Insights into the French election · Next | Macron and Le Pen's final confrontation in the EU may have three splits

On April 10, 2022, the French presidential election will take place. In the first round of voting, incumbent President Emmanuel Macron narrowly defeated far-right candidate Marine Le Pen by 4%. The two will face off again in the second round of elections on the 24th. On April 15, the Taipei Forum Foundation invited Su Hongda, Dean of the Academy of Social Sciences, National Taiwan University, Monet Chair Professor of Political Science, and Sa Zhiyuan, former Taiwanese Deputy Representative to France and Belgium, to discuss "French elections, European He delivered a speech on the topic of "Security, the Future of the European Union", discussing the future political situation in France and the prospect of European security. The host of the event was Yang Yongming, CEO of the Taipei Forum Foundation. This is the second in a series of reports (two in total).

Series 1: Insights into the French Election Part 1 | Can the killing of Macron by the extreme left and the extreme right make France great again

The changing political landscape of France

Analysing the polls on the eve of the three French presidential elections in 2012, 2017 and 2022, Sazhiyuan pointed out that the support of the traditional left has dropped from 31% in 2012 to 8% in 2022; the traditional right has dropped from 27% to 27%. 12%. Instead, the centrist and the far-right have won 30% and 31% of the support respectively in this election, which shows that the landscape of French political parties has changed dramatically.

Looking back on the Fourth Republic of France, Sacchiyuan said that the reason why this system has lost popular support is because people think that in the multi-party Congress, small parties always only care about their own interests and political distribution of spoils, rather than thinking for the country, so they will There is the development of Charles de Gaulle's constitutional amendment to end the Fourth Republic and create the Fifth.

Sazhiyuan added that in fact, de Gaulle had no confidence in the prime minister system, believing that this would lead to chaos in France, but when de Gaulle returned to China after World War II, there was no room for him in French politics, so he had no choice but to settle in 1946. Retired, until the outbreak of the Algerian War of Independence in 1958, France sent elites to suppress it, and de Gaulle did not come out again. The process of suppressing Algeria was very tragic. French society has avoided talking about this past for many years. Macron did not officially return some of the remains of the Algerian rebels executed by France until 2021, out of consideration for repairing relations between the two countries.

With reference to the changes from the Fourth Republic to the Fifth Republic, Sazhiyuan pointed out that France attaches great importance to political stability. In the 1980s and 1990s, France had several co-governances, that is, the president and the prime minister belonged to different political parties, which led to political friction. In order to avoid a repeat of this phenomenon, France amended its constitution in 2002, changing the presidential term from seven years to five years, and set the parliamentary election after the presidential election, hoping to ensure that the president and the prime minister come from the same spectrum as possible. However, the results of this election exposed the ideological hollowing out of the left and the right, and also reflected the people's disappointment with Macron's rule.

Sazhiyuan said that the "Yellow vests protests" broke out a year after Macron came to power. The people were mainly dissatisfied with the rise in oil prices, but Macron's response was very tough, such as delegating the power to judge the legitimacy of the demonstrations. To the police chief, not the court; and anyone arrested for rioting during a demonstration will have a lifetime record and must be more than 1,000 meters away from the demonstration site. The people's dissatisfaction with life so far and resentment against Macron's strong repressive decision-making have been combined in this election.

Satchiyuan also mentioned that although Le Pen's current stance on NATO is very tough, if he really has a chance to be elected, such a stance may not be able to continue to govern, but will be adjusted according to political reality. Although Macron's attack on Le Pen may endanger the French constitution, polls also show that purchasing power is the most concerned about by the French people, and Macron still has to face this test.

The second round of voting will be held on the 24th, which is the ultimate showdown between Macron and Le Pen. Sazhiyuan judged that Macron has a higher probability of winning in the second round of elections. After all, Le Pen's far-right identity is still criticized, especially her hostile attitude towards immigrants, but Macron may only "closely win".

Where is European security heading?

As for the security development of Europe, Saatchiyuan first shared two concepts. One was his past experience of studying in Paris as an example. At that time, the professor threw the topic in the class: What is France's foreign policy? Many students talked eloquently, from Africa to the Americas, but the professor finally gave the answer: "None, France's foreign policy, like the stone statues on the piers of the Seine, is used to measure the water depth and warn of floods." Meaning. That is, the core of France's foreign policy is to perceive where conflicts and crises are about to break out, but it may not be able to prevent crises from happening.

Second, Europe is more accustomed to the rise of powers than the United States. Sazhiyuan said that before the rise of Britain, France and Germany, Denmark and Portugal were once the dominant powers, but now they are only two small countries in the north and south of Europe; just as before the establishment of the United States and the US dollar hegemony, Europe was also a major player in world politics. . After going through this history of the rise and fall of powers, Sazhiyuan believes that Europe does not feel as strongly as the United States about the rejection and fear of China's rise.

Regarding the European security under the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Sazhiyuan put forward several predictions. First, Russia is now determined to take over eastern and southern Ukraine, so that the eastern part of Ukraine can be substantially connected to Crimea, and then see what to do next; second, if the war continues, the EU will inevitably produce more A tendency to rely on NATO does not necessarily unite Europe.

