Lend-Lease Act bloodletting Russia: US is creating 'two forces' in Ukraine

On April 28, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Ukrainian version of the "Lend-Lease Act" (called "Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022"), which aims to simplify the administrative process for the United States to lend or lease arms to Ukraine. with fiscal year 2023.

As early as April 6, the U.S. Senate unanimously passed the case, and the House of Representatives also passed by an overwhelming vote of 417 in favor and 10 against. The case is expected to be sent to the White House and will go into effect when President Joe Biden signs it.

The brewing of the Ukrainian version of the Lend-Lease Act has two intuitive meanings. First, the choice of the name "Lend-Lease" appealed to the ideological front. The reason why the United States invoked the World War II Act to name it is to intentionally shape the Russian-Ukrainian conflict into an "anti-fascist war" in the new century, and to make the U.S. and other aid-Ukraine camps wear the halo of "justice" to contrast the shadow of Russia's "aggression" . Although the exported weapons of the "Arsenal of Democracy" may flow into the hands of the Azov Battalion, those who are immersed in the historical situation may not be able to discern the absurdity.

Second, if the Ukrainian version of the Lend-Lease Act comes into effect, it will be able to provide post-mortem confirmation of the book name and legal significance of the U.S. move of “exporting active-duty equipment to Ukraine,” as well as a future basis for continuing this move. After all, the procurement contract between the U.S. government and arms dealers has already stated that the purchase of arms is for the use of the U.S. military. Now that its purpose has changed, there must be a new bill as an endorsement.

Combining the in-depth analysis of the battlefield situation, we can see that the United States launched the Lend-Lease Act at this time, which has two strategic significance.

Correction of prewar assessment of Russia

First of all, the United States found that its arms shipment to Ukraine has not been subjected to strong countermeasures or substantial attacks by Russia. Therefore, it has learned its essence and intends to increase its military assistance to Ukraine. A closer look at the U.S. arms export model to Ukraine since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict can be roughly divided into two stages.

The first was from February 25th to April 13th. At this time, the US military aid to Ukraine was mainly asymmetric weapons for individual soldiers, including the US$350 million armament announced on the 25th, the US$200 million armament announced on March 12, 3 The $800 million arms aid package announced on 16 June. According to the White House, as of March 16, the United States has provided Ukraine with a total of 600 Stinger systems, about 2,600 Javelin systems, 5 Mi-17 helicopters, 3 patrol boats, 4 anti-artillery and anti-UAV tracking radars, 4 anti-mortar radar systems, 200 grenade launchers and ammunition, 200 shotguns, 200 machine guns, nearly 40 million rounds of small arms ammunition, over 1 million grenades and shells, 70 Humvees and other vehicles, and An unspecified amount of security communications, electronic warfare detection systems, body armor, helmets and other tactical equipment, military medical equipment, explosive ordnance disposal and demining equipment, satellite imagery and analysis capabilities, etc.

On March 16, the United States added more military equipment assistance, including 2,000 sets of Javelin anti-tank weapons, 1,000 sets of light anti-armor weapons, 6,000 sets of AT4 anti-armor systems, 800 sets of Stinger air defense systems, 100 Switchblade UAVs, 100 grenade launchers, 5,000 rifles, 1,000 pistols, 400 machine guns, 400 shotguns, over 20 million rounds of small arms ammunition, 25,00 body armors, 25,000 helmets, laser-guided rockets (APKWS).

However, from April 13, the aid entered the second phase. On the same day, the United States announced the export of 18 M777 howitzers equipped with 40,000 rounds of artillery ammunition to Ukraine. On April 21, the United States announced that it would assist 72 more M777 howitzers with 144,000 rounds of ammunition. The above-mentioned 90 M777s are the heaviest equipment that the United States has aided in Ukraine so far. They are towed heavy artillery with a range of 24 kilometers. Although facing the Russian army with a high degree of mechanization and self-propelled howitzers, this number of M777s cannot reverse the Donbas war situation. However, under the action of the "digital artillery command system" exported by the United States, it can cause certain losses and damage to the Russian army.

To sum up, the strength of US military assistance is similar to its assessment of the war situation in Ukraine, which has experienced ups and downs from pessimism to "discovering opportunities". Observing the attitude of the United States in the face of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, long before the war broke out, it called on citizens to leave Ukraine as soon as possible, and even started planning to evacuate the embassy in Kyiv; at the beginning of the war, its assistance was mainly asymmetric combat weapons. This shows that the United States originally judged that the Ukrainian government may collapse soon after the war, and the Russian army is likely to end the war in a short period of time and gain a great battlefield advantage. In this situation, the United States does not have much room for military intervention, and there is no need to bear the possible risk of fighting with Russia.

Therefore, at the beginning of the war, the United States restrained the military resources it invested in Ukraine while watching the reaction of the Russian army. Of course, when the United States found that the Russian military was not progressing as expected, the "steel torrent" scene it imagined did not appear, and Ukraine showed a strong will to resist, and when the Western military assistance did not lead to a strong counterattack from Russia, Washington began some kind of "steel flood". "Military adventure", that is, raising the level of military aid to Ukraine without directly sending troops.

Shaping "Eastern Europe and Afghanistan", bloodletting Russia

And this move is mainly to serve the second strategic goal: to make the Russian army suffer losses in the process of advancing, even slow down the offensive, and concoct the trend and cognitive atmosphere that "Russia is repeating the plight of Afghanistan". As mentioned above, the armament assisted by the United States is not enough to reverse the situation on the battlefield, but it can give the Ukrainian army a certain counterattack capability under the background of intelligence information provided by NATO and the assistance of the digital command system, and form a certain countermeasure against the slow advancing Russian army. kill.

