Bitcoin Market Analysis (September 15, 2022)

【Latest News】 The reason for the rise in inflation and interest rates, the confidence of the CEOs of large US companies fell to a two-year low. The report from the U.S. Business Roundtable showed that the CEO Economic Outlook Index slipped 11.4 points to 84.2 in the third quarter. Respondents were less optimistic about their company's sales, capital spending and hiring over the next six months. Those metrics have fallen for the third straight quarter. CEOs cut their forecast for U.S. economic growth this year to 2.3 percent from 3.2 percent, the survey showed.

Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio has made a gloomy prediction for US stocks and the US economy, saying: It looks like interest rates will have to rise sharply, towards a high range of 4.5%-6%, which will drive private sector credit Growth has slowed, which in turn affects private sector spending, as well as the broader economy.

Just raising interest rates to around 4.5% could send U.S. stocks down nearly 20%, Dalio said. Investors may still be taking long-term inflation too lightly. While the bond market shows traders expect inflation to average around 2.6% a year over the next decade, Dalio "predicts" inflation to be around 4.5% to 5%, and could be "significantly higher" in the event of an economic shock ". Dalio said the U.S. yield curve will be "relatively flat" until there is an "unacceptably negative impact" on the economy. The interest rate market indicated that traders had fully priced in a 75 basis point rate hike from the Fed next week, with a small chance of a rate hike unlikely. Traders expect the federal funds rate to rise from the current 2.25%-2.5% range to a peak of around 4.4% next year. Investors speculate that the Fed will drag the economy into a recession next year to curb inflation, and they forecast policymakers to ease interest rates in late 2023. The S&P 500 is heading for its biggest annual drop since 2008, while U.S. Treasuries have suffered one of the worst hits in decades.

Last night, the US stock Dow closed up 0.1%, the Nasdaq closed up 0.74%, and the US dollar index fell slightly after failing to challenge the 110 mark, and finally closed down 0.15% at 09.64. Spot gold fluctuated around $1,700 and finally closed down 0.27% at $1,697.42 an ounce. Spot silver finally settled up 1.59% at $19.63 an ounce.

September 15, 2022 will be the most important day in the currency circle. On this day, we will witness history. The Ethereum merger event will be the top event today, so everyone must pay attention. According to the Ultrasound.money website, the merger is still a long way off. There are more than 3 hours, that is, around 14:30 this afternoon. If the merger can be successfully merged, then this will be a good event, because after the merger, Ethereum can theoretically achieve deflation. If there is any information, I will release it as soon as possible. Twitter, welcome everyone to follow, thank you.

Web3 music creation platform Arpeggi Labs announced the completion of a $5.1 million seed round led by a16z, 1confirmation, Palm Tree Crew, WndrCo Ventures, Steve Aoki, 3LAU, Wyclef Jean, Disco Fries, Electric Feel Ventures, Louis Bell, Joe Zadeh, Audius The Foundation, Shayne Coplan, Paul Veradittakit and Cooper Turley participated. It is reported that on Arpeggi Labs anyone can create, publish and mix any audio. Arpeggi Labs seeks to change the way music is created, ensuring that sound is attributable to the correct source, while realigning creator incentives to not restrict creators from reusing existing artist music, but instead encourage its use.

A16z Crypto Engineering Partner Michael Blau and a16z Crypto Partner Mason Hall launched a "Proof of Merge" Ethereum NFT ("Proof of Merge" Ethereum NFT), software engineer Zachm.eth designed the front end of the NFT project. According to Michael Blau's disclosure on social media, the "Proof of Merger" NFT is a dynamic NFT that changes in three stages according to the progress of the Ethereum merger. The first stage is before the merger, and the NFT image shows two separate circles; the second stage is in local time. Earlier this Wednesday, the half circles of the two circles will merge; the third stage shows the two circles fully merged, indicating that the Ethereum merger is complete. The number of "Proof-of-Merge" NFTs is unlimited and free, but can only be claimed before the Ethereum merger is completed. As of now, about 9,000 crypto wallet addresses have participated in the minting.

SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said he hoped SEC staff would have a “flexible” approach to working with token projects to register digital tokens as securities. “I have asked staff, as part of the process of registering a crypto-securities intermediary, to recommend a way to allow crypto-securities and non-securities to trade with each other or at the same time,” Gensler said. Gensler reiterated that the SEC The long-standing position that most crypto tokens are securities and that many intermediaries need to register with the SEC, whether they call themselves centralized or decentralized.

[Market Analysis] Bitcoin was stunned by the CPI, and then it has been an adjustment trend for the past two days. This trend will continue because the market urgently needs confidence, and the current lack of confidence can only be adjusted weakly.

At the 4-hour level, the bottom support is near 19500, and the top resistance is near 21800 and 22500. No matter how the market changes, you must remember that the current best trading strategy is to invest.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, put an end to the full-cow stud, and refuse loan leverage.