"NATO re-expansion" against the CSTO: Putin releases two signals

Since the development of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, although the ground battlefield is in Ukraine, the front lines are all over the world.

On May 15th, Finland officially announced that it would join NATO, followed by Sweden. Even though Turkey had expressed its opposition to the joining of Finland and Sweden on May 14th, it still did not hinder the willingness of both parties to apply, and officially submitted an application for membership on the 18th.

As of May 16, after many months of hesitation, the American restaurant chain McDonald’s finally officially announced its withdrawal from the Russian market; the French automaker Renault also announced on the same day that it had sold its assets in Russia and took over the The party is the Russian government.

The above changes reflect the new situational assessment of the Russian-Ukrainian war. For Sweden and Finland in northern Europe, whether to join NATO or not depends on their assessment of Russia's punishment. Finland, in particular, maintained its "Finnishization" policy during the Cold War because of the bloodshed of the two Soviet-Finnish wars. However, through the Russian-Ukrainian war, it found that Russia's battlefield performance was not as good as expected, and the expected value of punishment incurred by joining NATO also dropped. In short, what finally prompted Finland and Sweden to submit their applications to join NATO was not the "concern about Russian aggression" described by the outside world, but Russia's slow advance in the Ukrainian battlefield, which led the two countries to believe that the threat of the Russian military was not as good as before, so they wanted to. Try to break through the shackles of history.

For foreign companies such as McDonald's and Renault, the decision to withdraw from Russia at this time reflects their understanding that the war may be prolonged. When the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out on February 24, most of the outside world judged that the Kyiv regime would collapse quickly. This was the case in Russia, and the same in the United States and Europe. However, from the perspective of follow-up development, Ukraine's will to fight clearly exceeds the estimates of all parties. Some foreign companies that did not join sanctions at the beginning of the war originally planned to end this wave of confrontation and restore stability to the Russian market. However, as the conflict continued to stalemate, coupled with the prediction of the long-term war, he finally decided to survive.

And going through the above-mentioned situation, Russia is bound to make a statement and respond.

CSTO's speech responds to NATO's further expansion

On May 16, the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the Commonwealth of Independent States Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO, CSTO for short), a commemorative summit was held in Moscow, from Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan to Tajikistan, six member states of the organization. Leaders attended the meeting in person. After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020, the CSTO summits were all held by video, and leaders of various countries have not held face-to-face meetings for a long time. This reunion under the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is of special significance.

During the summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin not only briefed leaders of various countries on the progress of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine in a closed-door meeting, but also publicly stated that the CSTO plays an important stabilizing role in the "post-Soviet space". And NATO expansion "basically used as a tool of American foreign policy". It also draws attention to U.S. military-biological activities in "post-Soviet space", including Ukraine.

Regarding the fact that Finland and Sweden are applying to join NATO, Putin said that there is "no problem" between Russia and Finland and Sweden. Even if the two countries join NATO, they will not pose a threat to Moscow, but if NATO takes advantage of this to expand military facilities, it will undoubtedly triggering the necessary response from the Russian side.

At the same time, Putin also proposed granting the CIS countries CSTO observer status, and said that a series of CSTO joint military exercises will be held this autumn. On this issue, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin also said on May 15 that the CSTO "will expand". "We will soon see a change in the world order," he said. "The CSTO has shown its readiness and its state of peace. I think in a few years it will no longer be six countries, and maybe more countries will participate. to dozens."

After the summit, the CSTO issued a joint statement condemning the "forgery of historical events related to anti-Nazi aggression" and said that "we will continue to jointly resist any attempt to glorify the spread of Nazism and neo-Nazism", emphasizing that "reducing the tensions in Eurasia and confirm our readiness to create pragmatic cooperation with NATO.”

Two messages worth noting

During the CSTO summit during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia played a leading role. At the observation meeting, Putin spoke, and Russia's two major strategic attitudes are clearly visible.

First, in response to the issue that Finland and Sweden may join NATO, although Russia has repeatedly issued severe warnings and even stopped power transmission to Finland from May 14, it is obviously unwilling to open more military fronts. First, although Turkey expressed its opposition to the joining of NATO between Finland and Switzerland, it was more of a price stance, and hoped that the United States, Europe and Russia would "test their sincerity" for this purpose. As for the further expansion of northern Europe, Turkey's true position may not help. Russia solved the problem; secondly, Finland and Sweden were already at the edge of public opinion and had to make a move. Even if the application was rejected, their leaders had to show a positive attitude in order to meet the demands of internal public opinion.

Under this circumstance, if Russia has no will to really engage in fire with the Nordic countries, it can only draw a red line and unravel itself. Looking at what Putin said at the CSTO summit, the red line is "NATO expansion" to Finland and Sweden, not the two countries joining NATO. In other words, if Finland and Sweden only sign an agreement with NATO and obtain membership, Russia will not vigorously rebound; but if NATO begins to station troops in northern Europe, Russia is bound to counterattack.

This reminder is similar to Sweden's statement on the condition of joining NATO on May 15: not having a permanent NATO base or "nuclear weapons". On May 18, Sweden and Finland formally submitted their applications. The applications of the two countries must be unanimously approved by NATO member states before they can take effect. Although this process usually takes 8 to 12 months, in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, there are also The possibility of speeding up. Therefore, Putin's statement at the CSTO summit was aimed at gaining more strategic maneuvering space for Russia and avoiding another wave in northern Europe before the end of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Second, although Putin stated that he will not prevent Finland and Switzerland from joining NATO, he intends to continue to strengthen and strengthen the CSTO, which may also become a new front line to resist NATO's eastward expansion in the future.

Looking back at the evolution of the CSTO, it was originally led by Russia and established in 2002 as the National Security Cooperation Organization of the former Soviet Union. At first, it did not play a significant role, and with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, some functions have taken place in countering terrorism and strengthening regional security. overlapping. However, as the United States continued to export color revolutions under the banner of democratization, affecting Central Asia, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and other former Soviet Union regions, and after the Arab Spring, the Internet-linked street demonstration model emerged, and the CSTO began to evolve in nature. From the initial ineffectiveness, it has gradually grown into a veritable regional military alliance.

In 2007, CSTO members voted to pass two major resolutions. One was to agree to organize the creation of an exclusive peacekeeping force, which could be deployed under the authorization of the United Nations or within member states. Buy Russian weapons at the same price; from 2011, member states will be able to veto extraterritorial agreements to create new foreign military bases in CSTO member states; War and cyber warfare exercises; On January 5, 2022, in response to multiple riots such as the color revolution and terrorism in Kazakhstan, the CSTO sent troops into Kazakhstan for the first time to pacify the unrest.

From the above evolution, it can be seen that the active operation of the CSTO is closely related to the extraterritorial pressure exerted by the West, and it also responds to the rise of non-traditional security threats. This time Putin's statement to grant observer status to the CSTO of the CIS countries may be a signal for the next stage of the organization's evolution, that is, to resist the eastward expansion of NATO with the westward expansion of the CSTO. Now that Serbia is an observer of the CSTO, Russia may not rule out an invitation to Moldova and other countries. The future balance of power in Eurasia may be rewritten by this conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Original published URL:

2022.5.19

"NATO Re-Expansion" vs. CSTO: Putin Releases Two Signals | Hong Kong 01 https://www.hk01.com/sns/article/771618