Which side is time on? The current situation and prospects of the Taiwan Strait crisis

(1) If Lai Ching-te wins the election, will cross-Strait relations change?

Taiwan's presidential election ended with Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party winning. The question that all parties are most concerned about right now is: What changes will happen to cross-strait relations when Lai Ching-te takes over as President of Taiwan?
As I said before, if Lai Ching-te is elected president, there will be no major changes in cross-strait relations, and the CCP will not use force against Taiwan. Because Lai Qingde made it clear that he will maintain the status quo on cross-strait issues and will not pursue Taiwan independence. By the way, what is Taiwan independence as defined by the Chinese Communist Party? It's very simple, that is to amend the Constitution of the Republic of China and remove the sentence "Mainland area belongs to the Republic of China". But since Lai Ching-te declares that he will abide by the Constitution of the Republic of China and will not amend it, the CCP will not use force against Taiwan.
But there will be small changes. Because Lai Qingde is inherently greener than Tsai Ing-wen. In his victory speech, Lai Ching-te did not call Taiwan the Republic of China but "Taiwan, the Republic of China" and referred to the mainland as "China". In the eyes of the CCP, this implies a strong Taiwanese independence flavor. Therefore, the mainland will definitely make a series of actions to put pressure on Lai Qingde. In fact, because the CCP also predicted that Lai Qingde was likely to win the election, it began to exert pressure as early as December last year and announced the suspension of tariff concessions for 12 categories of products under the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA); in Two days before the vote, the Chinese Communist Party authorities announced that they were preparing to further suspend tariff concessions on early-harvest agriculture, fishery, machinery, auto parts, textiles and other products. Just the day after Taiwan's general election was announced, the South Pacific island nation of Nauru announced that it would cut off diplomatic relations with Taiwan, deleting one of the only 12 countries it has diplomatic relations with. All these indicate that the CCP is exerting pressure on Lai Qingde. The CCP may continue to take similar actions.
In November last year, the US magazine "Foreign Affairs" published an article by American scholars Bonnie Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss and Thomas Christensen. The article said that to deter the CCP from using force in the Taiwan Strait, it is not enough for the United States to rely on military threats alone. The United States must not only make threats of punishment but also provide Beijing with "credible reassurances." In order to make this kind of "Reassurance" has worked effectively. They suggested that once Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate Lai Ching-te wins the election, he should consider freezing the Taiwan Independence Party's platform. If Lai Ching-te freezes the Taiwan Independence Party platform, the Chinese Communist Party will also make some responses. For example, it will no longer continue to poach Taiwan’s diplomatic allies, reopen mainland China’s free travel and group tours to Taiwan, restore certain measures in the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), and so on. However, because Lai Ching-te is likely to be like Tsai Ing-wen, refusing to recognize the 1992 Consensus and refusing to directly say that the mainland and Taiwan belong to the Republic of China, that is, two sides, one China, the interaction between the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits and the Taiwan Strait Foundation is still inconsistent. will recover.
As mentioned earlier, Lai Qingde will not amend the constitution, so the CCP will not use force against Taiwan. But this does not mean that as long as Taiwan is not independent, the mainland will not use force. The Ministry of National Security of the Communist Party of China issued a document on January 16, referring to the Anti-Secession Law passed by the Communist Party of China in 2005. The "Anti-Secession Law" clearly stipulates three situations for the use of force against Taiwan: 1. "Taiwan independence" separatist forces in any name and by any means cause Taiwan to split from China; 2. Major events that lead to Taiwan's split from China ; 3. The possibility of peaceful reunification is completely lost. Pay attention to the third situation. This means that even if the Taiwan independence forces did not cause Taiwan’s separation from China in any name or by any means, even if there were no major events that led to Taiwan’s separation from China, as long as the Chinese Communist authorities themselves subjectively determine If the possibility of peaceful reunification is completely lost, it can use force against Taiwan.
According to this article, since many polls have shown that Taiwanese people, regardless of blue or green, reject the "one country, two systems, peaceful reunification" plan proposed by the CCP, especially since many polls have shown that the majority of Taiwanese people only identify themselves as Taiwanese and do not If you identify yourself as Chinese, then from the perspective of the CCP, this can be regarded as the possibility of peaceful reunification has been completely lost, so it can already use force against Taiwan. Even if Taiwan does not amend its constitution, it can still use force. The Anti-Secession Law also stipulates that the State Council and the Central Military Commission can take action when necessary and then notify the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress. This means that the "Anti-Secession Law" authorizes the Communist army to kill first and then report later. This means that even if the CCP uses force against Taiwan tomorrow, it can still plausibly claim that it has a good reputation.
The reason why the CCP does not plan to use force against Taiwan at the moment is to put it bluntly: it is afraid of the intervention of the US military. This issue will be discussed below.

