The future reshuffle of Hong Kong's political system

A few days ago, the National People's Congress of the Communist Party of China passed the "Draft for Improving Hong Kong's Election System", which significantly revised the current election system in Hong Kong, including the election of the chief executive and members of the Legislative Council, to ensure that all elections in Hong Kong can be completely controlled by the CCP regime with the highest security factor. .

A higher level of "moving the dragon gate"
This time, the political reform plan decided by the CCP itself has basically completely stifled the political space for non-establishment politicians. At the same time, the CCP brutally overturned the five parts of the previous political reform, even the 2010 political reform plan that was accepted in the past. uprooted. The magnitude of the change is beyond the limit of "moving the dragon gate". In short, Hong Kongers who are not convinced by the CCP can no longer "get off the field and kick the waves". Instead, foreign players directly under the "national team" can play the role of both players and football certificates at the same time. .

Since the CCP implemented the National Security Law last year, many Hong Kong people have long been disillusioned with any democratic election system in Hong Kong in the future, and they have even neglected the election arrangements for the chief executive and parliaments at all levels in the future. However, this time the CCP has strengthened the role of the Election Commission. In addition to eliminating the opportunity for Hong Kong people who are not recognized by the CCP to participate in politics, the political map of the existing Hong Kong establishment has been re-divided: including the existing political and economic interests of the Hong Kong business community, and even the role of the Turkish Communist Party. The roles have also been repositioned.

Ultra-Left Sickness<br class="smart">Since the handover of sovereignty, the CCP has been unable to "conquer" the "spoiled child" of Hong Kong. Regarding the deep-seated contradictions in Hong Kong, some inside the party believe that Hong Kong Tigers can effectively solve the problem of people's livelihood is one way out. However, the current uneven distribution of land resources and high property prices further intensify social contradictions. Their thinking still remains that if Hong Kong people can live and work in peace and contentment, social conflicts will gradually decrease, and the resistance encountered by the Hong Kong Tigers' governance can be gradually eliminated. Therefore, the CCP needs to solve substantive problems from the local business community.

The local business community is a long-term vested interest in Hong Kong. Real estate developers have been sitting on lucrative land resources for many years. I believe that some people in the CCP have long coveted it. At the same time, they “think” that Hong Kong Tigers have never dared to offend the business community, and even some housing and land policies will obstructed. On the other hand, the stance of the business community in the last (2017) chief executive election was once the "king maker" that influenced the final result, which once attracted the attention of the top leaders of the CCP. In 2019, when the Hong Kong Tigers proposed the amendment to the Fugitive Offenders Ordinance, some business people expressed their concerns and concerns about the motion, and even did not support the passing of the motion. Therefore, in order to ensure the successful election of the chief executive candidate supported by the CCP in the future, it is not ruled out that the top leaders of the CCP believe that it is necessary to directly coordinate, at least strategically weaken the influence of the local business community on the election, and reduce the obstruction of some vested interests.

In fact, many leftists have long believed that the "big sand" is their "thorn in the eyes", and their political loyalty has never been as good as that of traditional leftists or party insiders with a strong background in the CCP. Therefore, the CCP is not worried that they will affect the political and economic lifeline of Hong Kong for a long time. Therefore, this time to strengthen the functions of the Election Committee and change the composition of the Legislative Council, on the one hand, it will reduce the chances of non-establishment parties successfully entering the Council, on the other hand, it will also "dilute" the influence of the local business community in the Legislative Council and the Election Committee. .

The Turkish Communist Party has become the "opposition" within the party
For a long time, the CCP’s positioning of the opposition or non-establishment faction is only a political vase: Hong Kong’s political system is still dominated by the establishment and the administration, and the non-establishment faction only expresses their objections within a controllable range. Thus creating a political climate that appears to be free speech.

The current political reform plan implemented by the CCP has stopped the possibility of non-establishment factions from entering the parliament, but the CCP still needs to create a political pattern of “open-minded governance and wide acceptance of different voices in society”, allowing a small number of people in the system to play “the role of” Therefore, some politicians who have been "absorbed" by the opposition and who have called themselves "centrists" in the past but lost in the election will have the opportunity to replace them and re-enter the parliament or the electoral committee.

At the same time, some returnees from the "party elites" will likely become another emerging establishment force in the parliament. On the one hand, they use their professional strength in the business sector to attack the political groups in the local business sector, and at the same time, they will show a sense of sympathy for the CCP. High loyalty and deep party connections. So how should the existing local traditional leftist parties be positioned? Perhaps strategically, the Turkistan Communist Party has to distinguish itself from those elite royalists who return home. They will put forward more "close to people's sentiments" positions on social issues of people's livelihood, thus replacing the former non-establishment role.

In short: there is no non-establishment political system in Hong Kong, some returnee elite parties will become loyalists who support the CCP, and the Turkish Republican centrists will “step back” in the CCP’s political spectrum and become the “opposition” within the party. ". At the same time, the recent debate about the "loyal waste" within the establishment faction has already reflected that their intra-party power struggle between them will intensify.

The 2022 Chief Executive Competition <br class="smart">It was predicted earlier that the Legislative Council election, which had been postponed for a year, would be postponed again. However, if the CCP intends that the chief executive can be elected as scheduled in 2022, it is estimated that in the next year, the candidate qualification review committee will be established, the composition of the election committee, the election of the Legislative Council and the election of the chief executive will be completed sequentially. So who can be appointed by Emperor Xi to be the next chief executive?

All the following are purely estimates: Chen, who has been regarded as the "election" of multiple chief executives, is expected to be underestimated again. As for the "Li Dajian" who retired from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange earlier, it is also possible that with the support of the returnees, he will try to enter the gate, or he may find a position in the next chief executive team and then wait for the next attack. In addition, Haode of course hopes that the achievements made in this term will be valued by Emperor Xi and will continue to be re-elected. However, Si Wai, who has been jealous of her, is also eager to regain the throne of the chief executive. Especially when Emperor Xi also wants to crack down on the business world and improve people's livelihood as the future direction of Hong Kong's development, it is not impossible for him to return to the DPRK. However, Shao Fangbo, who is of the same faction as him, may also be "exceptionally promoted" to continue the Jiang faction's long-standing political influence in Hong Kong.

Of course, the final selection still depends on the outcome of the power struggle within the CCP.