【Investment and Financial Management】 The Principles of Professional Speculation I&II-Trading is Statistics

The Principles of Professional Speculation is a book I learned after I went to JG to tell the truth. It has been published for a long time. It is a classic book in the Universal series. Traders who learn technical analysis need to read this book. It is difficult to read. I felt sleepy after reading it, but I still didn’t want to continue reading it when I fell asleep, but the knowledge he gave me, and a sentence of what Luo Fatty often said, opened my mind.

Further reading: [Stock Market Study] Is JG Introductory Training Worth It?

Big data is not available now

Big data is a concept that has only become very popular in recent years. There are even new types of occupations. Big data analysts have appeared. To put it bluntly, he is statistics, but the volume of statistics is much larger than before because of technological progress. , that's why he invented a new term for him. In the age of underdeveloped computers, statistics also existed, and analysis was more difficult. It could only be recorded manually one by one, and then countless smart brains thought about the data behind it. meaning.

In fact, today's human studies data analysis is much harder than before, because the amount of data is larger than before, and you can often get a lot of data at once. For example, you can go to the Taiwan Futures Exchange to download a Years of data, I believe you will look at him dumbfounded, do not know where to start, so to learn data analysis, the best way is to start with your own statistics.

For example, if you have the habit of jogging, record the time and length of each exercise, when you exercise, how far you run each time, usually on the day of the week, etc. After a period of time, look back and write it yourself With the data obtained, you will have a way to arrange future plans and record your own data. You will have a sense of achievement in learning data analysis. The same is true of the trading market. Even if there are many convenient data available, Trouble you, find a piece of data that you are interested in, record it manually, and analyze it manually. Slowly, you will be able to analyze the data obtained from other places.

If speculative, what is professional

Speculation, in my definition, is to earn the price difference. Buying and earning dividends is not speculation. Holding it for a lifetime is not speculation. Buying a house and collecting rent is not speculation. Only talent can be called speculation, and speculation can be done by anyone, but I have never thought about how to be professional.

Generally speaking, we can buy, sell, and research. It seems to be quite professional. The analysts on TV seem to be very professional, but they are not professional. Although there is nothing mentioned in the principle of professional speculation. It is professional, but you can see his trading method.

First of all, the market is unpredictable. I believe that those who are concerned about the market will know how terrible Trump's tweet is. Furthermore, although everything is a game of chance, how do you know how to do things with higher expectations? When you wander around the major trading societies, and more and more people understand the concept of expected value, you can see many people in the message area saying that everything is expected value. However, if you can only read those three words, Sorry you don't understand expectations.

Expectation value is the concept of statistics. Statistics is a knowledge that is gathered from an extremely large amount of data, so you ask those who will answer: "everything is expected value", what is your statistical base, probably in 100 No one could answer.

Professional speculators can tell you how the data has happened since the trading market began, the probability of rising, the number of days of rising, the probability of falling, the number of days of falling, when it happened, and what economic events happened when they happened, these Everything is familiar to me, just like if our engineers are not familiar with the drawings, it is faster for you to go home and eat yourself.

Telling these does not mean that he will make money, he can only tell you the probability of making money, which means that he may still lose money. Just like Naruto's Tsunade when he operated on Xiao Li, he only wanted the 51% chance, not to predict whether Xiao Li would be good or not, God knows. As for how to calculate these probabilities, please read the book yourself, I am only responsible for introducing him, and I still have to do my homework.

Epilogue

There are many masters in this world who have spent a lot of time fighting on the same road. We just ride their winds to the distance, but if we are unwilling to ride the wind even when the wind blows, it will be in vain after all. They have worked hard, professional speculative principles, and recommend it to you.

Blog Coming: Principles of Professional Speculation I

Blog Coming: Principles of Professional Speculation II