(2) Ukraine and Taiwan

Russia launched a war of aggression against Ukraine, reminding people of Taiwan. The CCP's attack on Taiwan is somewhat comparable to Russia's attack on Ukraine, but there are also incomparable differences. Russia's attack on Ukraine can have several different strategic goals: Goal A - it is best to overthrow the Zelensky government and build a A pro-Russian government will then hold a referendum and Ukraine declares its return to Russia. This is the best thing for it. If this goal is not achieved, the next best option is goal B - fostering a pro-Russian government. If this is still not possible, then goal C is to divide Ukraine into two parts and occupy the entire eastern part of Ukraine with the Dnieper River as the boundary. If this goal cannot be achieved, then it is goal D-occupy some counting points in the Wudong area. As long as it occupies some more places than before the war started on February 24 of the previous year, Putin can declare that his special military operation has been a success. .

The Russia-Ukraine war has been going on for more than two years. Now it seems that Russia's goals A, B, and C have not been achieved. It will not be easy for Ukraine to regain its lost territory and drive the Russian army back to before February 24, the year before last. It is difficult for both sides to reach a peace agreement.

The CCP’s attack on Taiwan is different from Russia’s attack on Ukraine. The CCP can only have one strategic goal, and that is reunification. If it cannot achieve reunification, it will lose. No matter how much damage it causes to Taiwan, for the CCP, if it cannot achieve reunification, it will lose. The CCP knows this, so it does not dare to start war lightly.

Although Ukraine is a sovereign country recognized by the international community, for various reasons, when Russia invaded Ukraine, no country directly sent troops to help. This is why Russia dared to invade Ukraine. NATO is close at hand and separated by a thin line. If NATO is willing to send troops to help, Russia will not dare to fight. Although Taiwan is not widely recognized by the international community, the United States has the Taiwan Relations Act. If the CCP invades Taiwan with force, the United States is likely to send troops to help. Therefore, at this stage, the CCP will not use force to unify Taiwan.

(3) The CCP’s “Beiping Model” of reunifying Taiwan

Recently, military aircraft and warships from China, Taiwan and the United States have frequently appeared in the Taiwan Strait. This makes many people worry about whether the gun will go off and trigger a war.

I thought the possibility of a misfire causing a war was very small. Yan Xuetong, an expert on international relations of the Communist Party of China and dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University, said: “At present, there will be no intentional misfires in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, because the United States, mainland China, and Taiwan have all three parties in control of military operations. Very strict. So, first of all, the possibility of a gunfire in these areas is very small; secondly, even if a gunfire occurs, the relevant parties must be able to control it in time to prevent it from developing into a war."

Will the CCP attempt to unify Taiwan by force in the near future? Qiao Liang, a hawk of the Chinese Communist Party, author of the book "Unrestricted Warfare" and Major General of the People's Liberation Army, said: The current situation in Taiwan is that there is no hope of cultural reunification, and the only option is military reunification. However, we should not rush forward rashly, because the key to solving the Taiwan issue is to first resolve the strength of China and the United States. Compared. Before China and the United States can distinguish themselves, the Taiwan issue cannot be completely resolved. As long as China continues to improve and strengthen its ability to overcome external constraints, once the United States is unable to intervene, regaining Taiwan will be like grabbing something from a bag.

Wang Zaixi, the former deputy director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the Communist Party of China, once told the media that there is a third path to choose between peaceful reunification and military reunification, which is to adopt the "Beiping model" of encircling but not attacking, and only attacking outer islands. Use war to force peace, use force to promote reunification, and force Taipei to submit.

