This article is my personal observation on the current cryptocurrency market, so let me make a conclusion here.

1. The bear market is not over, and the market has not bottomed out.
2. Cryptocurrencies will not disappear, and will flourish even more in the future.
3. Before the end of the first quarter of next year, the market may turn around. New public chains will rise next year, and the currency circle will be reshuffled.

First of all, there have been quite a few articles on the Internet about FTX-related events, so I won’t repeat them here. What I want to say is from the standpoint of the capital market. The FTX event is undoubtedly an event for the entire investment circle. Shocking Education, he explained that no matter how glamorous the surface is and how huge the assets are, it is just a private company that cannot be properly supervised. With the rise of cryptocurrencies, the investment circle seems to have found a new investment target. In addition to the previous bull market, many capitals are flocking to cryptocurrencies. However, the crisis behind them is fully exposed this time.

No matter how good-looking his books are, the data is on the chain. The untraceability and decentralization of the blockchain make these parts difficult to supervise. Overnight, in the capital circle, for the cryptocurrency Investment risks have all increased several times. Of course, this does not mean that this industry is not good. It is just that, at present, there is a lack of a proper regulatory mechanism. The future of cryptocurrency must be decentralized, which has not been reached at this stage. Before, there were no exchanges and blockchain companies that were 100% safe. This is the current view of the entire investment circle.

Let's take a look at the changes in the market since the FTX thunderstorm.

FTX Thunderbolt Lazy Bag" Timeline Arrangement: CZ wants to smash FTT, 6 billion magnesium in 3 days, and buy it from Binance...

Let's look at some data.

• BTC Daily

• BNB daily line

• FTT daily line

Compared with the above three pictures, let’s talk about one thing. When the ftx incident surfaced on 11/7, Binance said it would sell ftt. At the same time, did you see a large amount of BNB selling? I think there are not many people in the market who can sell BNB in such a large amount. Because he said that it is not true that ftx holds a large amount of ftt, so, did he also make synchronous adjustments? Of course, this is just what we can see from the data. Next, Binance announced that they would set up a bailout fund after FTX confirmed that it was unable to recover. If it is smashed, who will buy it? And who sold it? Furthermore, not long after, Binance began to advocate the need for POR, and then announced the reserve assets. However, note that this number has not been certified by a third-party impartial organization, but is only official data.

Well, when things come to this, it should not be difficult to find that if you want to shave someone else's beard, you must first shave your own beard clean. Although, in terms of the whole thing, Binance seems to be a big profiter, but this matter The matter is a great harm to the entire currency circle. The entire market is filled with investors' distrust of exchanges, and institutions also show a high degree of distrust of the blockchain companies they invest in. At this stage , There are many memes in the market.

As smart as you are, you should know that in such a mood, the market has no funds to pursue, and the exchange is busy preparing to reserve funds to deal with a large number of withdrawals, a large amount of funds leave the market, and the overall market appears to be insufficiently liquid. , At this time, two things will happen. Because of insufficient liquidity, the market is prone to instant skyrocketing and plummeting. Who is controlling the market? In my opinion, more than 80% of the assets are adjusted by the exchange, plus some institutions have disposed of assets due to the FTX incident.

Up to this point, let’s make a brief conclusion. In the case of insufficient market liquidity and no momentum to chase the rise, the next trend of cryptocurrency should show a situation of shocking the bottom of the market. If the institution goes bankrupt, it will accelerate the withdrawal of funds as a whole. In this way, it will inevitably cause a large number of sell-offs, and a stampede will occur. At the time of writing this article, I predict that it will probably appear in early December to December In the middle of the month, there should be a wave of a large amount of capital fleeing. At this point in time, there are not many things retail investors can do. My suggestions are as follows:

1. When encountering a rebound, properly dispose of altcoins.
2. You can choose value-based public chain coins, such as Matic, Atom, APT, DOT, etc., to invest in DCA and transfer assets to the chain, preferably a cold wallet.
3. Don't chase high easily. For the current strategy, you can refer to the trend line and carry out a strategy of shorting at high points. After all, the upside is limited, but the downside has room to accelerate.
4. Don't easily believe what any KOL tells you, the bottom is here, you can buy the bottom, because, under the current atmosphere, there will be no funds to chase the rise, and retail investors in the market have all left the market, who will buy? Moreover, we should continue to pay attention to potential projects in the market and make value-based investments (I will analyze some potential projects in the future for reference).
5. Stay away from NFT. Under the current circumstances, no matter how good the physique is, the project party will be powerless, so don't expect it. You can continue to pay attention, but stay rational. Because, only cheaper, not the cheapest.
6. Protect your funds, and you can withdraw money to Taiwan dollars when necessary, but the cryptocurrency market, undoubtedly, is still a place with the most opportunities.

Let me talk about a few things next, and you will see a few things in December, and the attitude you should have.

1. The market crashed without warning, and altcoins crashed. (Don't be nervous, this is just a process. As long as you don't hold meme coins, everything is none of your business. After all, Bitcoin has been cut in half and cut in half, and finally hit new highs repeatedly. As long as the blockchain continues to develop, your hands The value-based assets on the Internet will continue to increase in value, but you must continue to pay attention to the development of your project side and stay sharp)
2. The market is pervased by the imminent decoupling and destruction of stablecoins. (USDC and USDT will not be destroyed, if there is a decoupling, don’t be nervous. If you are nervous, it means that your assets are over-allocated on this. Just ask, holding a large amount of stablecoins when the exchange is not safe, Wouldn't it be better to put it in a fixed deposit in a US dollar account?)
3. High interest rates and discounts on various exchanges. (In the next period of time, in the absence of a proper decentralized regulatory mechanism, it is recommended that you learn about the DEX decentralized exchange, because this may be a better choice, because he can use your own Wallet trading, don’t put too much assets on any one exchange, because the lack of supervision is just a private company, and most of them are registered in places you have never been to in your life)

Having said so much, I actually want to tell everyone, don’t worry, blockchain technology will not disappear. One day, there will be a proper regulatory mechanism, and if you continue to participate, you will find more opportunities. However, at the same time , protect your assets, don't put your money in other people's pockets, and be responsible for your own assets. In this way, I believe that everyone will get the rewards you should have in this market in the future.

I hope everyone is safe, smooth, earn a lot of money, and live a quality life.