After the flood, rethinking of "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration"

​A natural disaster reduced Zhuozhou, Hebei to a "moat".

Although many people are still questioning why the flood was so sudden and whether there is a better option, since the epidemic, a debate has surfaced more and more frequently: in the game of "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration" Now, whose interests are always sacrificed? Under the premise of focusing on the overall situation, how will the well-being of 75 million Hebei residents, 21 million Beijing residents, and 13 million Tianjin residents develop? Furthermore, what should be done next for the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration"?

local can not be ignored

There is a stalk on the Internet, which implicitly expresses the hierarchical relationship of "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei": "Jing Jin Ji, less, less."

In other words, this seems to be a concentric circle system. From the inside to the outside, the resources gradually decrease, and the further the outer circle, the worse the situation. Not only that, the more peripheral it is, the more it needs to be subject to deployment, first to meet the development and needs of the core part, and to go beyond it is even less dared to think.

Tianjin used to be the economic center of the north in modern times, but no one thinks so anymore, because obviously, Beijing is.

As the capital of Hebei Province from 1958 to 1966, the prosperity of Tianjin was still higher than that of Beijing. However, after being directly under the central government, it lost Hebei Province as its economic hinterland, and Tianjin's development fell into self-isolation.

Anyone with a discerning eye can see that the economic development between Tianjin and Hebei lacks synergy, because they can only play supporting roles for Beijing.

As for Hebei, there is even a poignant black humor: "Hebei people envy any province other than Hebei."

A Hebei native on "Zhihu" once put it bluntly: "How much uncoordinated development can be achieved on your own, but if you are coordinated, you have to look at other people's eyes for development. Environmental protection, limited production... put your most proud and most profitable The industry is suppressed, and there is no one size fits all. The small county in my hometown has to limit the number of cars in winter. Why? It must not be because there are too many cars and the roads are too congested. what?"

Under this "overall situation", the top priority task passed down from the administrative level to Hebei Province is to guarantee and cooperate with Beijing.

In this way, many local policies will inevitably have no autonomy, as if they do not exist for themselves, but for the needs of others.

This "guard mentality" has taken root in the local society, and many Hebei people are quite proud of it, because in their minds, Beijing is not "another province at the same level", but a "capital" with a different status .

Hebei has also been known as rich in history, with heavy industry, minerals, and food, and everything is lacking, but today, none of them are considered outstanding.

The reasons for this are of course very complicated, but the key point is that the top priority of these local productions is not its own development, but to ensure that Beijing will not be interrupted in an emergency.

The key here is: Who is "integrating"?

In this "big picture", cities in Hebei such as Zhuozhou, and even Tianjin, must first place themselves in the right position: you are all in a position of being "integrated", and you must obey the overall situation and follow orders, and you should not even have your own special local interests. , but to "focus on the overall situation", in other words, you are the object of integration, not the subject.

Historian Ma Junya's book "The Sacrificial "Parts"——Research on Social and Ecological Changes in Huaibei (1680-1949)" studies his hometown Huaibei, but the logic of political economy he reveals is widely used in China. fitness.

He pointed out that from the Qing Dynasty to modern times, a considerable part (or even the main part) of the so-called "three major southeast governments" (water affairs, river affairs, and salt affairs) were concentrated in the Huaibei area, especially in the Ming and Qing dynasties, water transportation was the highest priority. In principle, in order to ensure the passage of the Grand Canal, Huaibei's natural ecology, farming conditions, and water conservancy advantages have to be sacrificed. "This water control strategy is destined to sacrifice the interests of Huaibei to ensure the 'overall interests'."

The result is the long-term and general impoverishment of Huaibei society. "Along with the ecological decay, the humanistic spirit and folk customs in Huaibei area are also degraded. The collapsed ecology has cultivated deformed human qualities."

Why does it seem that the coordinated development of "a game of chess" finally produces such a result? The problem here may be that political economy takes precedence over market economics. The strong intervention of the "visible hand" often does not focus on the economic prosperity of a certain place, but aims to serve a larger goal.

Under certain circumstances, this is indeed conducive to avoiding redundant construction and effectively allocating resources, but planning can never replace the market, and the requirement of benign politics is still to win the hearts of the people.

Two different integrations

An unavoidable reality is that in the past two decades, the gap between Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei has been widening, and the so-called "poverty belt around Beijing" is not just a joke.

In the past two years, I have been to Yanjiao Town in Hebei Province and Huaqiao Town in Kunshan City. They are close to the borders of Beijing and Shanghai respectively. It can be said that they intuitively present the "spillover effect" of these two metropolises.

Yanjiao is known as the "No. 1 Town in Hebei". Since the concept of "Beijing Tongzhou will become the sub-center of the city" was put forward in 2013, the number of home buyers has exploded. However, you can clearly feel the gap between it and Beijing in terms of urban construction on the street, unlike Huaqiao, which is almost the same as the Jiading District of Shanghai next door.

In the past two years, the housing market in the area around Beijing has led the country in decline, with the deepest decline exceeding 60%. The sense of loss of the local people can be imagined. Major real estate developers such as China Fortune Land Development and Fucheng Group suffered heavy losses.

From 2000 to 2019 before the outbreak, after accounting for population changes, Beijing’s per capita GDP growth rate was 10% faster than the national average, but Tianjin’s was 16% slower, and Hebei’s was 29% slower . Hebei, with a population of 74 million, once surpassed Beijing, with a population of 21 million, in the past two years.

