[Chairman Rabbit] The choice made by Hong Kong people: Open Pandora's box

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Chairman Rabbit 20191126

1. Hong Kong people's choice - opening Pandora's box

On the National Day of 2019, Ben Bo wrote an article called "The People's Historical Choice".

“…[People] have chosen to stand on the side of the motherland. Before, there may have been quite a few people who were very critical of the system, skeptical of policies and lines, wary of patriotism, and wished to maintain a certain degree of political But after going through this summer, they will choose to support the party and the motherland more firmly. This is a sincere and sincere choice, and it also represents a kind of "reconciliation" - in the entanglement and doubt, they sincerely chose The party has chosen the motherland and bound its existence, future and development to the motherland... History is full of chance, but it is also inevitable.

For some time, people have experienced doubt, withdrawal, but finally made the choice and embarked on the journey of departure. This is the sincere and heartfelt choice of the people. This choice is difficult for Western society to understand, but it is our most precious national destiny.

... History will finally test everything for us. "

On November 24, 2019, Hong Kong citizens who had experienced more than five months of turmoil passed the district council elections and made their choices. They prescribed their prescriptions to stop violence and chaos: the government is at fault, the police are at fault, the police A price must be paid, and demands must be met.

The reason why this district council election will be a real watershed event in the history of Hong Kong is because the five-month movement has developed a lot of violence and hatred, which has formed a huge impact on the basic rule of law and ethical foundation of society. impact and challenge. In this historical period, it is not only necessary to provide a technical solution to the movement, but also a moral and ethical statement.

In this statement, the 60 percent actually chose not to secede from the violence of the people in black, and blamed it all on public power. This statement is that Hong Kong has pushed its own government fanaticism and ethical confusion to an important critical point, completely opening a dark Pandora's box. For the first time, the mainstream of society has unequivocally recognized indiscriminate/unscrupulous violence and hate crimes as legitimate means to achieve political ends. The "referendum" provided Hong Kong society with a huge, unavoidable, and mutually influential "consensus", and formally gave political and moral authority to the opposition and black-clothed thugs, and denied the Hong Kong government (GOSAR) and the Hong Kong police (HKP). ) the fundamental logic and political mandate of using the state apparatus to suppress violence.

Hong Kong people who are obsessed with the authorities have lost sight of ethics and righteousness. They are only complacent about the fact that they have formed a consensus in orderly queue and vote, and are intoxicated by "direct election democracy". And history tells us that, eighty-six years ago, Germans with good civic order and order put Hitler on the throne.

Today, GOSAR responded immediately by setting up an independent review committee to study the causes of the movement. The opposition politicians did not back down, and immediately pointed out that such a committee was unacceptable to Hong Kong citizens: demanding that an independent investigation committee be established immediately against police brutality, and responding to other demands that "the government has not much time left", if the government does not approve it. In response, "new unrest may emerge". The opposition is pressing step by step, no longer covering up, directly threatening the government with violence. So will GOSAR give in? The opinions of Hong Kong citizens have been expressed. At this time, GOSAR is actually relatively relaxed. It can "sit on the public opinion" and no longer needs to make the "political choice" and "political decision" that he is least good at, fears, and wishes to avoid. Appeasement. HKP is in jeopardy. When the HKP no longer strictly enforces the law, the city will be completely hijacked by violence and will be on the road of no return.

The people of Hong Kong have opened a dark Pandora's box and chose a very dangerous path of historical evolution. Going forward, this will be a democratized, politicized, Taiwanized, and violent Hong Kong. At all levels of society, political issues will gradually crowd out other issues. The blue-yellow conflict, the relationship between the mainland and Hong Kong, identity politics/local populism, and the political system will increasingly become the dominant social focus; highly politicized and radicalized young people will influence and dominate the political ecology of Hong Kong, and violence will Continued "banality" has become a standard part of Hong Kong's political life.

The educational growth environment, position, values, and information ecosystem in which young people and the elderly are very different are very different, which makes intergenerational changes affect the migration of social and political attitudes. This has already happened in Taiwan. Since the DPP came to power, it has been committed to promoting "de-Sinicization" and basic education that emphasizes "Taiwan identity", which has caused the new generation of Taiwanese to not only seriously lose their sense of identity with the mainland, but even dislike and oppose China. . "Green" is the new political correctness, the new mainstream, and the new political premise of the society. In the "green" Taiwanese society, young people may even think that joining the old-fashioned KMT is not only uncool, but also socially unacceptable. With the aging of KMT supporters and the gradual withdrawal of the political arena, the party gradually became marginalized, deviated from the mainstream, and eventually became a minority. Such an aging party that has strayed from mainstream public opinion will find it harder and harder to gain mainstream recognition and win elections day by day. If the entire party does not adapt to the times, revise its platform, move to the middle position (green) of Taiwanese politics, capture and cultivate young supporters, then it is only a matter of time before it dies politically.

