesterday's resumption] The preliminary reading of the U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence index for August recorded 55.1 on Friday, higher than the expected 52.5. Joanne Hsu, director of consumer surveys at the University of Michigan, said that all components of the expected index have improved, especially For low- and middle-income consumers who are particularly sensitive to inflation. The economic outlook for the year ahead rose sharply, slightly above the average for the second quarter of 2022.

Different role players have different interpretations of the current market. On the one hand, Wall Street traders. Last week's data showed improvement in all aspects. September is expected to be lower than the 75-point rate hike. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve It is believed that relatively good data has more confidence in raising interest rates by 75 basis points, so the market has not yet reached a consensus on the interest rate hike in September. There is also a non-farm payrolls report and inflation data before the September meeting. On September 2, the United States announced the August non-agricultural data, on September 13, the United States announced the August CPI data, and on September 22, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision.

There will be many speeches from Fed officials this week and the release of the minutes of the Fed's July monetary policy meeting. At 22:50 on Monday, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve hosts the 2022 Summer Workshop on Money, Finance, Payments and Finance. At 2 a.m. on Thursday, the Federal Reserve's FOMC released the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting. At 1:20 a.m. on Friday, Kansas Fed President George gave a speech on the outlook for the U.S. economy. At 1:45 a.m., Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participated in a question-and-answer session at a meeting. At 21:00, Richmond Fed President Barkin attended a symposium.

Between now and September 13th, before the last rush data before the September meeting, the market is likely to experience disorderly volatility without direction, which is important to us because the crypto market does not have much In the case of many hot spots, the trend of the encrypted market must be highly related to the macro economy, so we must pay more attention to the every move of the old and the United States.

Polkadot ecological DeFi platform Acala posted on social media that the previous hacking attack was caused by a misconfiguration of the iBTC/aUSD liquidity pool, which led to the wrong mining of a large number of aUSD. The configuration error has been corrected, and the wallet addresses that received the erroneously minted aUSD have been identified, and Acala is tracking these addresses on-chain. According to preliminary on-chain tracking, more than 99% of the aUSD that was minted by mistake is still on the Acala parachain and is exchanged for ACA or other tokens. These erroneously minted aUSD and their exchange tokens remaining on the Acala parachain will be prohibited from being transferred until the Acala community collective governance decides how to resolve the erroneous coinage. On August 15, CoinMarketCap data showed that the Polkadot ecological project Acala Stablecoin aUSD has risen to $0.9013.

The Uniswap community's "fee switch" consensus confirmation (Consensus Check) proposal has been voted through. So far, it has passed the temperature check and consensus confirmation voting stages. According to the Uniswap community governance process, the proposer of the proposal needs to submit the audited code to enter the final on-chain voting stage. If it obtains 40 million votes, it can be passed successfully. At present, the final on-chain voting of the proposal has not been opened. BlockBeats previously reported that on July 20th, the co-founder of PoolTogether launched a proposal to discuss the Uniswap fee switch, including whether the Uniswap fee switch should be turned on and how to use the fee.

According to the Ethereum browser, an Ethereum giant whale address 0x4bAf012726CB5EC7Dda57Bc2770798A38100C44d that has been sleeping for nearly 3 years will transfer out a total of 145,000 ETHs in multiple transactions since yesterday.

Next, let's take a look at the big events in the encryption circle this week:

1. NFT series Meebits announced an IP deal on August 15th, Meebits will receive BAYC-style licensing rights, allowing owners to produce a range of content to propel their Meebits forward in real life and the metaverse.

2. Via Protocol, a cross-chain liquidity aggregation protocol, announced that it will airdrop NFT to early users whose cross-chain amount exceeds $100 from July 15 to August 15. Users who meet the requirements can mint one NFT for free per address.

3. ConsenSys announced the launch of the TURN token for its smart contract auditing service ConsenSys Diligence, which creates a new open market for buyers and sellers of security audits. The token will be available for a limited time on turnplatform.bid from 20:00 on August 15, 2022 to 20:00 on August 19, 2022 Beijing time.

4. Binance.US delisted AMP tokens and closed AMP deposits at 9:00 on August 16th, Beijing time. The SEC names nine digital assets as securities. Of the nine tokens, only Amp (AMP) is listed on the Binance.US platform, and out of an abundance of caution, the decision to delist the AMP token from Binance.US was made in response to market and regulatory developments.

5. The Ethereum testnet Sepolia will undergo a merged execution layer upgrade at block height 1735371 (expected on August 17). This upgrade will cause the clients that have not been converted to PoS on the execution layer to lose their connection, and the node operator The execution layer client needs to be upgraded before this. After the Sepolia upgrade is complete, similar upgrades are expected on Goerli and the Ethereum mainnet, the Ethereum Foundation said.

6. Aptos Incentive Testnet 3, a public chain project, will start registration on August 19th and end on September 9th. After that, the mainnet will be launched in autumn, and testnet 4 will be launched in winter after the mainnet is launched. In the completed testnet 2, a total of 225 nodes participated in the test, distributed in 110 cities in 44 countries around the world. In addition, Aptos will issue token rewards to participants in Incentive Testnet 2 who meet certain conditions.

[Bitcoin market analysis] After the impact of the Luna incident in June, the market needs enough time to recover. From the current daily level, the weak rebound trend has continued and never changed. The upper resistance is around 28500, and it has reached this position. After that, everyone should be careful, and there is a high probability that there will be another bottom trend.

The 4-hour level, I said last week that the current market is a trend of advancing, three retreating, and two, so we must have enough patience. The 4-hour level is still very healthy, and we are firmly optimistic about the trend of continuous rebound, until the real resistance above is around 28500.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, put an end to the full-cow stud, and refuse loan leverage.