And as long as the war is prolonged and Ukraine's will to resist is not dissipated, Russia will not be able to declare the end of the special military operation, and Russian casualties will continue to accumulate. If things go on like this, the current high support of the Russian people for Vladimir Putin is likely to be shaken, and the Kremlin ruling group may also be severely divided because of this. Departments), business oligarchs, technocrats, etc., are also likely to get rid of the shackles of this system, brewing a "new political arrangement" in the post-Putin era, leading to the failure of Russia's original political control system and the outbreak of political turmoil.

In short, the reason why the United States has raised the level of military aid to Ukraine is not for the victory of Ukraine, let alone to expel the Russian army or help Ukraine to recover Crimea and Donbass; Washington's real plan is to use Ukraine as the stage , Continued military aid as a means, the US-Russia game as the goal, to create two strategic postures: first, the Ukrainian army has Western support, not soft persimmons but hard bones; second, the Russian army will repeat the Soviet Union's Afghan dilemma here. Trapped in the quagmire of a painful war.

Regardless of the real effect of this operation, whether Ukraine can really be re-armed by the outside world, and whether the Russian army will be trapped in the mire of war and be severely bled as mentioned above, the US will continue to "camp" , even if the above goals cannot be achieved 100%, it is necessary to create a "universal perception" in the global media and social networks, that is, to create a public impression that "Ukraine is becoming the new Afghanistan", and let this trend of public opinion revolve back into Russia. Influence public opinion and some key Moscow officials who have other plans, and then draw salaries from the bottom of the Putin regime.

However, although the "campaign" is a "big problem" to a certain extent, it is impossible to continue "creating something out of nothing", otherwise it will backfire on the past investment. At present, the United States is facing economic problems such as high inflation, but it still has to spend its budget to assist Ukraine, which is thousands of miles away. In the long run, it may cause internal noise and form budget resistance. Although the Lend-Lease Act has now passed, it is more of a post-mortem confirmation of the relevant military aid. Whether the United States can "generously contribute" until 2023 is still uncertain.

And even if the United States overcomes internal resistance and continues to provide military assistance, whether the equipment can be transported to the hands of the Ukrainian army is also a problem. In the first stage of the war, Russia would still be concerned about "political factors" such as negotiations between the two countries, and did not focus on attacking Ukraine's railway stations and bridges, so that foreign armaments continued to pour in from Lviv and other places to the front lines of the battlefield; After the start of the second stage of the Donbass campaign, the Russian army no longer tied its hands and feet, and began to attack the aforementioned targets, causing many Ukrainian troops to lag in supply. Under this circumstance, it remains to be seen whether all the 90 M777s, which are extremely difficult to hide, can be transported to the front line.

When it comes to the situation in Ukraine, although the United States tries to create an atmosphere of "Russia repeating the mistakes of Afghanistan", it may not be in line with the actual development of the war. In the first stage, the Russian army's direct insertion into Kyiv was not a purely tactical error, but a kind of "military opportunistic" adventure, that is, it wanted to use relatively low-cost military operations to intimidate Kyiv into signing an alliance under the city. However, judging from the results, Ukraine's will to resist is obviously beyond the Russian army's imagination, so there will be a second stage of military operations, which is to transfer to the Donbass for a large-scale battle. This move drastically changed the face of conflict.

First of all, the Russian army must face the Ukrainian defense line that Ukraine has been strengthening since 2014, and have a tragic confrontation with the elite Ukrainian soldiers. Even if Mariupol is won and the two flanks are rolled out, there are still many similar to the "Azov Steel Plant". The military fortress is waiting for the Russian army; on the other hand, the Russian army’s front and supply lines have been greatly shortened, but the Ukrainian army in the Donbas is in a logistical dilemma, and the Russian side is the hard bone of the Ukrainian defense line, in order to reduce casualties and losses, The "Stay Fighting" mode was chosen, which meant that the firepower was used to open the way, and then the heavy troops followed. This approach led to the failure of the tactics of the small units used by the Ukrainian army in the Kyiv theater at the beginning, so it was forced to start a frontal war of attrition with the Russian army.

In this case, the two ends of the game started a double-deck endurance race. The first is Russia and Ukraine. At present, both countries have suffered heavy casualties. However, in terms of the disparity in military strength between the two sides, unless NATO is willing to continuously and massively assist Ukraine with "practical" heavy weapons, such as at least M777 level or above, not Germany has been out of service for a long time. The inventory of "Cheetah" anti-aircraft tanks is only possible to play a key role in turning the tide of the battle. Otherwise, there is a high probability that the Ukrainian army will still be occupied by the Russian army after the bloody battle.

The second is the United States and Russia. Although the United States is currently increasing its military assistance to Ukraine, it may not be able to last for a long time, and I am afraid it will be difficult to increase the level of assistance. After all, Ukraine has a low victory rate, and all countries know it, and the goal of the United States is to keep Russia stuck here for a long time, and then shake Putin. However, if Moscow can persuade the domestic people with the relevant results and maintain political stability at the same time, the wishful thinking of the United States may fail. In other words, not only the United States will "camp", but Russia will also actively "camp". Only the Russian army will continue to take the initiative in the battlefield. Even if the progress is slow, it will have the opportunity to shape "time is on our side" and "protracted war against Nazism". Ongoing” atmosphere to avoid internal turmoil.

From the introduction of the Lend-Lease Act, the outside world has to glimpse the real plans of the United States in the Ukraine battlefield. But whether the conflict develops as expected, I am afraid it will take time to test.

Original article published at: "Lend-Lease Act" Bloodletting Russia: The United States is Creating "Two Trends" in Ukraine | Hong Kong 01 https://www.hk01.com/sns/article/768115