I believe that the future development of Hong Kong will be the same as that of Taiwan. As more and more young people replace the old, society will steadily (even accelerate) in the direction of Huang, who has become politically correct. The so-called "golden ratio of six to four" may become seven to three, or even eight to two, within a few years. At that time, many blue camp political parties will realize that if they do not change their political views and redefine the party's stance, they will no longer be able to maintain their political existence and completely disappear from the stage of history. So it may have to turn yellow. At that time, the choice of the people is nothing more than blue and yellow, but dark yellow, light yellow, radical yellow, and mild yellow. The Hong Kong opposition has completed a subdivision very early, forming two major camps: pan-democratic and local, giving Huang Ying different choices. This trend has already appeared in advance.

Clearly, Hong Kong is going through the democratization of Taiwan. On this journey, Hong Kong will become farther and farther away from the mainland, and may exhibit accelerated separation. And the various disadvantages of Taiwan's democratization will also gradually appear in this city, and it is very important that, unlike Taiwan, which is self-sufficient, Hong Kong is an economy (big plane) that is completely dependent on the mainland, and it needs to provide for this separation. Pay a heavy price.

2. Several metaphors for the relationship between Hong Kong and the Mainland of the authorities

To make it easier to understand, let me say a few more metaphors.

The city of Hong Kong is like a bus that has already embarked on a very dangerous astray. District council elections are like a driver stopping a moving bus temporarily. The driver asks the passenger: Do you want to keep going? 60% of passengers said, keep going! In line with the principle of the minority obeying the majority, 40% of the passengers had to follow. They can no longer change the direction of the car, but can get off early at the station ahead. The further back, the fewer passengers left behind and the faster the speed. Inertia is irresistible, and the bus must be stopped unless there is a major accident, or even a car crash.

The Hong Kong that made this choice is the one that confounded the mainland. What a strange and incomprehensible city this is. In the past, people did not understand and believe in the logic of Hong Kong citizens, but this time they finally made it real, and people were forced to accept the reality.

Observers in mainland China are actually spectators. Seeing that the Hong Kong bus has embarked on a dangerous road. We can disagree with the judgment of the bus passengers, but we cannot avoid the fact of making this judgment. We are not passengers on the bus, we called from the bus, but they didn't listen at all (even because they didn't agree with us in the first place, our call had the opposite effect), we can only watch them go further and further down the road Far.

In addition to the bus, I will make two more image metaphors.

1. The self in the eyes of Hong Kong people: super spaceship

Hong Kong people see themselves as a delicate and independent spaceship orbiting the earth, keeping a certain distance from the earth. The operation of Hong Kong has nothing to do with the earth. It just makes the people of the earth proud. You see, we have such an asteroid. It is hundreds of thousands of kilometers away from the earth, and you can also fly up to play in a small spaceship. Hong Kong does not belong to the earth alone. It has its own unique value, can fly to any place in the universe, orbit any planet (such as the United States, Britain), and it is also what all the big planets hope to compete for. Whichever planet is better, Hong Kong is willing to fly to.

One day, the young pilots of Hong Kong's super spaceship will have grown tired of Earth. They hope to have an acceleration, and when they reach the so-called "escape velocity", they can escape the gravity of the earth, fly to the universe, fly to other planets, and find a better "host". This delicate super spaceship in Hong Kong is fully capable of escaping Earth's gravity. The vast universe is up to them to choose.

2. Hong Kong in the eyes of mainlanders: a plane flying in the air

In the eyes of mainlanders, Hong Kong is just a plane. Yes, the plane is flying at a high altitude and looks very good, but first, if there is no person on the ground to refuel the plane in the air, can the plane fly down? no. The plane would go down because it ran out of fuel. The aircraft is completely reliant on ground supplies. Second, does the aircraft have the ability to escape the gravitational constraints of the earth? Of course not, it's just a plane. The pilot raises the nose of the plane, accelerates the flight, and hopes to get off the ground. What will happen?

The people on the ground said: The higher you fly, the more you fall to pieces. You will never be able to escape the Earth's gravity.

