Multi-faceted interpretation of the Victory Day Red Square military parade Qiu Shiqing: Putin intends to unite the interior | Experts have something to say

On May 9, 2022, Russia held a military parade to commemorate the 77th anniversary of the victory of the Great Patriotic War. A total of 11,000 officers and soldiers, cadets, and 131 pieces of ground weapons and equipment participated in the parade. The originally planned air formation viewing event was cancelled due to weather. . Different from past experience, this military parade was held in the context of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, from the content of Russian President Vladimir Putin's speech to the flower-laying session, there are political arrangements that echo the matter. On this topic, "Hong Kong 01" interviewed Taiwan military commentator Qiu Shiqing to interpret the arrangement and scheduling of the military parade in depth, and at the same time analyze the future trend of the Russian-Ukrainian war situation.

01: The May 9 Victory Day military parade was the Red Square military parade during the first war after the Soviet Red Square military parade in 1941. The arrangement was also different from the past. First of all, the reading equipment is less and the time is shorter, and the "flower laying" link is emphasized: Putin personally went to the Alexander Garden next to the Red Square to lay a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier located here, and also to " Flowers were laid out one by one at the "Hero City" monument, and the atmosphere was filled with a strong sense of historical tragic. What do you think of this arrangement in Russia?

Qiu Shiqing: This Victory Day military parade is a military parade in which Russia is in a state of conflict. It should be reminded that because Russia has not declared war on Ukraine, it cannot be called a "war period". Judging from the scale of the participating troops still reaching more than 10,000 people and the number of equipment reviewed, it can be seen that Russia hopes to show the outside world that it still has sufficient strength to meet the challenges of future Western countries.

In addition, different from the military parades in previous years, there are many invited veterans on the viewing platform of the military parade this year, and a flower-laying session is arranged at the end of the event. It can be felt that Russia wants to highlight the sacrifice of soldiers and the contribution of defending the country in this important festival. . Such scheduling can not only show the strength of the military and boost morale, but also greatly enhance the importance of the soldiers, soothe the soldiers who are still fighting on the front line, and encourage them to follow the spirit of their predecessors and work hard to complete their tasks.

01: During the pre-rehearsal of the Victory Day military parade, the air formation part was held as usual. However, after the military parade officially started on May 9, news came from Russia that the aerial part was cancelled due to weather. I don't know what you think of this arrangement? What weather conditions should we pay attention to in the general air parade?

Qiu Shiqing: I saw from the live TV screen that the clouds in Moscow were low when the military parade was held. This will mainly have two effects. First, after the formation planes enter the clouds, due to poor visual line of sight, they are prone to the danger of air collisions; secondly, the clouds are too low, and it is difficult for the audience to clearly see the planes passing in formation from above. Effect.

In military parades in many countries, the aerial dissection is usually the subject most vulnerable to the weather, and it is a normal experience to temporarily cancel the aerial dissection for the sake of safety.

01: Continuing this topic, in this Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Russian Aerospace Forces do not seem to have played a significant role in the Ukrainian battlefield. Some analysts believe that it may be because of concerns about confusion with Ukrainian fighter jets, so Russia has not invested heavily in the aerospace force. I don't know what you think?

Qiu Shiqing: In the first stage of the special military operation, Ukraine still has a large number of man-portable air defense missiles, as well as a small number of S-300, Buk and other Ukrainian-made vehicle field air defense systems. In this situation, the performance of the Russian Aerospace Forces is indeed limited. Therefore, in addition to the competition for air superiority in the middle and high altitudes, it is often selectively dispatched for ground support needs.

However, after the start of the second phase of the operation, the Russian Aerospace Forces gradually figured out how the Ukrainian air defense system responded, and explored solutions. For example, the attack opportunity extended the range by "high-angle elevation-to-ground attack rockets" to avoid entering Within the target range of 5-6 kilometers, the risk of being raided by man-portable air defense missiles is reduced, and the number of flight sorties for ground support is increased, while the attack intensity is increased. We can observe these changes from the data released by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

In addition, according to the testimony of captured Ukrainian soldiers, what they fear most on the battlefield is not artillery or tanks, but the Russian air force. I think there is a clear gap between this and outside observations, but the perspective of the Ukrainian soldiers is a good illustration of the effectiveness of the Russian Aerospace Forces.

01: In this military parade, Putin's speech did not, as predicted by some outsiders, formally declare war on Ukraine, or announce the start of a new phase of operations. Looking at its content, it is more about the motives of this special military operation, including "NATO and Ukraine are creating threats on the Russian border", "Russian conflict with neo-Nazis is inevitable", "Russia's responsibility is to make every effort, make the horrors of global war no longer appear” and so on. What do you think of Putin's military parade speech?

