If there is no super thunderstorm in this revision, the bottom is probably not far away

Since the end of last year, major markets have experienced a major correction, and this wave of major corrections is due to the fact that with the end of the epidemic, consumers have not fallen into consumption due to the previous QE in major European and American markets and major consuming countries. Tightening, consumer confidence continues, and the unblocking under inertia has greatly promoted the rise of the demand side. In contrast, the production-side countries are mainly in the Asian region. The people here are a few beats slower than the European and American countries to unblock. Therefore, the production growth rate of raw materials and other resources cannot keep up with the growth of the demand side. Therefore, raw materials have risen, but to make matters worse, with the occurrence of regional conflicts in Russia and Ukraine, oil prices have risen to a very high level in the fermentation of events. In order to curb the massive credit expansion that still occurred during the previous QE and recovery period, the Fed changed the direction of its decision from dove to eagle, and shrinking the balance sheet and raising interest rates became the main tone. It is precisely here that the pricing of risky assets ushered in a major revision.

Against this backdrop, will the correction turn into a long-term bear market or a cold winter? Probably not, and the slowdown in Asia's unwinding of lockdowns, resulting in productivity growth not keeping up with consumption, cannot last forever, even if the world's factories China is still a strong blockade, but capital will find alternatives to find labor from countries such as Vietnam and Cambodia. Therefore, the high prices of raw materials and light industrial products are not always enough to be a long-term concern. What about the Russia-Ukraine conflict? In fact, according to the data of various oil-producing countries, although Russia ranks among the best in crude oil export data, it is not the only one. It can be seen that the oil price surge is the result of the joint production reduction of large oil-producing countries, but even so The influence of oil prices on inflation may gradually decrease in the next period of time. 1. The impact of production cuts on rising oil prices will gradually become passivated, because the opening and closing of oil wells require costs, and most of the time it is mainly to control the rate of production. Therefore, At most, no new oil wells will be opened, but the existing oil wells will continue to be exploited. The inertia problem of oil production can be seen in the negative oil price problem in 2020. Even if there are no buyers for the time being, crude oil will continue to open and release oil tanks. . Another reason why crude oil production cannot be cut indefinitely is that after the price increase caused by the production reduction reaches a certain level, buyers will reduce their purchasing needs to find other alternative energy sources or materials, and will not allow oil-producing countries to ask for anything. It is confirmed from the resolutions and news reports that many countries are preparing to restart nuclear power generation, or actively looking for other energy alternatives. The regional conflict is not a big problem. There have been many years of war in the Middle East, but the supply of crude oil has always been blocked in the short term and will not evolve into a long-term problem. In recent years, driven by capital, the technologies of green energy and trams have been updated very quickly. Perhaps this crude oil surge will become the last spiritual pressure of crude oil, and it will slowly withdraw from the stage like whale oil in the past (it will be a long-term the process of). On the other hand, the re-pricing of risky assets due to rising interest rates may also usher in passivation. The interest rate doubles from 1-2, but only rises by 50% from 2-3. It can also be seen from various pricing models. The sensitivity is extremely high when the interest rate is low, but the sensitivity is reduced when the interest rate is high.

In summary, the technically negative factors in all aspects may be passivated for various reasons, from a new big thunderstorm, which will trigger a chain credit crunch, otherwise, the remaining downside will be limited. On the other hand, although it is good news that the bad news may be about to come out, the reasons for the bullish reasons are not clear. The global economy is still in a relatively unstable period, so the purchase of any asset may be invested in batches and reach a sufficient level. scattered, so as not to be struck by a real thunderstorm.

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