This is the difference in perception between Hong Kong and the mainland. Fans of the Hong Kong authorities believe that they can break away from the mainland and are seriously studying this possibility. On the other hand, the mainlanders see it very clearly and regret the misjudgment and misjudgment by the authorities in Hong Kong.

In fact, not only Hong Kong, but even Taiwan, but also people from other parts of the world can see it clearly. Only fans of the Hong Kong authorities. A confused city that does not know its own destination and destiny.

3. What is the future of Hong Kong? ——It can only be to improve the relationship with the mainland

In the 21st century, the global landscape is undergoing major changes. China is working hard for the great cause of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and seeking a peaceful rise. In the process of this rise, China's path and China's choice will definitely face disputes and conflicts from outside. A business that does not go through great ups and downs cannot become a great business. A country that has not gone through great ups and downs is even less likely to become a great country.

At this critical juncture, Hong Kong, which has been given "super-national treatment" by the mainland for 22 years since its return, given meticulous resource tilt and care, and controlled the lifeline of mainland offshore finance, turned to the West for the most important choice, and even asked for help In the rival country, the United States, it seeks to break away from the mainland politically.

Of course, we cannot make generalizations about Hong Kong people, but we must also seek truth from facts: we must objectively see the internal composition and political attitude of Hong Kong society, what their political choices are, what their political identity is, what they are proud of, what they resist, reject, and deny. what. Here, it is important to separate the younger generation exclusively. As analyzed by this blog, the basics of Blue Camp are middle-aged and elderly people, but young talents represent the future of Hong Kong. More than five months of movement has allowed us to see clearly their position on mainland China:

- mistrust, prejudice, resistance, doubt, fear and negative emotions towards the Mainland;

- Disgust and conflict with China's political system order, China's road and governance model;

- Extreme resistance to the sovereignty and governance of the central government, and a desire for maximum self-determination;

- Prejudice and discrimination against mainland "ethnic groups" ("China");

——Hostility and contempt for China’s political system and values, self-proclaimed as the spokesperson of Western advanced political civilization, and the attitude of moral judge to China;

——Resistance to accepting and integrating into mainland culture

They want a high degree of self-determination and Hong Kong people take care of their affairs. The only link I hope to maintain with the mainland is interests (and should also be controlled within a "reasonable range" and reasonably distributed among Hong Kong people).

However, interests belong to interests. The young people of the new generation are different from the old Hong Kong people. They are less and less accepting of mainland China in terms of politics, society, culture, values ​​and ethnic identity. Through a series of negative cognitions and a strong sense of self-superiority towards the mainland, they constructed their self-identity and laid the foundation for their self-existence. Their real identity is not Western civilization, the essence can be summed up in one word - "Sinophobia". This fear is of course based on ignorance and prejudice, which cannot be understood and accepted by the older generation of Hong Kong people.

(Some people say that the above description is to create "ethnic" contradictions among fellow citizens. I actually particularly hate this attitude, which is idealism at best, ignorance or cover-up at worst. Years of misjudgment have led to today's situation. They should be realistic and restore their psychology, and this is their true thoughts and positions that they are willing to "proudly present". Kind-hearted mainlanders who visit Hong Kong, welcome you and the local people On-the-spot interviews with black-clothed youths)

All these have made the mainland of China gradually see the place of Hong Kong. Hong Kong can make a choice, you can choose to do Self-hating Chinese, choose Sinophobia, choose not to like mainlanders. This is your right to choose. And in today's one country, two systems, we have to protect your right. Since the young people in Hong Kong have shown their prejudice, discrimination and hatred of the motherland to the whole of China, there is no reason to expect the mainlanders to send you flowers and candy. Mainlanders can choose not to like Hong Kong as a place anymore. International students and academic researchers can choose to avoid universities in Hong Kong; professionals can choose to avoid employment opportunities in Hong Kong; Hong Kong drift parents can avoid sending their children to local schools; tourists can avoid traveling to Hong Kong; cultural consumers can avoid consuming Hong Kong entertainment culture ; Party A may choose to avoid Hong Kong suppliers or staff. These can be people's own choice.

More importantly, can the mainland hand over the most important resource, the financial center, which is related to its own economic lifeline, to a place that does not accept its own sovereignty and governance? Under the international trend, a certain degree of strategic decoupling with Hong Kong is an inevitable choice.

Hong Kong will surely pay for its arrogance.