Qiu Shiqing: Regarding the definition of this special military operation, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it very clear in February, and basically set the framework for the entire military operation. If war on Ukraine is declared on Victory Day, it means that Moscow's political elites are pessimistic about the prospects of the entire military operation, and the declaration of war itself is an action that has more political than military significance, unless the Ukrainian armed forces cross the border and penetrate deep into Russian territory. , Putin will have the urgency to declare war or change strategic goals, otherwise before Russia can actually control the Donbas (Donbas), I don't think Russia will need to adjust or change the military goals of the second stage.

And Putin's speech at the military parade is not so much an announcement of Russia's attitude to the outside world, but rather to unite Russia's interior and use this opportunity to let the Russian people know the West's paranoia and misunderstanding of Russia, which can intensify domestic people's perception of the Russian government. support. We can also see this from recent internal Russian polls.

Internal problems are usually the first factor of stability a country needs to ensure in the face of a possible protracted war.

01: In this military parade, the Buk missile system was also reviewed. On the distant Ukrainian battlefield, beech is one of the important sources of Russian air defense firepower, but the beech used in Ukraine also caused losses and casualties of the Russian army. In addition, Ukraine purchased the Bayraktar TB2 armed drone from Turkey (Bayraktar TB2). ), there was news of the destruction of the Russian beech. I wonder how you would evaluate the performance of Beech in the Ukrainian battlefield?

Qiu Shiqing: Buk air defense missiles had a large inventory in the Soviet era, so whether Ukraine or Russia had a large number of Buk air defense missiles, for non-stealth fighters, Buk air defense missiles are enough to handle.

It should be noted that in the early days of the conflict, the search radar of the Russian Buk missile system was not very good at identifying UAVs, so it was often impossible to detect UAVs in the air in Ukraine. After technical adjustments in the later period, Russia's Buk missiles can now also deal well with Turkey's Bayraktar TB2, which can be seen from the recent Belgorod area (Belgorod) shot down records.

No air defense system can 100% intercept foreign attacks, and the confrontation between aircraft and air defense missiles involves many factors and complex technologies, but we can still use the "number of aircraft shot down" for a simple comparison. If you compare the cost and the number of shot downs, the price/performance ratio of the Ukrainian and Russian Buk air defense missiles is not bad.

01: At present, in addition to the Azov Steel Plant, which is still under siege, Mariupol has largely fallen into the hands of the Russian army, and Kherson has begun to resume daily operations, but the fighting between the Russian and Ukrainian armies is still ongoing. continued. In your opinion, what is the future of the Ukrainian battlefield? Some analysts believe that Russia's advance in the Donbas region is too slow, and the war is about to become protracted. I wonder what you think?

Qiu Shiqing: Since the Donbas battlefield covers 200 kilometers in front and 200 kilometers in depth, we can subdivide the battlefield into Kharkiv, Izium, and North Donets. The districts of Sievierodonetsk - Donetsk, Donetsk - Zaporizhzhia and Kherson - Mykolaiv.

In the direction of Kharkiv, the Russian armed forces are gradually retreating to the border area, and it is expected to retain a buffer zone of 10-20 kilometers. This is the main area for Ukraine to counterattack, and many villages originally occupied by Russia have also been recovered.

The direction of Izyum is currently the main breakthrough direction of the Russian armed forces cluster. From here, the Russian troops spread out in a fan shape, all the way to Barvinkove (Barvinkove) to cut off the Ukrainian supply line in Sloviansk (Sloviansk); the other way from Liman ( Lyman) to surround Slavyansk, hoping to achieve a split between Slavyansk and several Ukrainian brigades in the northern Donbass. The offensive in this direction was slow but effective.

On the North Donetsk City-Donetsk line, Ukraine has built a large number of trench defense systems with a depth of 20 kilometers, which is the main reason for Russia's slow advance. Mobile warfare was ineffective here, and the two sides fought a trench battle similar to the First World War. Despite the difficulty of advancing, the Russian Armed Forces and the Wagner Group broke through the Ukrainian defenses and successfully captured Popasna, enough to threaten Ukraine's defenses in the east.

The position of Donetsk-Zaporizhia's front line has not changed much, and the position of the contact line between the two sides is similar to that of a month ago. The Donetsk militias worked hard to launch an offensive in Avdiivka and Marinka, hoping to draw the defending Ukrainian armed forces in place, preventing them from going north for reinforcements.

In the direction of Kherson-Nikolayev, the Russian armed forces are strategically defensive and do not try to take the initiative to launch an offensive against Nikolayev. Since Kherson is preparing for a referendum, Russia’s primary target in this place is is stable.

From my point of view, the losses of the Ukrainian armed forces in the Donbas battlefield are higher than that of Russia. Whether it is troop reduction or supply, it has caused huge pressure on Ukraine. Even if the West sends more weapons, it still needs fighters to operate. The time is now in Russia's favor, so I don't think this conflict will end any time soon.

Original URL: Multi-faceted Interpretation of Victory Day Red Square Military Parade Qiu Shiqing: Putin intends to unite the inside | Experts have something to say | Hong Kong 01 https://www.hk01.com/sns/article/768316