Prediction of the possible candidates for the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China

In the fall of 2022, if there is no accident, the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held as scheduled.

This congress is the first and the third time the National Congress of the Communist Party of China is led by the same top leader after the reform and opening up abolished the lifetime system of leadership positions, and Xi Jinping again abolished this measure to a limited extent. (The long single sentence is a bit long, which is roughly what it means).

So after this party congress, who will be the new candidates for the Politburo Standing Committee? Many media in the market have their own predictions. So I'll make some predictions based on what I've seen and heard.

First of all, before making predictions, we must give the following principles:

1. Xi Jinping's three-term re-election is unstoppable - there is no way, the opposition within the party is too wasteful. In 2018, no one was a man, and even the constitutional amendment was not blocked. In the future, unless there is a coup like Brezhnev (which is unlikely to succeed), Xi Jinping will serve as the general secretary of the Communist Party of China three times in 2022. .
2. The principles of "seven up and eight down" and "70-year-old cap" are bound to be more strictly implemented. There are too many cronies that Xi Jinping wants to reward, but the pie is so big. If the principle of age-retirement is not strictly implemented, it will inevitably lead to more infighting within the CCP, and it will be very unfavorable for the consolidation of Xi Jinping’s own power and position. Therefore, Xi Jinping is only for his limited restoration of life-long leadership positions. Except for him, retirement at age will be more strictly implemented.
3. There is a high probability that the 20th CPC Politburo Standing Committee will not shrink or expand. It is neither necessary nor easy to dilute Xi Jinping's power. Just imagine that the Secretary of the Political and Legal Committee is a member of the Political Bureau obediently being led by Xi Jinping? Or become a member of the seven-member group to gain the position of negotiating with Xi Jinping (note that it only refers to status), and it is not so easy to be led well? Downsizing is even more impossible. The downsizing is equivalent to Xi Jinping's disguised abolition of the Politburo Standing Committee and a complete return to the situation of his own promises in the Mao era. Judging from the just-passed third historical resolution of the CCP, the opposition forces within the party still have the ability to block Xi Jinping to this extent.
4. Xi Jinping will not be the only member of the Standing Committee of the 19th National Congress to stay until the 20th National Congress, but no more than three people will stay. This is very simple. Xi Jinping doesn't care about finding successors for himself, but that doesn't mean he doesn't care about finding successors for others. Judging from the fact that major official media have repeatedly issued articles emphasizing the importance of the succession issue, it should not be a problem for the Standing Committee of the 20th National Congress to enter four "post-60s" or quasi-"post-60s" (born no earlier than 1959). 7-4=3, a simple math problem.

After talking about the "four basic principles" on which my analysis is based above, we can get a general overview. First, the Politburo Standing Committee of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will enter four "post-60s" or quasi "post-60s", namely Chen Min'er, Hu Chunhua, Ding Xuexiang, and Li Qiang.

Secondly, I can't give a sufficient estimate on whether Li Keqiang will stay on the Standing Committee, but I feel that Li Keqiang may arrange for a vice-chairman to retire or retire directly -- of course, this is not necessarily the case, the possibility of becoming the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress There are still some.

Then we will expand in detail.

1. The supreme leader , Xi Jinping was re-elected for the third time. I don't think there's anything to say about this.

2. Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress. If Li Keqiang does not resign from the Standing Committee, it is undoubtedly the strongest solution to follow Li Peng's precedent to succeed the chairman of the National People's Congress. If Li Keqiang resolutely withdraws from the Standing Committee for the purpose of succeeding Hu Chunhua as the premier, it will be one of the current 19th Standing Committee members, most likely Wang Huning or Zhao Leji.

3. Prime Minister. There is a high probability that Hu Chunhua will take over. In short, at present, the possibility of surprise appointment of Li Qiang as deputy prime minister and then the 20th National Congress and the subsequent two sessions of the country is very unlikely. The candidates are nothing more than Hu Chunhua, Han Zheng, and Wang Yang.

Needless to say, Wang Yang is the least likely one.

