hot spot

The U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 528,000 seasonally adjusted in July (250,000 expected), the largest increase since February this year. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. Total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate both returned to pre-pandemic levels. On the surface, the non-farm payrolls data changed the market's expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates, and the probability of a rate hike in September was raised to 75 basis points, higher than the previous 50 basis points. There were even rumors of another temporary rate hike ahead of the September 22 meeting, the last time a rate hike between the two meetings was in April 1994. Also because of the non-farm payrolls data, the market reduced bets on the Fed's rate cut in the first quarter.

What many students do not understand is why the data is so good, but it has turned into a negative situation. In fact, it is not difficult to understand. Because the employment market data is relatively good, the Fed is more confident to raise interest rates, because the data is good enough, and interest rate hikes are not necessary. Worrying that it will put pressure on employment, this is not expected in September, and expectations for interest rate cuts next year are all adjusted by the latest data.

After the market closed last Friday, Fed Governor Poman said that several large rate hikes of 75 basis points should continue to be considered, knowing that inflation has dropped significantly, and the size of the next rate hike will ultimately depend on economic data, although data and economic conditions will There is uncertainty about how it will develop, but he believes that it is appropriate to continue raising interest rates. The big hawk theory is indeed a bit scary. I think such remarks will affect the trend of the stock market tonight. Three-dimensional Fed officials will speak this week. At 23:00 on Wednesday, Chicago Fed President Evans discussed the US economy and monetary policy. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will discuss inflation at 2 p.m. on Thursday. At 7:30 on Friday, San Francisco Fed President Daly was interviewed by Bloomberg.

The most frequently spoken word by the Fed is that future actions will be adjusted according to specific data. Then there will be a non-agricultural data and two CPI reports before the September meeting. On August 10, the United States announced the July CPI data, which is expected by the market. 8.9%, the previous value was 9.1%. On September 2, the United States announced the non-farm payrolls data for August. On September 13, the United States announced the CPI data for August. Since the July non-agricultural data released this time is too good, the data that exceeded expectations by twice exceeded everyone's expectations, so even if the CPI data on August 10 is lower than expected this time, the Fed has enough The ability to control the trend of interest rates, as for raising interest rates by 75 or 50, it has become the means of the Fed to regulate the market.

In the process of converting Ethereum POW to POS, it gave those people with impure purposes the opportunity to clamor for the group of people who forked. Open your eyes to see who they are, and why every time they fork is China People lead, why can I get a lot of leeks every time, I am also more curious, maybe it is profitable, but I have said before, don't go to war, just smash the wool and sell it, then stay away, Stay away from those people. At present, DCG, Chainlink, etc. have clearly stated that they do not support forks. Everyone knows that it is not the miners that decide a chain, but the ecology. The miners only serve the ecology. If you are a POW believer, it is good to directly support ETC, because ETC is The most primitive ETH, or forking for the sake of forking, is either stupid or bad.

Yesterday, Huobi released the "Explanation on Supporting ETH Potential Forks and Handling Plans", expressing an objective and neutral attitude towards assets on the ETH chain that have been successfully forked (including but not limited to mainnet coins), as long as the forked assets meet the security requirements Users will be supported to receive corresponding holding rewards, and trading services of related forked assets will be provided as soon as possible according to user opinions and platform rules. Currently platforms that explicitly support ETH forks include Huobi, poloniex, MEXC, and Gate​.

Chainlink, the oracle protocol, stated on its official website that during and after the merger of Ethereum, the Chainlink protocol and its services will continue to run on Ethereum and do not support forks of the Ethereum network, including PoW forks, which are similar to Ethereum’s The community's decision is unanimous. Like I said before, forking ETH is the hardest thing in the world, because the value of Ethereum comes from ecological prosperity, who is the real Ethereum depends on the choice of ecological projects rather than the choice of miners, which is what I do for Why are you not optimistic about the ETHW fork?

According to L2BEAT data, the total locked volume of Ethereum Layer 2 exceeded 6 billion US dollars, reaching 6.04 billion US dollars, an increase of 12.43% in the past 7 days. Among them, Arbitrum and Optimism led the way in total lock-up volume, accounting for $2.62 billion (43.45%) and $2.24 billion (37.14%) respectively. Optimism's total lock-up volume has increased by 37.56% in the past 7 days.

Quotes

BTC: The trend of Bitcoin over the weekend can basically be said to be sideways. Such a trend also indicates that the direction is coming. The entire market has not been hot except for the merger of Ethereum, and no one in the entire community has discussed it. Such an atmosphere I'm a little scared. The popular phenomenon of the bear market GameFi that we originally predicted has not happened now, because the so-called masterpiece products have not been launched, or have been launched, but it is difficult to popularize the public.

In view of the current situation, we only need to pay attention to whether the market rebound can continue. The reversal is definitely not expected this year, so in the short term, we can expect a rebound. Last week, we said that the market has been rebounding, but it is very, very weak. . From the current 4-hour level, it is still within the rebound range, but there is no clear bottom support signal at the 4-hour level. Although there is support at 8:00 on August 5, this support is too weak and can basically be ignored. Excluding.

At the 4-hour level, the lower support is around 23200 and the upper resistance is around 24200.

ETH: There are already 4 platforms that support the ETHW fork. They are huobi, poloniex, mexc and gate. Although I don’t think the new fork currency can compete with ETH for ecological resources, it is still possible to hype it up. In addition, V God believes that encrypted payment will become mainstream after the ETH merger. The reason why the payment business could not be done before was because the handling fee was too expensive. After the merger, Ethereum will continue to expand, so that the transaction cost can be reduced, and the payment can be done. , but payment is only a corner of the application of ETH. After the merger, deflation + increased pledge will make ETH more scarce. This is the main factor for the short-term value of ETH to increase, and the medium and long-term value depends on the frequency of innovation on the ETH chain and the Ethereum ecosystem. Therefore, ETH is a very good investment target in the short, medium and long term.

FLOW: After a weekend break, FLOW will continue to charge upwards for 3 dollars. Judging from the current capacity, 3 dollars is absolutely unstoppable. Many small partners do not know why FLOW is valuable, because FLOW does not seem to be a serious blockchain , Although the flow ecological hot projects nbatopshot and nflallday are running on the flow chain, they do not use FLOW tokens for settlement. Although the transaction volume is large, the tokens are not empowered. This is indeed the reason why FLOW has been weakening all the way. However, after continuous research, I found that the dapper team has the ability to empower FLOW. For example, the dapper wallet has launched a 10% discount for FLOW settlement, and users will soon transfer from legal currency to FLOW tokens. In addition, The dapper team has discussed the establishment of a FLOW treasury to support the development of the DEFI ecosystem, including liquidity mining, stable coins, etc. These are relative to empowering FLOW tokens, so my conclusion is that the dapper team is capable Empowering the FLOW token will only start after they want to raise the real outside users to a certain level, so FLOW is still worth investing in in the long run.

[Disclaimer] The above content does not constitute any investment advice. According to the relevant documents of the "Risk Warning on Preventing Illegal Fund Raising in the Name of [Virtual Currency] [Blockchain]" issued by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and other five departments in August 2018, please Look at the blockchain rationally, and don’t blindly trust others. The digital asset market is extremely volatile and risky, and you need to be highly cautious when entering the market.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, put an end to the full-cow stud, and refuse loan leverage.