What is "science"?
Public Number: Cross the Bridge Potato/guoqiaopotato
In China, the total real estate price in the three cities of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou is already 70% of that in the United States. This bubble is obvious. But you have to ask whether the house price will fall sharply, which is not easy to say.
We have to figure out what a crash is. 20% or 50%. We still have to figure out at what point in time the crash occurred. In 10 years, or in 100 years. We also need to figure out what currency unit the slump is measured in. The unit of RMB is still US dollar, still gold, or Bitcoin.
It can be seen from this that if we talk about the rise and fall of housing prices, there must be many constraints. Adding these conditions is a scientific attitude, and the conclusion obtained is a scientific conclusion (of course, a scientific conclusion is not equal to correct conclusion).
Having successfully predicted the Asian financial crisis, Xie Guozhong, the former Morgan Stanley employee, should be at a good level. But he predicted in 2013 that house prices would fall by half, and those who listened to him suffered heavy losses.
Xie Guozhong's conclusion is not scientific, but many people still believe it. It is not the reason for the scientific conclusion, but the conclusion, which can only be confirmed, not falsified. Science has to be falsifiable.
"Confirmation" is easier to understand. Xie Guozhong said that house prices fell by half. If house prices really fell by 50% one day, then Xie Guozhong's conclusion would be confirmed.
However, it cannot be falsified. Just because the house price has not fallen this year does not mean that it will not fall next year, and the house price will continue to rise in the second year, and they will say, "The price may deviate from the value for a long time, but it will eventually return to the value", and it will fall sharply in the future. Even if there is no big drop after 100 years, it still cannot be proved wrong, because as long as it falls in the 101st year, it will be correct, and the experts will be invincible.
This is what we call "unfalsifiable". So from here you can realize the importance of falsifiability to scientific conclusions.
There are many conclusions in the world that seem to be correct but cannot be falsified. For example, people are always going to die, God exists, "You can't understand it because you can't achieve it", "The effect of traditional Chinese medicine is not good, and it is due to individual differences." ".
There is also a class of conclusions that cannot be falsifiable, those that are eternally true. For example, "it will rain tomorrow or it will not rain". Because it is always right. These kinds of propositions are not scientific conclusions.
Of course, this example might feel like an underestimate of everyone's intelligence. In fact, it is not. Go to the news and there are a lot of words like "it will rain tomorrow or it will not rain". For example, "We want both... and...", "... is both... and...". Of course, the two objects before and after the omission are themselves opposites. These invariably true, unfalsifiable conclusions are meaningless, but are often disguised as science.
So, what is "science"? What kind of conclusions are scientific conclusions? The definition of "scientific" will not be copied, but a few points that are easily overlooked.
Science values methods and processes, not conclusions. Scientific conclusions are not necessarily equal to correct conclusions.
In science, we emphasize the spirit of evidence, the repeatability and verifiability of experimental results, and the idea of constantly overthrowing past authority. Because only in this way, the accumulation of knowledge can be superimposed, and people can make continuous progress on the basis of their predecessors.
Scientific conclusions can be established only conditionally. For example, the price issue just now. "Conditional" is the basis for us to judge whether a conclusion is scientific or not. In science, there is no one-size-fits-all truth, although we often see many claims in the news. This statement itself is unscientific.
Scientific conclusions do not equal correct conclusions, and vice versa, correct conclusions are not necessarily scientific. For example, Aristotle said that heavier objects fall faster than lighter ones. This conclusion is obviously incorrect, but it is scientific because it is easy to verify and falsify experimentally.
The scientific method and spirit should be possessed by each of us. Even if you do not engage in science and technology, it will be of great help to our life.
...
The conclusion of science is acceptable to anyone to challenge the falsification, such as the theory of relativity, which has been challenged by many people.
Philip Leonard, a German who won the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1905 and discovered the "photoelectric effect", and Johanne, a German who discovered the Doppler effect of tunnel rays, together with the Nobel Laureate in Physics in 1919 Stark, who united to criticize the Jewish scientist Einstein, and advocated "German physics", divided physics into "physics" and "Aryan physics", is it familiar?
Until the total solar eclipse observation in 1919, the Cambridge University group experiment led by the British physicist Eddington supported Einstein's theory of relativity.
Until today, we have verified Einstein's theory of relativity from atomic clocks and GPS global positioning systems.
Therefore, the latest Professor Li Zifeng from Yanshan University, we hope he can challenge successfully.
Raise the prestige of our country.
...
Another: I found on a website that Professor Li Zifeng sued Guoke.com. If you are interested, you can click on the original link to watch
...
Today's news:
none
Posted on: June 23, 2021
Like my work? Don't forget to support and clap, let me know that you are with me on the road of creation. Keep this enthusiasm together!
