The more "independent" the less independent Taiwan is, it is difficult to become a "normal country"

For Taiwan today, the word "independence" is like a collective stimulant, which not only benefits many politicians, but also makes countless people follow suit.

This trend originated from the long-term separation of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, and was prompted by historical processes such as the Cold War and democratization. In addition, political struggles are in the ascendant. Today, it has become an irreversible political correctness within Taiwan. When all kinds of public opinion talk about "independence", it is like a knight vowing to pursue the Holy Grail. Although the road is long and difficult, it is always on the road of collective search, and it can even oppress other minorities for this purpose, turning the ancient legend into a powerful crusade Expedition.

From the emergence of non-Party movements in 1970, Lee Teng-hui's proposal of "Republic of China in Taiwan" in 1995, "Two Nations Theory" in 1999, political party rotation in 2000, Taiwan's referendum on membership in the United Nations in 2008, the Sunflower Student Movement in 2014, and the anti-Japanese movement in 2015. Curriculum students occupy the Ministry of Education, Tsai Ing-wen proposed "Taiwan of the Republic of China" in 2019, and amended passports by 2020. Taiwan is getting further and further away, but it is also getting more and more dangerous. The risk of destruction is getting deeper and deeper; it seems to be gradually becoming a "normal country", but in fact it is constantly wandering in the illusion of the subject's nothingness.

"Independence" should be spectrum rather than presence

In terms of real development, since 1949, under the protection of the Republic of China system, Taiwan has maintained an autonomous state that is not under the control of the mainland. The government not only implements internal governance, but also manages formal and informal external relations, and participates in international organizations and competitions. . In terms of function, Taiwan is no different from other countries.

But even so, Taiwanese society is still obsessed with the status of "independence" floating in the void. The reason, apart from political factors such as power struggles, is that the most fundamental reason is that after years of electoral mobilization, the seeds of obsession with "becoming a normal country" have been planted in the hearts of the masses. This sentiment has been watered by political events one after another, and now it has turned into populist passion, which has broken through the ground, spread everywhere, and made politicians have to follow suit.

But the essence of the so-called "independence to become a normal country" argument is a surreal fantasy wrapped in revolutionary blood. In the field of logic, the extreme of autonomy is indeed independence, a symbol of not being manipulated by the outside world, and the artistic conception of a "normal country" in Taiwan's imagination; however, in the reality of international politics, even if the empire collapses, it is now a nation-state In the 1980s, the world order was still operating in the previous mode, and the domination of small countries by big countries was still the same, but the form and name were different. The United States did the same to the Marshall Islands, and Saudi Arabia did the same to Bahrain. The delicate relationship between the Soviet Union and Finland for many years has been called the "Finnishization phenomenon" by later generations.

Since human beings developed the state structure, mutual oppression and submission between countries or regimes has been the historical norm, but the degree varies, and the key lies in the subjective relationship cognition of the two parties and the comparison of objective strength. In other words, a small country does not have the status of "independence" to develop independence; rather, it first has political, economic, and military independence before it can expand the substantive connotation of the name "independence".

In addition, if you want to define a country's "normality" by "whether it is at the mercy of the outside world", except for the ancient great empires such as Rome and the United States at the end of the Cold War, which barely meet the description of a "very normal country", all other countries can be described as "normal". Is abnormal heterogeneous. Even today's China and the United States, there is no lack of time to compromise with reality.

However, in the social imagination of Taiwan, the so-called "normal country" can only be a weird black and white existence. There are only two options of normal and abnormal, and there is no gray-scale spectrum in the transition zone. Understanding is also based on a similar thinking framework, that is, "independence" is not a matter of degree, but a confrontation between existence and non-existence.

The balance tilted and the gun went off

Over time, Taiwan has gradually split into two groups of people who were born around "independence" in such self-limitation. One is that those who believe in "independence and omnipotence" tend to attribute all contemporary Taiwan's plight to "incomplete sovereignty". Those who know that "independence" and "normal country" are both vain names, although they understand that the struggle between the ruling and opposition parties are all just for fun, they have repeatedly hyped up the aforementioned issues in order to obtain votes and benefits from the first group of people.