What the CCP is betting on is that after a period of time, China's military power will further increase. Although it is not global, but as long as it gains advantages in local areas of the Taiwan Strait, when it assumes a posture of military unification of Taiwan, the United States will consider whether it can commit the crime. To have a direct sword fight with China for such a distant Taiwan. Once the United States refuses to directly send troops, then in the face of the CCP's army pressing down on the border and approaching the city, Taiwan may have no choice but to be "peacefully unified" under "one country, two systems".

(4) Will the United States send troops to help?

Whether it is out of sharing of universal values ​​or out of strategic considerations for the first island chain, the United States is adhering to its commitment to protect Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act. This is the position that successive U.S. governments have maintained for more than 40 years. However, the Taiwan Relations Act is ambiguous. It did not clearly state whether the United States would send troops or just sell weapons once the CCP uses force against Taiwan. In recent years, President Biden has made it clear several times in answering questions from reporters that the United States is willing to intervene in military operations to protect Taiwan. But this is only President Biden’s position. Will future US presidents also adhere to this position? If the international situation changes in a few years and the balance of power between the United States and China changes, will the U.S. government still adhere to this tough stance?

In 2021, the American think tank "Chicago Council on Global Affairs" conducted a poll. That poll showed that if China invaded Taiwan with force, more than half of Americans supported sending troops to protect it. From June to July 2022, a poll of 14 countries by the German Marshall Fund in the United States and the Bertelsmann Foundation in Germany showed that if China invades Taiwan with force, most respondents would support diplomatic measures and economic sanctions in response. , less than 5% agreed to send weapons and military assistance to Taiwan; even the United States, which supports Taiwan the most, agreed to send weapons and military assistance to Taiwan, less than 10%. In August of the same year, Pelosi visited Taiwan, and the CCP conducted large-scale military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. These two incidents have intensified the international community's attention to Taiwan and strengthened the support for Taiwan among people in democratic countries, especially the United States. If another poll were conducted, the results would likely be different from the last time.

I believe that if the CCP invades Taiwan with force, most people in democratic countries will support diplomatic measures and economic sanctions in response. Fewer will agree to send weapons and even fewer will agree to send troops. Taiwan is an island with natural straits and natural chasms, making it easy to defend but difficult to attack. But because Taiwan is an island, it is more difficult for other countries to transport supplies and weapons, and it is also more difficult to accept refugees. The most serious problem is that currently, most countries in the world and international organizations such as the United Nations recognize that there is only one China and Taiwan is part of China. This means that if the CCP uses force against Taiwan, the international community will find it difficult to provide substantive help to Taiwan because it is China's internal affairs.

Yes, the late former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe once said: If something happens to Taiwan, something will happen to Japan. But this was said by Abe after he stepped down. It would not be easy to say this on stage. After Abe said that "anything that happens to Taiwan means something to Japan," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Communist Party of China protested. The Japanese government rejected China's protest on the grounds that "Shinzo Abe is no longer a government official." Since Japan and Taiwan currently do not even have formal diplomatic relations, how could Japan send troops to help when the CCP invades Taiwan with force?

(5) Be wary of Taiwan becoming a victim

In the United States, there have always been different voices. Graham Allison, a professor at Harvard University and the author of the "Thucydides Trap" theory, once published an article in "Foreign Affairs" titled "The United States must learn to respect the spheres of influence of other major powers." The article mentioned that during the Yalta Conference on February 4, 1945, George Kennan, later known as the "Father of Containment Strategy", gave a message to his colleague Charles Kennan, then President Roosevelt's Russian translator and chief adviser on the Soviet Union. Boren sent an urgent secret letter. The letter stated that the Soviet Union would try its best to maintain large-scale control over Europe, and the question was what countermeasures the United States should take. Kennan asked: "Why can't we come to terms with it with dignity and certainty - candidly divide Europe into spheres of influence for the United States and the Soviet Union - ensuring that we do not enter Russia's sphere of influence and that Russia does not invade our territory? ?”