Han Zheng, many media will take Zhu Rongji as an example, saying that Han Zheng will be prime minister for one term and then retire. However, it should be noted that before Zhu Rongji took over as prime minister, the principle of "seven ups and eight downs" had not been proposed (the "seven ups and eight downs" principle was a rule set by Jiang Zemin in order to remove Li Ruihuan when Hu Jintao took over in 2002). Therefore, Han Zheng is also older, so compared with Hu Chunhua, the possibility of Han Zheng staying in office is still lower.

Hu Chunhua has obvious advantages, such as age advantages, experience advantages, and great advantages in all aspects. In other words, except for Han Zheng, as long as he can succeed the prime minister, no one else can.

In addition to this, the issue of ranking among the Standing Committee is very important. The Prime Minister's ranking has never dropped out of the top three. If Hu Chunhua takes over as prime minister, then as an ordinary member of the Politburo in the 19th session, he can only skip the ranking of one person in the current Standing Committee at most. This also confirms the fourth basic principle I just mentioned above: no more than three people from the current Standing Committee of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China can stay.

Fourth, the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. The CPPCC's idle time will definitely not choose the post-60s generation to take over. Therefore, one of the current members of the 19th Standing Committee will be elected. Wang Yang has the best chance of being re-elected, and it is not impossible for Zhao Leji to go further, but Zhao Leji has no experience of uniting the front. If he has to say it, he feels that it may be more appropriate for him to go to the National People's Congress or retire directly.

5. Secretary of the Secretariat of the Central Committee. There is a high probability that Ding Xuexiang will take over. When Ding Xuexiang joined the Standing Committee, he really couldn't do anything else. He was only suitable for the CPPCC and the secretariat. The CPPCC can't give it to him, so he can only pick up Wang Huning's class.

6. Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. Before the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Wang Qishan once went to Guizhou to inspect Chen Min'er to see if he could succeed the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. In the end, it may be due to various reasons. Anyway, Chen Min'er did not join the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection; Instead, continue exercising.

In short, Chen Min'er will definitely be admitted to the 20th National Congress this time, but other seats cannot be given to him, so the position of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection is naturally his.

Of course, the exchange of Ding Xuexiang and Chen Miner is not ruled out, that is, Chen Miner will be the executive secretary of the secretariat, and Ding Xuexiang will be in charge of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. Such a possibility is also possible.

7. Executive Vice Premier of the State Council. There is no doubt that it belongs to Li Qiang. Li Qiang was the fourth prime minister's successor choice other than Hu Chunhua, Han Zheng, and Wang Yang, and Xi Jinping's men are suitable for this job except Li Qiang. It happened that a mother-in-law was arranged for Hu Chunhua in the State Council, and such a layout was considered to be seamless.

Speaking of vice premiers, there are four vice premiers in total. Excluding the first executive vice-premier who entered the Politburo Standing Committee - at present, the candidate I predict is Li Qiang, who will succeed the current Han Zheng.

The other three vice premiers, Chen Quanguo, were recently observed by the media as the deputy head of the Central Rural Work Leading Group under Hu Chunhua. So he may go to the State Council as vice premier and take over Hu Chunhua's class. And it is unlikely that Chen Quanguo would retire in this position, as mentioned in "Night Talks on Zhongnanhai";

Chen Yiqin may take over the current class of Sun Chunlan;

He Lifeng may take over the current class of Liu He.

In addition, the probability that Zhou Qiangqiang, the president of the Supreme Court, has already reached the top of his career, and the next step may be to go to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress to be a vice-chairman or something for the elderly. As for the successor of the Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Committee, I have been kept in the dark for the time being. At present, I feel that Ying Yong or Chen Yixin are very likely.

In addition, I am more optimistic about Zhang Qingwei's next career direction. I personally think that he has a very high possibility of entering the Politburo at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. After all, the secretary of the Hunan Provincial Party Committee went to visit the bronze statue of Mao Zedong in Shaoshan on his first day in office to show his loyalty. , is indeed a great wisdom.

To sum up: I think the possible list of the 20th Politburo Standing Committee is as follows:

1. Xi Jinping
2. Li Keqiang (Wang Huning, Zhao Leji)
3. Hu Chunhua
4. Wang Yang
5. Ding Xuexiang (Chen Miner)
6. Chen Miner (Ding Xuexiang)
7. Li Qiang
8. The remaining three vice premiers: Chen Yiqin, Chen Quanguo, and He Lifeng.

You are also welcome to leave your thoughts in the comments section.