New China-US-Russia Bureau: Taiwan Strait is "linking" with Ukraine

The recent interaction between China and Russia has aroused high anxiety in Europe and the United States.

The first was the Kazakh riots that broke out in early January. The Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO, CSTO for short) sent peacekeeping troops into Kazakhstan on January 8 to quell the unrest, and the situation quickly subsided; China, which adheres to the principle of "internal affairs", also expressed its support for the Kazakh government on January 7. Not only did Chinese President Xi Jinping send an oral letter to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, but Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin also confirmed the statement on the same day. The tone of the matter was to call the unrest in Kazakhstan an "act of violence and terror" and expressed support for the authorities' "efforts to calm the situation."

Such a development has led to two extreme evaluations in the West. One is to insinuate that China and Russia instigated a "Kazakhstan coup" with media comments without any evidence. The country is "cracked by Kazakhstan". The former reflects the West's fear of Sino-Russian cooperation, while the latter exposes its anxiety to find the "discomfort factor" between China and Russia.

On February 4, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited China and attended the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics. It was the first face-to-face meeting between Chinese and Russian leaders after the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020. After the meeting, the two sides issued the "Joint Statement of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation on International Relations and Global Sustainable Development in the New Era", marking a new level of Sino-Russian relations.

On regional security issues, the Russian side recognizes that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory and opposes any form of "Taiwan independence"; China also opposes the continued expansion of NATO, and opposes external forces undermining the security and stability of the two countries' common peripheral areas, and opposes "color" revolution". The two sides even stated in the statement, "The new relationship between China and Russia goes beyond the model of military and political alliance during the Cold War. There is no limit to the friendship between the two countries, and there is no restricted area for cooperation."

Such a move has stirred up waves in the West. On February 7, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said in an interview, "We believe that China will eventually bear part of the cost of Russia's invasion of Ukraine." NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg ) also alleged on the same day that "the joint statement issued by China and Russia against the continued expansion of NATO is an attempt to deprive sovereign countries of their right to make their own choices." "Linkage" effect.

Although China and Russia also pointed out in the statement that "strengthening strategic cooperation is not aimed at third countries", it is obviously difficult to stop the waves of external public opinion, and the rebound in the West is particularly severe.

Deep fear of a Sino-Russian alliance

Looking back on the past, Sino-Russian interaction has been a strategic hotspot that has been discussed incessantly in Western academic circles. However, various views that advocate mutual games and occupy the "mainstream" do not necessarily reflect the reality, let alone accurately predict future development. The prediction of Sino-Russian relations by American think tanks is a typical case.

From the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 to Putin's third presidential term in 2012, the mainstream view of Sino-Russian relations in American think tanks has been largely inseparable from the word "formal marriage", that is, Sino-Russian interaction is an expedient and different dream. Scholars from American think tanks generally believe that although China and Russia cooperate in various fields in order to offset the strategic pressure of the United States, it is doomed to be difficult to achieve a partnership of souls. , the population problem of the Russian Far East, etc.

The American think tank further judged that with the rise of China, the above-mentioned frictions will inevitably intensify. Although China and Russia can stand together temporarily, they will inevitably part ways in the future. The small boat of friendship cannot bear the waves of differences in interests. It is difficult to shake the international order built by the United States, and it is also vulnerable to changes in the situation. Even if it can really join hands and unite, the United States still has an overwhelming national strength. Therefore, "China and Russia should not be afraid of friendship."

However, this recognition led to a series of subsequent strategic mistakes. The first was NATO's wanton eastward expansion, which triggered a strong backlash from Russia and created the Crimea crisis in 2014. After the crisis, the United States launched sanctions against Russia, killing the faint hope of recovery for the United States and Russia. Although there were voices reminding "beware of a Sino-Russian alliance" at this time, the White House turned a deaf ear, insisted on doing its own thing, and was immersed in the "mainstream analysis" of the old-fashioned think tank. There is more than enough strength.” It was not until the two sides signed a 30-year natural gas supply agreement in the same year, and China’s military and economic strength also leaped, that the White House was shocked by the reality of the blow.

Since then, the description of Sino-Russian relations by American think tanks has changed dramatically, from "formal marriage" of two weak people to "revisionism of international relations", and even to the level of "military alliance" in the Cold War. Although China and Russia have never shown a tendency of joint aggression, they have been dubbed the "axis of authoritarianism" by many Western scholars, saying that they will continue to "attack the United States" in every corner of the world, from the Iran nuclear deal, the Syrian battlefield to the Korean peninsula, The "hegemonic ambitions" of China and Russia are flaming between the lines of various analyses, like a wound that oozes blood repeatedly. It not only reminds the United States of its unbearable carelessness, but also mocks its unwillingness to give up.