Allison writes that Kennan's proposition, which became the backbone of U.S. strategy in subsequent decades, was based on the acceptance of spheres of influence, the recognition that certain areas would be dominated by the Soviet Union. Over the next 40 years, several U.S. presidents experienced crises when freedom fighters seeking to exercise those rights within Soviet-dominated countries were suppressed because the American creed declared certain rights to be universal. The option of sending in troops should be considered. However, every US president has, without exception, chosen to observe rather than intervene: for example, Eisenhower faced the Hungarian incident in October 1956, Johnson faced the "Prague Spring" of 1968, and so on.

It is conceivable that if the U.S. government accepts Allison's proposition and accepts the U.S. and China's respective spheres of influence just as the U.S. and the Soviet Union accepted each other's spheres of influence during the Cold War, Taiwan is likely to be the first victim.

(6) The "one China, two governments" model is a feasible way

Due to the huge disparity in size between Taiwan and the mainland, Taiwan's security requires the maintenance of the international community. However, due to Taiwan's lack of international recognition, it is difficult for Taiwan's security to be maintained by the international community. So far, the only external support Taiwan has received is from the United States. In the long term, Taiwan still needs more external support. In recent years, Taiwan's visibility in the international community has increased significantly. However, Taiwan's international status has not been substantially improved.

Last year, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill by voice vote without objection aimed at assisting Taiwan in resisting China's diplomatic isolation. It clarified that the United Nations Resolution 2758 passed in 1971 only recognized representatives of the People's Republic of China as China's only legitimate representatives in the United Nations, and It does not address Taiwan's representation in the United Nations, nor does it take a position on the relationship between the People's Republic of China and Taiwan, or contain any statements concerning Taiwan's sovereignty.

This bill seems to provide a feasible way for other countries to recognize Taiwan. But the problem is that this bill has only passed the House of Representatives and has not yet passed the Senate. Some of Taiwan's diplomatic allies originally wanted to use the reinterpretation of United Nations Resolution 2758 proposed in this bill to promote Taiwan's entry into the United Nations. However, at the recent United Nations meeting, even these pro-Taiwan countries did not propose it as a formal motion to the General Assembly. It’s easy to understand why other countries are hesitant: If it is feasible to recognize Taiwan in this way, why doesn’t the US government take the lead in doing so? The British Foreign Secretary also gave a speech, agreeing with the new interpretation of UN Resolution 2758, but the UK itself did not recognize Taiwan in this way. It can be seen that this approach cannot help Taiwan escape from its international isolation.

In my opinion, the simplest and most feasible way to get Taiwan out of its isolation is for the United States to establish diplomatic relations with the Republic of China while maintaining formal diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China. This is the "one China, two governments" model, which is also the two-Korea model. Since the CCP itself has long ceased to oppose "one China, two governments" when declaring its "one China" principle since 2000, and has long ceased to oppose the two-Korean model of handling cross-strait relations, it therefore It was impossible to react violently to this. Regarding the legal basis and practical feasibility of establishing diplomatic relations between the United States and Taiwan, I have discussed in detail in the article "This is the time for the United States to establish diplomatic relations with Taiwan." It won’t be repeated here.

(7)Which side is time on?

In April 2005, I once wrote an article "Which Side Is Time on?" The last paragraph of the article reads: "Everything comes down to time. Whose side will time be on? Many people will say that time will be on Taiwan's side. Because Taiwan is on the right side of history. But this is a response to a longer period of time. In terms of the future. The opposite situation may also occur in the shorter future. The key is the mainland. As time goes by, will the mainland become liberal and democratic, or will it become very powerful but still authoritarian? Conclusion: It must be vigorously catalyzed Mainland China’s freedom and democracy. Whether the mainland can embark on the road of freedom and democracy in a timely manner is related to the vital interests of the mainland people, to world peace and stability, and to the life and death of Taiwan’s freedom and democracy.”

19 years have passed. In the past 19 years, the mainland has not become liberal and democratic, but has become stronger and more authoritarian. Taiwan is less safe today than it was 19 years ago. Of course, Taiwan will still be safe in 3 or 5 years; but what about in 5 or 10 years? If the current trend continues, autocratic China may become more powerful in the future. Not only is Taiwan likely to fall, but the situation in the entire world will be unimaginable. Therefore, we must fundamentally reverse this trend, and we must promote changes in mainland China toward freedom and democracy.