Bitcoin Market Analysis (August 24, 2022)

[Yesterday's resumption] The minutes of the Fed's discount rate meeting released yesterday showed that before the Fed's July 26-27 policy meeting, among the 12 Fed regional Feds, the St. Louis Fed and the Minneapolis Fed hope to raise the discount rate by 100%. 50 basis points, the Kansas Fed Board wants a 50 basis point increase, and the rest of the Fed wants a 75 basis point increase.

Last night, the decline of US stocks narrowed. In the end, the Dow closed down 0.47%, the S&P 500 closed down 0.22%, and the Nasdaq basically closed flat. Gold rose sharply to $24 and then fell back, finally closing up 0.69% at $1,748.4 an ounce. The U.S. dollar index rose to a high of 109.29 and then retreated, extending its losses during the U.S. session, and finally closed down 0.4% at 108.52. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has been on a roller coaster ride and is still above 3%, closing at 3.24%.

The U.S. dollar index rose for 7 consecutive trading days and then fell. Here is more about market sentiment. When the market opened yesterday, the Fear and Greed Index compiled by Wall Street Intelligence issued an early warning, "After the U.S. dollar index rose sharply, the risk appetite decreased instead, and we need to pay attention today. downside risk". Selling the dollar is definitely not a good choice until the fundamentals and the Fed's stance have changed significantly.

You must know the main point of Huawei Ren Zhengfei's speech yesterday. Among them, the most influential sentence of mine is "to pass the cold to everyone". The deep meaning behind this sentence is to let everyone know that the future economic downturn must be It is very unoptimistic, so it is necessary to make the necessary preparations as soon as possible. The old man said that in the next 10 years, I can't see that far for the time being, but I can at least see that there will not be a good life in the next 5 years, because then If it continues, there are bound to be a lot of moths. As long as a peaceful environment cannot be provided, China's economy will not be able to do well. Therefore, everyone here must pay attention to risks. There must be necessary cash flow and necessary anti-risk assets. To match, don't put all the funds in one basket, otherwise you really can't afford to lose if something goes wrong.

The latest data shows that since mid-June, with the increasing transparency of the merger, Ethereum market sentiment has improved, and it has maintained capital inflows for nine consecutive weeks, with a total inflow of $162 million. The crypto market is still showing capital outflows, with an overall outflow of about $9 million last week and a transaction volume of about $1 billion, 55% lower than the annual average. Bitcoin saw outflows for the third week in a row, with current outflows totaling around $15 million. Glassnode data shows that the number of addresses holding at least 10 ETH is 314,890, a record high.

Heather Morgan, who is suspected of being involved in the Bitfinex theft and $4.5 billion in cryptocurrency laundering, said on his social media that he was not involved in any cryptocurrency projects. Any cryptocurrency or NFT project with her name or likeness on it is a scam that she does not endorse. It is reported that Morgan and her husband Ilya Lichtenstein were indicted in February this year for allegedly laundering $4.5 billion in bitcoin stolen from Bitfinex. If convicted of money laundering and conspiracy to defraud the United States, they could face up to 25 years in prison. But the pair were released on collective bail at $8 million.

Although it is currently a bear market, capital has always been actively deployed in price comparison, and financing information is available every day, which is enough to show a signal. First, the capital is still there, and it is still madly planning the future, and secondly, the bear market is the best time to invest in projects. This is true for institutions, and the same is true for retail investors. For retail investors, they can buy low-cost chips in the bear market. Therefore, it is said that the bull market earns the bear market money, the bear market layout, and the bull market distribution.

Inworld AI, an AI-driven metaverse platform, announced the completion of a $50 million Series A financing led by Intel Capital and Section 32, Founders Fund, Accelerator Investments LLC, First Spark Ventures, Kleiner Perkins, BITKRAFT Ventures, CRV, Microsoft M12 Fund, Micron Ventures, LG Technology Ventures, SK Telecom Venture Capital, NTT Docomo Ventures, etc. participated in the investment. It is reported that Inworld uses advanced artificial intelligence (AI) technology to build metaverse characters and give personalities, thoughts, memories and behaviors to mimic the social nature of human interaction. Its platform has been integrated with game engines (such as Unreal and Unity), developers can Easily deploy designed characters into game environments.

Metaverse identity platform Ready Player Me raises $56 million led by a16z, Roblox co-founder David Baszucki, Twitch co-founder Justin Kan, King Games co-founders Sebastian Knutsson and Riccardo Zacconi, Sports and Entertainment Companies including Endeavour, Kevin Hart and Hartbeat Ventures participated in the investment. Ready Player Me aims to allow users to establish virtual identities in the metaverse through virtual products such as NFTs, and more than 1,000 project parties currently use their products on the platform. Media conglomerate Warner Bros, fashion house Dior and sportswear brand New Balance are all working with Ready Player Me in a bid to integrate into the metaverse in the future.

[Bitcoin market analysis] From the daily level, the current position has no willingness to move up, and there is no such motivation, so there is a high probability that a downward test will be carried out. Looking at it, it is still relatively weak, especially Bitcoin, which is too weak. In this case, September will soon be ushered in. Everyone knows that September is the month of interest rate hikes, so there will be more data before the interest rate hike meeting. Announcement, so on the whole, it is mainly to follow the sentiment at the macro level.

At the 4-hour level, there is no effective support signal, so be prepared to make progress and explore the bottom. The support below is around 19000. Note that this is short-term and medium-term level support.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, put an end to the full-cow stud, and refuse loan leverage.