Such a strong disgust, but a state of mind that must be paid attention to, is like a paranoid patient whose pursuit cannot be achieved without love giving rise to hate. It must be slandered as well as destroyed. In the face of the continuous approach of China and Russia, many Western scholars have searched for dry intestines, poor people, and falling yellow springs, just to find out the signs and signs of the Sino-Russian breakup, but they are more of figuring out and fabricating; but at the same time, all kinds of "China-Russia" The discussion of "conspiracy" emerges one after another, as if both countries are suffering from schizophrenia. One second, they are each having their own ghosts, and the next second they are inseparable. The report after the Kazakh riot is a typical case: China and Russia can jointly instigate "Kazakhstan". Stan coup", and had to break with it.

In the final analysis, such an argument is contradictory, and after all, the Western world, led by beauty, is too panicked. But it is precisely because of this that China and Russia have been able to form a "non-aligned alliance" and use the outside world's "idealistic" emotional cognition to achieve "materialistic" strategic goals.

Soldier without a fight

First of all, for China, it does not seek to fight the United States to the death, but to open up the current strategic joints: the tightening technology war, the increasingly boiling atmosphere in the Taiwan Strait. If it is close to Russia, it will be able to support the above-mentioned purposes in three aspects. The first is to ensure the supply of oil and gas, and to provide stable energy for the development of science and industry and national construction; the second is to prevent Russia from falling to the United States, The sneak attack from the side has caused Beijing to be attacked by the enemy; the third is to deal with the Taiwan issue, and use the atmosphere of "China-Russia alliance" to form a strategic deterrent. If there is a need for military reunification, it will be able to avoid US military intervention to the greatest extent and reduce the cost of action.

For Russia, the "dual core" is the current diplomatic layout. First, Moscow will cooperate with Germany and other "old Europe" on the issue of Nord Stream 2, offset the strategic squeeze of the United States in the Baltic Sea, Eastern Europe and other places, and seek a way out for the country in the post-Soviet era; To explore new modes of interaction with China, such as opening into Central Asia with the “Belt and Road” initiative, it is necessary for China and Russia to confirm that mutual trust is sufficient to support mutual coexistence. Taking this riot in Kazakhstan as an example, Kazakhstan, as a common backstop and strategic channel between China and Russia, has received stability support from both countries. A good relationship with China can also induce strategic panic in the West and increase Russia's room for asking prices. Therefore, Moscow intends to use the "Eastern Core" to create the current situation and ensure the smooth operation of the "Western Core".

In short, China and Russia are getting closer and closer under the "unintentional intervention" of the United States, and they are coordinating and cooperating in various fields, but it is by no means a military alliance in the Cold War era. As far as cooperation is concerned, exchanges between the two sides have substantial strategic significance, but they still maintain a certain degree of policy independence. Just as Russia respects the existence of the "Belt and Road" in Central Asia, and Beijing also does not interfere in the military cooperation between Russia and India, China and Russia Just like the yin and yang of Tai Chi, they are close to each other without dipping into each other, showing the greatest mutual trust with the least interference, and achieving the greatest benefit with the least cost.

After the outbreak of the Crimea crisis in 2014, the West began to predict that "China and Russia will go to war in Eurasia", and reminders such as "Ukraine will be linked with the situation in the Taiwan Strait" are flying all over the sky, as if the third world war. about to explode. In all fairness, the “dilemma” between the Taiwan Strait and Ukrainian East is more rooted in the mediocrity of the U.S., and if it wasn’t for Washington’s continued hype about Ukraine’s entry into NATO, Ukrainian East might still be under the jurisdiction of the Kyiv authorities, and Russia would not have to declare its borders; if it wasn’t for the U.S. request The DPP government is playing the Taiwan card together, stimulating the CCP and trampling on mutual trust across the strait. Beijing may also be willing to vaguely deal with the Taiwan issue, so as not to send military aircraft to abolish the central line of the strait in one fell swoop. But the United States does not reflect in this way, but continues to drill into a dead end, thus playing in the favor of Beijing and Moscow.

For China, the reunification of Taiwan has been put on the process, and in Russia's eyes, preventing Ukraine from joining NATO is a matter of national security. Both China and Russia have strategic requirements to face the United States, but it does not mean that both sides must use joint military actions to threaten the United States. First, both countries now have development needs that trump military expansion; second, the United States is because of the imagined "China-Russia alliance. "Worrying about gains and losses, and trapping in panic, created an operational space for Beijing and Moscow to "subjugate the enemy without fighting."

In other words, both China and Russia want to use the atmosphere of "Taiwan Strait will be linked with Ukraine" to reduce the possibility of US military intervention in Europe and Asia. After all, given the current strength of the United States, it is a fantasy to fight with China and Russia at the same time. The more it manipulates this issue and withdraws from the China-Russia threat theory, the more it becomes self-inflicted and contributes to the strategic layout of China and Russia. From this perspective, the Taiwan Strait is indeed "linked" with Ukraine, but China and Russia see it differently from the United States. The former is an attempt to shape the atmosphere consciously and reduce the cost of action, while the latter is deeply immersed in the phobia of Sino-Russian alliance. As a result, it was used by Beijing and Moscow.

Thought does not seem to play an important role in international relations, but it is the foundation of all actions. If used properly, the most soft thing can also ride the strongest in the world.

The original text was published on 2022/2/13 " Multidimensional News "