The Macau government did not hide the epidemic, do you believe it?

The Macao SAR government said that it has not had any new confirmed cases of Wuhan pneumonia for the 11th consecutive day. So far, the number of cases has remained at 10. Many Macao people feel that the epidemic situation has settled down. Traffic jams appeared on the streets again. On February 14, there were 27,000 people entering and leaving Macau at various ports, of which 11,000 were Macau residents, an increase of 30% over the previous day.

In fact, there is still a chance for the "community outbreak" in the third stage of the Wuhan epidemic. While the epidemic has not yet been completely controlled, a large number of people can't wait to run around. Macau people are too slack about the epidemic. We just need to observe The situation in the surrounding area should not be taken lightly.

Professor Marc Lipsitch of Harvard University estimated the number of air passengers between Wuhan and cities located in 49 regions around the world through a generalized linear regression model, and estimated the number of imported Wuhan pneumonia cases in 191 regions, of which Indonesia is in Five cases were expected to occur in the study, but the Indonesian government announced that there were still zero cases of infection, which is far lower than the value estimated in the study. There are two possibilities for this phenomenon: one is that the Indonesian government has faked to conceal the epidemic, or that there may be cases of infection but not detected by the government.

From 2017 to 2019, only 2 million Chinese tourists visited Indonesia, or about 1 million per year. According to this number of tourists, it is estimated that 5 people were recruited. However, Macau has tens of millions of mainland tourists every year. According to statistics from the Macao Statistics Bureau, in the first half of 2019 alone, there were more than 14.3 million mainland tourists (source: Huajing Industrial Research Institute). According to the method of Harvard professor Marc Lipsitch, there should be more than 10 Wuhan pneumonia patients in Macau, plus the tens of thousands of floating people who travel between Zhuhai and Macau every day, there are only 10 confirmed cases in Macau. Unusual.

In addition, there are also many cases of Wuhan pneumonia detected by tourists after leaving the country. The 25th case in Hong Kong is a 58-year-old man who works in Zhuhai and Macau and has been to Zhuhai and Macau during the incubation period. The Macau Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also announced that the number of people who had been to Macau had been diagnosed in other places. There were 22 cases in Zhuhai, and two new cases were added in Zhuhai on February 13. One of them was a 50-year-old female patient who went to the hospital on January 20. He went to Macau, joined another patient in Zhuhai City who was diagnosed on February 7, and stayed in Macau until he left Macau via Gongbei Port on the 27th. The two confirmed cases stayed in Macau for seven days. Infection is a miracle. In addition to the land route, there are also problems with the air route. The two Wuhan pneumonia patients discovered earlier in South Korea took Qantas flight NX826 from Macau to Seoul on January 31. Are the crew members on the flight infected? Qantas or the Macau SAR government has not explained the matter.

Macau Tourism Office announced yesterday that MGM Macau will be temporarily closed. So far, the total number of hotels that have closed in Macau has reached 28. MGM Macau is a five-star hotel and the 10th hotel in Macau to close four, four, and other hotels. Five-star hotels, the owners of these hotels are wealthy and powerful, and they should have a certain amount of financial resources to maintain their business for a while, but why did the casino close its doors for 11 days and stop doing business? The author believes that the closure of the hotel should be related to the outbreak of Wuhan pneumonia among employees or guests, and the closure of the hotel is completely a commercial activity. . At the same time, Galaxy Beauty World, a top nightclub in Macau, officially closed its business and immediately dismissed all employees. These gambling-related industries have closed or closed one by one. The situation is unusual. In the so-called business, apart from the sudden drop in customer base, I hope there are no other unknown factors.