Sister Mu is angry at the wrong behavior of the Federal Reserve on the issue of raising interest rates, and the high inflation in the United States may turn into deflation!

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Tonight, the whole network will focus on the European Central Bank's interest rate hike meeting at 8:15. Due to the further surge in inflation in the euro zone in August, the current major institutions generally expect to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, including the familiar Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank , JPMorgan Chase, Nomura, Morgan Stanley, etc., only UBS and ING predict a 50 basis point rate hike tonight. According to the past rules, the majority of the predictions have a high probability of success, so it is very likely that a follow-up will occur tonight. The second rate hike of this magnitude after a 75 basis point hike in 1999, and after tonight's rate hike, Europe will officially end the eight-year era of negative interest rates, and in addition to this hawkish rate hike, Europe has also With the energy crisis and the inflation crisis under the pressure, the European benchmark stock index Stoxx 600 has fallen by more than 15% so far this year, but the current valuation is still higher than the level during the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020 and the financial crisis in 2008, so it is not worth it. After the exclusion, the bottom will continue to be explored.

After talking about the interest rate hike in Europe, let’s talk about the Fed’s rate hike in September. Goldman Sachs, which was still clamoring for a 50 basis point rate hike this time, has also softened this time. Last night’s latest forecast, Goldman Sachs believes that the Fed will raise interest rates 75 times this month. Base points, interest rates will be raised by 50 basis points in November, 25 basis points in December, and the benchmark interest rate will be raised to a level of 4.5% to 4.74% by the end of the year. The previous forecasts for September and November were 50 basis points and 25 basis points, respectively. Goldman's reason for the upward revision is that Fed officials have been hawkish recently, appearing to suggest that progress in repressing inflation has not been as consistent or rapid as they had hoped.

In addition to Goldman Sachs, the CME Group FedWatch tool shows that the current market forecasts that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points in September is 78%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is reduced to 22%.

Of course, Goldman Sachs defected to the hawks, and of course there are doves who stick to it. Among them, Mrs. Ark Capital Wood denounced the Fed for being too aggressive, so that high inflation in the United States will soon turn into deflation. The reason of Mrs. Mutou is that the chairman of the Federal Reserve Powell said that only the CPI data is used to formulate policies, but this data is extremely lagging behind, including the employment data can not reflect the current economic level, and there are already signs of deflation from other indicators. Already: ​Key inflation indicators such as gold and copper point to risks of deflation. Even oil prices are down more than 35% from their peaks, erasing most of this year's gains. So Sister Mu said that she would not be surprised if there is a major policy shift in the next three to six months. Of course, Sister Mu has a big head, and her butt determines her head. ​I think Sister Mu's idea is a little too idealistic.

Last night, the Ethereum fork project EthereumPoW (ETHW) released an open letter to the Ethereum community, expressing its final decision to reject the proposal to merge the contract freezing code into the main code base, and insisting that it will not limit the contract pool on ETHW in any way. . And said that ETHW Core has reached a consensus on the following. 1. 100% respect the current ETHW ledger and will not introduce any supervision or centralized technology. Whether it's a proposal in good faith to protect users, or a technical compromise requested by a regulator. 2. 100% adhere to decentralized governance, and will not introduce any blacklist or whitelist or other technologies to restrict asset transfer. 3. 100% respect for any personal, DAO and institutional wallet, this includes ordinary wallets, on-chain multi-signature wallets, and even hacker wallets. Previously, Master Bao and the others proposed to freeze some stable assets such as LPs in the liquidity pool and USDT and USDC stolen by hackers, but they were opposed by the community at that time, and this time they completely gave up.

Following the ethereum merger, the price of ethereum could decouple from other cryptocurrencies as its staking rewards would make it similar to instruments like bonds or commodities with an arbitrage premium, according to a report from Chainalysis on Sept. 7. And staking yields could drive strong institutional adoption. ETH staking is expected to provide pledgers with yields of 10-15% per year, making ETH an “attractive bond alternative for institutional investors,” according to the report. The report also noted that a move to PoS on Ethereum would also make Ethereum more environmentally friendly, which could also make Ethereum more comfortable for institutional investors with a commitment to sustainability.