Taking elections as an example, "independence" was originally a political agenda concocted by forces outside the party in the early years to gain legitimacy in the struggle. Although most of the candidates evade the most important content such as "what is independence" and "how to be independent", passionate slogans are often the easiest to turn into votes, which eventually lead to collective hysteria. Wild public opinion first hollows out policies, and then turns around to coerce politicians; and the latter can only keep approaching the anti-China finish line in order to win the election. As a result, Taiwan has fallen into a vicious circle of polarized politics, and it is gradually heading towards the abyss of destruction, just like in 1994 Years of Chechnya.

Although the histories of Taiwan and Chechnya are not exactly the same, they can be said to be logically similar in terms of the operation of the "independence" issue. From the perspective of the reality of the Chechens, Tatars and other ethnic minorities in Russia, it is difficult to realize the dream of establishing a country and gaining world recognition. Therefore, for them, the slogan of "independence" has two real benefits. One is to help minorities National rulers draw support from the people to consolidate their regime; second, they can use this to negotiate with the Russian central government in exchange for maximum autonomy, which can be called an important balance of coordination and autonomy.

In 1992, when Russia experienced the panic of the collapse of the Soviet Union, it withdrew its administrative agencies and troops from Chechnya, which meant that it acquiesced in de facto independence. However, since 1993, the clan (Teip) political disputes within Chechnya have intensified. President Dzhokhar Dudayev (Dzhokhar Dudayev) finally turned to hype the issue of "independence" after experiencing multiple aborted coups in order to consolidate the interests of the ruling coalition. Unite and boost morale. The "independence" card, which originally played a role in the balance, has also begun to tilt towards the side of "drawing support" endlessly. The "negotiation" function has gradually declined, and eventually it has become a new fuse for conflicts.

In 1994, under the frenzy of independence provoked by Dudayev, the Chechen armed forces began to spread to the surrounding areas. Russia finally sent troops here in December of that year. The first Chechen war broke out here, and the second Chechen war broke out in 1999. It was not until 2009 that the riots were officially declared over by the Russian government. Chechnya has now returned to the territory of Russia, but the scars of the war have not yet recovered.

The Finnishization of the United States that set itself on fire

As far as Taiwan is concerned, it is similar to Chechnya in that "independence hype" is not only a sharp weapon to consolidate internal unity, but also easily induces the military intervention of the mainland, resulting in the collapse of the regime; Taiwan, on the other hand, is extremely dependent on the United States, fantasizing about the support of the hegemony on the other side of the Pacific all day long. As a result, it is only getting farther and farther away from a "normal country" and bringing the risk of destruction closer and closer.

In Taiwan's independent fairy tales, China is often portrayed as a behemoth devouring sovereignty. Even if it expresses goodwill, it will be recognized by Taiwan's mainstream public opinion as a harbinger of "Finnishization". In all fairness, Taiwan is not without the phenomenon of Finlandization, but the target is definitely not China, but the United States, which is thousands of miles away.

After experiencing the baptism of the Cold War, although Taiwan's political elites have different attitudes towards China, they are equally humble in their attitude towards the United States; looking at the intellectual circles, even if there are anti-Americans, they are still a marginal minority. In the face of China's concessions, Taiwan shouted "independence"; but in the face of American clenbuterol, Taiwan seemed to have forgotten its original intention to be a "normal country".

To put it bluntly, Taiwan seems to be obsessed with the issue of "independence", but the deepest thought in the subconscious is actually "not to be Chinese", so it would rather abandon itself as the main body and bow to the United States in exchange for anti-China confidence. In the end, "independence" is only used for hype on the island, but internationally it is a telegraph machine showing goodwill to the United States. The word looks bright and sharp, but it is empty inside.

In the past, when Sino-US relations were relatively relaxed, there was still room for Taiwan’s Finnishization of the US so as not to lead to the collapse of the regime; however, now that the atmosphere of a “new cold war” has emerged, US Under Secretary of State Keith Krach visited Taiwan on September 18. On the same day, the People's Liberation Army entered Taiwan's air defense identification zone with 18 military aircraft carrying bombs, and once approached Taiwan's airspace. This was the biggest move after the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis.

As far as China is concerned, it fears that Taiwan will become the United States' anti-China pawn; the United States intends to consume China, and has always wanted to use Taiwan as a bait to anger China. Under the turmoil, if Taiwan still insists on hyping up the issue of independence and continues to Finlandize the United States, it may repeat the self-defeating tragedy of Chechnya.

The original text was published on 2020/9/20 " Duowei News "