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Sa Zhiyuan said that the current media reports in Taiwan portray Russia as an aggressor, but they do not mention the continuous eastward expansion of NATO since the 1990s, and the background explanation is incomplete; at the same time, the West has also launched a one-sided campaign. The information offensive used many misplaced and time-honored pictures as the scene of this war. The intention was to mobilize the people's emotions, whether it was an atmosphere of solidarity or being threatened. And this kind of mobilization has also fermented among European political figures, forming a certain political correctness. Germany, for example, not only voluntarily destroyed the "North Stream II", but also many people began to attack former Prime Minister Angela Merkel; while the United States clearly despises the EU, but at this moment, many EU politicians are showing signs of pro-US, which is also affected by political correctness.

But Sachyuan pointed out that this kind of political correctness has not spread across Europe. Western Europe may be sloppy, but in the camp of Eastern European countries, there are anti-Russian Poland and relatively pro-Russian Hungary, which exposes the cracks in the EU. In addition, with the establishment and development of the European Union, most European countries have abolished the military service system, although Belgium, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom established the "Western European Union" (Western European Union, WEU) with the nature of military defense in 1948. ), but this trend has still not overwhelmed the spirit of the EU, which is to transfer some sovereignty and avoid the resumption of the European war. However, after the outbreak of the conflict, the military nerves of various countries have been revived.

Sazhiyuan analyzed that the only countries with military projection capabilities in Europe are the United Kingdom and France, and they still rely on NATO for transportation and intelligence collection. But Sazhiyuan also pointed out that under the leadership of Macron, the EU will develop a "Strategic Compass", specifically to reassess the world strategic situation and create a rapid strike force of about 5,000 to 6,000 people. in response to unexpected security incidents.

Sazhiyuan concluded that the European Union is an international organization established in Europe after World War II and hopes to revive Europe. Countries seek mutual trust and mutual dependence, and while maintaining their sovereignty, they agree to transfer part of their powers to EU institutions. Under the new crown epidemic, the EU has coordinated financing and provided financial assistance to member states, with a total amount of 750 billion euros, which can be described as a powerful response to economic difficulties. This move, combined with the above-mentioned "strategic compass" plan, shows that the EU still has considerable vitality. Although it may rely on NATO under major military threats, it may also create a new independent route, which is worth observing in the future.

The three divisions of Europe

Yang Yongming, executive director of the Taipei Forum Foundation, believes that the second phase of the French presidential election will be very fierce. It pointed out that Macron has publicly criticized U.S. President Joe Biden's remarks accusing Russia of genocide, and Le Pen also held a press conference to emphasize that if he is elected, he will not withdraw from NATO, but will return to withdrawing from military unity before 2009. the state of the mechanism. From these two events, it is clear that both sides think they have a chance to win, but there is also a certain amount of pressure to lose.

Yang Yongming said that although various circles assess that Macron has a high probability of winning, the burden he bears after taking office will also become a shroud for him in this election. First of all, the two-year-old Yellow Vest Movement detonated more than 200 demonstrations and protests, resulting in 11 deaths and more than 2,500 injuries. The resentment of these protesters and the working class against the Macron government is still there. Therefore, although the far-right Le Pen and Macron entered the second round after the first round of voting, it is still uncertain whether the votes of the left will be transferred to Macron.

Secondly, Yang Yongming said that the Russian-Ukrainian war has led to inflation in France and soaring oil prices, and the people's livelihood economy has been severely impacted. At the same time, Macron's "shuttle diplomacy" between Russia and Ukraine also made people feel indifferent, and his reputation was damaged. Yang Yongming pointed out that judging from the polls before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war in February, Macron and Le Pen still had a 15% gap, but only 5% remained before the election, and the gap between the two had narrowed significantly.

Yang Yongming further analyzed that three divisions may occur in the future of the EU:

First, the split between the EU and NATO. Yang Yongming mentioned that NATO is becoming more and more like the "US Treaty". Under the leadership of the United States, NATO not only expanded eastward, but also expanded northward. However, the expansion of NATO may not be in the interests of Europe, and it may lead to the separation of the EU and NATO. It believes that in the future, whether Macron or Le Pen is elected, France will not choose to follow the United States, and France will push the EU to go its own way.

Second, the split between Eastern and Western Europe. Yang Yongming pointed out that Russia's invasion of Ukraine had the effect of "killing lips and teeth" on Eastern European countries such as Poland, so he strongly supported Ukraine. But for Central and Western European countries such as Germany and France, it is more in line with their national interests to maintain a certain degree of coexistence with Russia. The gap in the value of national security may lead to the division of Eastern and Western Europe.

Third, if Le Pen is elected, Germany and France may be divided. Yang Yongming believes that if the far-right Le Pen is elected, due to the ideological gap, the trust relationship established between the two countries in the era of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel may no longer exist.

Yang Yongming emphasized that geopolitical and historical factors are the dominant forces in international relations. In France, whether Macron or Le Pen is elected in the future, these two factors cannot be avoided when dealing with French diplomacy, and both of them will also affect the development of the EU. He pointed out that after Merkel's withdrawal from the European political stage, if Macron is re-elected, he will pay more attention to the interaction with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and strive to make his personal diplomatic role and mediation ability, while being influenced by Washington's and Russian President Vladimir Putin. attention from both sides of Moscow.

In contrast, if Le Pen is elected, she may also have the ability to deal with Russia's threat to Europe based on her old friendship with Putin. Yang Yongming believes that this French presidential election will not only allow people to observe the changes in public opinion and political ideology in France, but also allow people to observe the development of the European situation and the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on Europe. The results of the French presidential election on the 24th will be an important milestone for France and even Europe.

The original text was published on 2022/4/20 " Multidimensional News "