Both uniswap and Optimism today stated that the Ethereum merger will not halt the network, and will only support The Merge post-POS chain in the future, and there are no plans to support any Ethereum forks in web-side applications.

Last night, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes said in an interview with the "Unchained" podcast recently that Ethereum does not qualify as a currency, but Bitcoin can. Hayes believes that as long as Ethereum has other uses, it cannot become a currency. In addition to being a cryptocurrency itself, Ethereum can also be used as a Gas fee to support smart contracts on Ethereum, and it is also used to pay for and Network fees for other token transactions. In contrast, Bitcoin is backed by a network that is not tokenized and has very little smart contract functionality. Because the value of Bitcoin is not confused with the actual utility of other things, it is a good form of money.

Dogecoin investor Keith Johnson has filed a $258 billion class-action lawsuit against Elon Musk, according to Reuters, adding seven new investor plaintiffs and six new defendants to the case, including Musk’s foundation Boring Co., a facility and tunnel construction company, and the Dogecoin Foundation, among others. The lawsuit, filed in June this year, alleges Musk used the Meme coin Dogecoin for illegal promotion, such as promoting Dogecoin as a "legitimate investment" on his social media profiles, artificially inflating its price, and using it as a "legal investment". This approach "profits tens of billions of dollars". At the same time, it has always known that Dogecoin lacks intrinsic value and that its value "depends entirely on marketing"

Binance announced the launch of Binance Account Binding (BAB) Token, which is a soul-bound Token that will serve as the identity proof that Binance users have completed KYC authentication. Users can mint BAB Token on BNB Chain as an identity certificate, and can participate in the construction of multiple projects to get rewards. The Binance announcement shows that the Token is not transferable, but can be revoked. A single Binance user ID can only mint one BAB Token on a certain chain. This soul token should be a new way for Binance to deal with regulation in the future.​​​

Quotes

BTC: The current trend of the pie is more and more like a relatively bottom range trend. I think Bitcoin below 20,000 is very suitable for fixed investment, so when the opportunity comes, everyone must seize it. After the fixed investment, you can wait patiently for a rebound or reversal, of course The reversal takes a longer period of time, which requires the support of a large amount of funds. If it is a small retail investor, it is not suitable to buy Bitcoin.

At the 4-hour level, the lower support level is around 18700, and the upper resistance is around 19600. If the 4-hour level once again stabilizes around 20400, there is a chance to continue to rise, but it will take longer.

ETH: The merger is getting closer every day. First of all, the merger is definitely a good event for the short-term currency price, and of course it has a high probability of being successful. However, once a major accident occurs in the merger, then Ethereum may usher in a sharp decline, and then in addition to the good news of the merger. In addition, the fork will also attract a lot of speculators. Although everyone knows that the probability of success of this pow fork is not high, the market value converted by the price of IOU is now similar to that of ETC, which means that some of the hot money from speculation will also sneak in because of this. , combined with several forks in history that have had a positive impact on the currency price, so this is also a potential positive. In addition, the deflation and environmental protection properties after the merger of Ethereum, as well as the increase in the pledge rate in the future will also make ETH more scarce and easy to use, so it is also worth holding in the medium and long term.

LUNC : Now it has been completely memeized, and Upbit Jintan held a LUNC-related meeting to discuss the use of LUNC transaction fee income, saying that the transaction fee of LUNC should be returned to the victim. It is the big head, so it is more reasonable for Binance to raise it. Then this model has obvious beneficiaries and victims. The exchange is the one who bleeds, but if the exchange spit out the money, he will find a way to make it back. What's more, Binance lost $1.6 billion in the Luna thunderstorm, so it's hard to say who will bear the loss in the end. In short, this model is still a negative-sum game of property transfer as a whole. This is suitable for short-term investors. It is recommended that trading novice participate.

[Disclaimer] The above content does not constitute any investment advice. According to the relevant documents of the "Risk Warning on Preventing Illegal Fund Raising in the Name of [Virtual Currency] [Blockchain]" issued by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and other five departments in August 2018, please Look at the blockchain rationally, and don’t blindly trust others. The digital asset market is extremely volatile and risky, and you need to be highly cautious when entering the market.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, put an end to the full-cow stud, and refuse loan leverage.