Mortal raving-22.6.6-Rain God, Survivor Deviation

Holy matters:

During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday these days, the capital city was cloudy and rainy. Chatting with a friend today, the friend said that the rain in the urban area was more violent on the first day of the holiday. For a period of time, the visibility of driving was within 2 meters, and the wipers basically did not work. I live in the southern suburbs of the capital, and it's just drizzle here, so I don't feel much. Unexpectedly, the same capital city is only 15 kilometers away from the straight line, and the weather is so different. So I joked with my friends if the rain god Xiao Jingteng visited the capital again, because in the middle of last month, the rain god came once, and those days were also rainy and rainy. After that, everyone laughed.

I like Rain God's songs very much. Although I don't listen to much and I'm not a fan, I still think his several classic works are quite in line with me, and I also feel quite intimacy in my growth experience, because I prefer Qi Qin The song, and the little brother also had a very rebellious experience back then, and the rain god's past experience was similar to that of the little brother. It was music that saved them, so the so-called love house and Wu naturally added a little favor to the rain god. But what I want to talk about today is not the song of the Rain God and the growth process, but I suddenly feel that the name of the "Rain God" is quite interesting.

Friends who are familiar with Xiao Jingteng must know the origin of the name Rain God, but I suddenly thought of a point today, that is, why is the Rain God so good, it rains wherever he goes? Is it a coincidence, because first of all, people who are a little more sensible know that it is absolutely impossible for ordinary people to have the ability to call for wind and rain. If they really have this ability, wouldn’t the South-to-North Water Diversion project be omitted, and the God of Rain will directly go to the drought. After a year and a half in the region, wouldn't it be a land of fish and rice.

I checked some information on the Internet and said why the rain god is so effective, it rains everywhere. In fact, because there are many times, the days and destinations of the rain gods often coincide with the local rainy season, and the probability of rain during that time is very high. And according to statistics, the probability of rain in the place where the rain god goes is about 70%. It's just that when the media and brokerage companies created the IP for Rain God, they deliberately exaggerated the magic of raining when he appeared, but the days without rain were ignored intentionally or unintentionally, and then through the media's rendering, gradually Strengthen people's impression of the rain god.

In fact, this is a bit similar to a common logical fallacy-survivorship bias. Most of the time, people can only see the results produced by some kind of screening, without realizing the screening process, so they ignore being screened out. key information, which creates survivorship bias. The common stories of survivorship deviation have been heard by everyone. In fact, there are quite a few cases of survivorship deviation in life. We need to keep our eyes open and not be easily fooled. For example, you will hear cases like this:

 1. A company adopts a new marketing plan that increases sales by 100%
(So how many companies have tried the same strategy and failed?)
2. This temple is very efficacious. Many people's requests for money and affairs have finally come true! 
(But how many people have worshipped but not fulfilled?)
3. Xiao Zhang ate some kind of weight loss product and lost 10 kilograms all at once!
(And what percentage of people have no effect after eating it?)
4. Motivational books often say that as long as you are hardworking and creative, you can succeed (but there are also a bunch of cases of failures with the same characteristics, they are unknown and undetected by us)

To avoid the fallacy of survivorship bias, you can pay attention to the following three aspects: 1. Pay attention to the "silent" data, break the limitation of thinking, don't just focus on the explicit data, but pay attention to the hidden data behind; 2. Appropriate learning Some basic mathematics/statistics knowledge and concepts, pay more attention to the probability of different samples; 3. Improve cognitive level, grasp more key information, and try to understand the information from multiple angles, so as not to be blinded by biased data eyes.

Basically do these three points, and the general fallacy of survivorship bias should be avoided as much as possible.

mutual encouragement~

Matt City lives forever!