Investment diary2021.02.27

It’s been a long time since the last post. During this period, I borrowed a lot of books from the library. While reading, I also planned the investment strategy in my mind. Today, I am still not good at technical judgment. , Many linear trends are still in the learning process, after all, the linear needs a little more experience and intuition, of course, for the novice I need to hone more.

However, in contrast, I can analyze the fundamentals more clearly. With the company's monthly revenue, changes in EPS, dividends over the years, and the potential growth of the business , these substantial data changes are even more able to A clearer grasp of the future upside of the company's stocks, coupled with a little bit of chip change and rough line analysis, I hope that the personal opinions I have left in the investment diary can help you communicate more about stocks and ideas.

Straight to the point, the following are the targets of Taiwan stocks I am currently observing, which are purely personal opinions.

Changhua*

Changhua's main business is the sale of semiconductor packaging materials, the sale and installation of packaging machinery and equipment, and the provision of packaging technology services.

From the EPS, it can be calculated that the cumulative EPS before Q3 is 1.235 (because the stock has not been split before Q2, so it needs to be divided by 10)

It can be seen that the revenue in the fourth quarter has increased significantly compared with the profit in the third quarter. The cumulative EPS in 2020 is expected to be 1.6 to 1.8, so a rough estimate of the reasonable price is between 29 and 32.

So looking back at some time ago, the stock price was indeed consolidating back and forth between 29 and 32, but because of the excellent revenue growth, coupled with the bullish trend in the previous days of the broader market, coupled with the large amount of foreign investment on February 17. The stock price goes up by the daily limit, which starts an upward trend, and there is a slight correction during the period.

Although a large amount of foreign capital sold and cashed out between 2/18 and 2/24, the stock price did not fall back because of this. Instead, it remained at around 41. After 2/25, foreign capital turned to slightly over-buying. We can look forward to the follow-up. the direction of foreign investment

It is worth noting that the recent market index dropped by 498 points, making up for the previous gap, and the follow-up trend is not clear enough. Maybe Changhua will have a period of consolidation. We need to observe the future development. If there is a fall, you can An appropriate amount of accumulated shares, because in the long run, the supply of semiconductor packaging is in short supply, and at least there is still a long market worth looking forward to.

At present, I personally hold two at a cost of 32, with a profit of about 30%, and I do not plan to take profits, unless there is an obvious reversal in the line shape.

The above is purely my personal opinion. You are welcome to leave a message for discussion, or put forward different opinions so that I can learn more.