What Hong Kong people need to understand is that Hong Kong is an economic existence that is completely dependent on mainland China (which is very different from Taiwan, which is largely self-sufficient with a complete economy and international economic relations). The prosperity and stability of Hong Kong's economy depends entirely on its relationship with the mainland. The better the relationship between Hong Kong and the mainland, the more harmonious they get along, and the more respect they show to mainlanders. The more you can enjoy the dividends of the mainland's economic development. As for free travel/over-exploitation of tourism, they are all technical problems, which can be solved within the scope of Hong Kong people ruling Hong Kong, and the central government will definitely cooperate actively.

Second, Hong Kong always wants to further expand its political autonomy. But Hong Kongers never seem to be able to understand a problem that mainlanders can easily understand: under the framework of one country, two systems, the premise for Hong Kong to gain greater autonomy is to fully accept China's sovereignty and theoretical "comprehensive governance", accept China's political system, order, concept of governance and political values ​​form a national identity for the motherland. As long as these are achieved and patriots become the main body of Hong Kong society, political power will naturally expand. Even, one country, two systems may continue indefinitely after 2047.

The more Hong Kong struggles, the more it hopes to "break out of China", does not accept challenges to China's sovereignty and political order, challenges national identity, and occupies the opposite side of China's state, the less political power it may gain, and the more likely it will lose its autonomy (theoretical even before 2047).

This is a very simple truth for mainlanders (and I believe Macau people can understand it), but Hong Kong, who is obsessed by the authorities, cannot understand it at all.

Hong Kong is not a super spaceship, but a plane that cannot fly away from Earth. It tossed and tossed and couldn't leave the earth's gravity. All the costs can only be borne by oneself. We should definitely protect "one country, two systems, Hong Kong people administering Hong Kong, and a high degree of autonomy." Therefore, even if we do not recognize or understand the choices made by Hong Kong people, we cannot change them, and we must respect them. This respect is not from moral or ethical respect, but from the perspective of law, contract, big politics, and big history. It's a bit of a detached gesture. The fate of their city is in their hands; they make the choice, they bear the responsibility, and they pay the price. If you don't pay the price, you can't establish a causal relationship, you can't learn from the lessons, you can't experience and grow, and you can't get rid of the delusions of the authorities. We cannot choose for them, nor experience it for them.

The road is long. It does not mean that Hong Kong's economy is in recession, and it will soon embrace the mainland. Under one country, two systems, "the omnipotence of the Western system" is an unfalsifiable proposition. The economic recession may make Hong Kong society more politicized, with a stronger "de-China" sentiment, and more hope to solve the problem from the perspective of "democratization" and "Westernization". Surrounded by Internet information in postmodern society, it is difficult to break this kind of cognition, fixed thinking and values, and it is a very powerful closed loop. Hong Kong, which is obsessed by the authorities, may be trapped in this closed loop for a long time, or even unable to extricate itself.

A country has "national fortune", and a city also has "city fortune". This fate seems accidental, but there is a historical inevitability behind it.

4. How to complete the second handover of Hong Kong?

How to make Hong Kong return to the people for the second time? This topic will be left for later, and will not be discussed today.

The general direction is that we cannot rely on benevolence, blood transfusion, sugar distribution to Hong Kong, or exchange of interests. This kind of interest exchange will not bring respect and recognition. On the contrary, it may make the giant baby who believes in "crying children get milk" will never grow up, never accept lessons, and always believe that everything is what they deserve.

Moreover, after these few months, domestic public opinion may no longer accept the solution of the Hong Kong issue by continuing to transfuse blood to Hong Kong and strengthening Hong Kong's "super-national treatment". After 22 years of return, it can be seen that this method cannot achieve the expected effect.

In the final analysis, Hong Kong has to be attracted by its values.

Fundamentally, it is to build an attractive political civilization. In fact, with the rapid development of China's economy, it is in the process of going from "getting rich" to "getting strong". How to "translate" the system with Chinese characteristics and Chinese stories into international political language? (Like Lee Kuan Yew telling the Western world about Singapore's system)? What kind of platform and what kind of propaganda methods are used to convey this information? How to change the status quo that Hong Kong people are surrounded by anti-China messages every day? How to build your own international public opinion platform? How to develop from "not being beaten" to "not being scolded" and win international respect? How to convince Hong Kong that China offers a different path from the West but can provide a differentiated and successful path for the community with a shared future for mankind, and it is a path that is more suitable for the foundation and texture of Asian civilization?

Building a civilized political system in mainland China that has international appeal and challenges the soft power of the West may be the fundamental solution to attracting Hong Kong and Taiwan. This question is beyond the scope of this article and is written here today.

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