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The Fed is expected to officially start shrinking its balance sheet tonight, with the Fed shrinking up to $47.5 billion in the first three months as planned, including $30 billion in Treasuries and $17.5 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS).​ Three months from now, the Fed's balance sheet will shrink to $95 billion ($60 billion in Treasuries + $35 billion in MBS). For the financial market, the impact of shrinking the balance sheet is not as immediate as raising interest rates, but now it is almost certain that the shrinking balance sheet will continue to put pressure on US stocks, so there was a certain degree of correction in the US stocks last night, but Unlike two weeks ago, the confidence of investors still in the market has picked up. Even if the shrinking of the balance sheet this time is almost equivalent to an additional 25 basis points of interest rate hikes, it is difficult for the market to experience a large-scale correction as in May. Yes, because financial markets are in line with expectations​ is not bad.

Compared with shrinking the balance sheet, the Fed's subsequent interest rate hike policy is the most critical. Last night, Biden rarely summoned Fed Chairman Powell. This should be the first time after Powell's re-election. Before, Biden has always said "to maintain the independence of the Fed." So why did you suddenly summon Powell this time? My guess is that Biden’s approval rate has been declining recently. Everyone knows that inflation has seriously affected the president’s approval rate, so it is impossible to guarantee this time. Biden put pressure on Powell again. Although Biden said this time that he would lead to stable economic growth while solving high inflation, the priority of the two is obvious to Biden personally, so this is indeed a potential risk.

Russia’s central bank deputy governor Yudayeva said that the central bank still believes that the risk of using cryptocurrencies in Russia is relatively high, but has seen room for the use of cryptocurrencies in foreign trade and outside Russia, and has now changed its stance on cryptocurrency mining. . Her words are already in support of cryptocurrencies, as if the US dollar is very risky to use in Russia, but it is very useful in foreign trade transactions​.

According to Bitcoin.com, the Brazilian Development Bank has officially launched the Brazilian Blockchain Network, which aims to help other institutions in the country improve public transparency. The launch was also assisted by the Union Accounting Tribunal to call for more Many institutions have joined the project, and it is expected that the first batch of applications will be accepted in 2023. The next step for the Brazilian blockchain network is to build a working product prototype so that other third parties can focus on building applications on the network

Back to the crypto market, the crypto market remained stable today and was not affected by the U.S. stock market correction. Moreover, due to the launch of OP today, the market transactions became active again, and the gas usage of Ethereum also increased significantly, although OP The trend is not as expected, even a lot lower than the price of $3 off the market. Of course, OP’s FDV of more than 7 billion US dollars also affects the price, but it is also one of the few events that can activate the market recently. At present, the crypto market is still very similar to 2021. In the market after 519, if there is no moth in the policy behind, so that everyone can see the hope of stopping interest rate hikes in September, then the market still has a chance, and the pie will be halved again in 2024, so I expect today. At the end of the year or early 2023, the market will see at least one more bull run.

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BTC: Bitcoin’s daily rebound has only officially started, but this rebound is not a one-time rebound, but a rebound trend of advancing three and retreating one, so don’t feel that the market is over just because it falls, be sure to give plenty of time in the market. The daily resistance level is around 36000.

At the 4-hour level, after breaking through the upper edge of the shock near 30300, the rebound officially began. The real resistance above is basically consistent with the daily line, which is near 36000.

ETH: Ethereum has been greatly influenced by institutions in recent days. According to the statistics on the chain, in addition to three arrows capital depositing nearly 80,000 ETH to the exchange, alameda research also transferred 8,000 ETH to FTX yesterday. We don’t know the purpose of recharge yet. Retail investors are still worried about this, so they should be cautious in the short term. In the long term, it is no problem to hold ether spot, and the long term is still bullish.

OP: Today, the OP chain is extremely sluggish. The recharge is OK or Binance does not receive the account within a few hours, and the user claims have failed several times. The user experience as the head L2 public chain is really disappointing, of course. The price performance is also lower than expected. Previously, the OTC transaction was 3-5 dollars, but now it is only 1.5 dollars. Although the OP's FDV is not small, but now the initial circulation is only 460 million, it is actually the best price. The timing of the market, so when the price is near 1, you can actually buy the bottom, and you can also make money by eating fluctuations.

TRX: Since Brother Sun established the Bo Fed, TRON has not followed the market very much, so the performance of TRON in the past month has been much stronger than the market, and the Bo Fed has recently attracted several Gouzhuang to enter the game, including these few days. Three Arrows Capital, which has been shipping ETH, has surpassed 600 million USDD issuance. At present, TRON’s TVL has also surpassed AVAX and SOL. I have to say that Brother Sun is really strong, and TRON is still positive. It will continue to strengthen in the short term.

[Disclaimer] The above content does not constitute any investment advice. According to the relevant documents of the "Risk Warning on Preventing Illegal Fund Raising in the Name of [Virtual Currency] [Blockchain]" issued by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and other five departments in August 2018, please Look at the blockchain rationally, and don’t blindly trust others. The digital asset market is extremely volatile and risky, and you need to be highly cautious when entering the market.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, put an end to the full-cow stud, and refuse loan leverage.