Many people may not remember now that until 2000, Hebei’s per capita GDP was still 12% higher than the national average, even surpassing Shandong, a powerful northern economic province, but by 2019 it had lagged behind the national average by 35%. Ranked 26th among provinces and municipalities.

Taking Beijing as the benchmark, the per capita GDP of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei was 100:72:37 in 2000, but it has become 100:55:28 by 2019. This is still in the case of Beijing’s population increase, and the gap between the three places is still Pulling away means that the speed of population gathering cannot catch up with the speed of resource gathering.

In comparison, the gap between Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai has gradually narrowed over the same period, leading to "common prosperity": Shanghai's per capita GDP was once twice as high as that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, but it has been narrowing in the past two decades, and Suzhou has even achieved This is the first time in a century and a half that Shanghai has surpassed Shanghai.

It is also economic integration, how is the Yangtze River Delta different?

At first glance, they are similar in some respects: Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui have undertaken a lot of "spillover" opportunities from Shanghai, and they all recognize that Shanghai is the economic leader in the region, but they also have to consider their own interests, and they are willing to take the initiative only when there are benefits Connecting with Shanghai, or undertaking industrial transfer, is often mutually beneficial and win-win; but in the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration", it gives the impression that Hebei and Tianjin have no bargaining with Beijing.

There is an image joke on the Internet:

Yangtze River Delta: We are going to sell a boat to foreigners

Shanghai: I will provide steel

Changzhou: I will provide the valve

Suzhou: I will provide the cable

Nanjing: I will provide power

Hangzhou: I will provide electronic equipment

Then everyone happily makes money together

Pearl River Delta: We are going to sell mobile phones to Africa

Shenzhen: I will provide components

Dongguan: I will provide the factory building

Guangzhou: I will provide talents

Then everyone happily makes money together

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei: We are going to make an app to make money

Beijing: I will provide talents

Beijing: I will provide the venue

Beijing: I will provide the funds

Beijing: Improve the environment around you

That is to say, the economic development of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta is more based on the division of labor, rather than using the "visible hand" of administrative instructions to arrange economic activities, more through the "invisible hand" of the market. Hands" to coordinate and cooperate to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. Especially as the modern economy becomes more and more complex, this kind of integration can radiate and drive the development of different regions.

Wei Lihua and Li Hanlin's paper "Retrospect and Prospect of China's Regional Coordinated Development Level" compared the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the Yangtze River Delta. In the four dimensions of comprehensive coordination, economic coordination, public service coordination, and open coordination, 7 related index.

The results found that, in addition to income coordination and openness coordination, the remaining GDP coordination, fiscal coordination, consumption coordination, education coordination, and medical coordination indicators were all greater than those in the Yangtze River Delta from 2011 to 2019, and their coordination levels showed a downward trend, which must be accelerated. Remove institutional barriers that restrict the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.

The trouble should end it

Judging from the international and China's regional development experience in the past 100 years, the construction of an efficient market cannot be separated from the policy design and planning guidance of the government. But first of all, the leader needs to brainstorm and think in multiple directions. In particular, it is necessary to open up the voice and listen to the voices of the people, conduct in-depth research and understand the demands of different interest groups, and make scientific decisions based on the trend.

The post-disaster reconstruction is actually the best time to rethink the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration".

How can the efficient coordination of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei be realized?

There are proposals to simply merge Tianjin and Hebei, and move the provincial capital of Hebei to Tianjin, so that Tianjin can regain Hebei as its economic hinterland, better integrate resources, and lead the development of the province; others say that it is better to merge Beijing and Tianjin and establish a 40 million-person A super city, so that Tianjin can fully connect and integrate into Beijing, truly realize "integration", and then serve as a growth engine to drive surrounding areas. All of the above ideas require scientific and meticulous sand table deduction, not a swipe of a big hand.

Such a radical administrative division adjustment plan may be difficult to be approved in the short term (at least, after Chongqing was upgraded to a municipality directly under the central government in 1997, there was no adjustment of provincial units), but it does convey a real social reality: in the country, the coordination of resources The best way is to adjust the administrative boundaries first, but the coordinated development across administrative regions is often difficult.

In contrast, in developed countries, market mechanisms play a much more important role in cross-regional and even transnational development—for example, Newark, as an important part of the New York metropolitan area, actually belongs to New Jersey administratively; the Tokyo metropolitan area Including one capital and three counties (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Chiba, and Saitama); in Europe, Basel is the center of the junction of France, Germany, and Switzerland, and the coordinated development of the border has not affected the flow of funds, talents, and goods at all. flow.

They don't even have national borders that hinder mutual win-win cooperation, so there is no reason not to break down administrative barriers in the country. The development of any central city is not isolated, and the collapse of the surrounding area may not be a good thing for it, because the supporting force brought by the independent development of society can continuously breed economic vitality.

Today, we especially need this kind of reflection: the purpose of economic integration is to realize 1+1+1>3, to give full play to the advantages of various regions, to stimulate the enthusiasm of all participants on the basis of industrial division of labor, to follow the trend, Where people want to go, the road will pass.

That is not to "whoever integrates who", but to respect the interests of all parties and achieve a win-win situation in the market in order to live up to the "big picture".