Why is it wrong to compare Wuhan pneumonia with the American flu?

Since the outbreak of Wuhan pneumonia, I have always seen people comparing the number of infections and deaths of influenza in the United States. At first, they tried to explain that the influenza in the United States is much more serious. Recently, they have seen the argument that Wuhan pneumonia is not a serious infectious disease. , no need to panic. No matter what the argument is, it is actually completely fallacious in logic. However, many people think it makes sense, and even Liang Jianzhang, the founder of Ctrip, also holds this view (see Liang Jianzhang's "Looking at the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic from American Influenza Data" , so I will write an article to talk about why this analogy is wrong. of.

First of all, we admit that the American flu looks terrible in terms of the number of cases and deaths. According to the data listed by Liang Wen, there were 35,520,883 cases and 34,157 deaths in the United States in 2018-19 alone. This is indeed incomparable to the current Wuhan pneumonia. As of 11:51 on January 29, the number of confirmed cases nationwide is 6091, with 133 deaths. So many people died in the United States, but I didn’t see them quarantine and close the city because of the flu! What are we so nervous about? Does this mean that we can now happily go out for dinners, parties, movies, shopping malls, and even travel? Unfortunately, this comparison is wrong. Because if we want to correctly evaluate who is more harmful, influenza or pneumonia, we must put the two under the same conditions. Americans are almost completely laissez-faire about the flu, that is to say, there is no isolation of flu patients, let alone isolation of close contacts, no traffic control, no city closures, in short, basically nothing has been done. If we want to understand who is more harmful than the flu in Wuhan, we should naturally put it under the same conditions, that is, if we do nothing and let the new crown pneumonia spread everywhere, how many people will be infected, How many people died? I don’t know if there are any scholars who have established this model, but Liang Wen obviously did not do so. He compared the damage caused by the pneumonia in Wuhan, which has been strictly controlled, to the damage caused by the pneumonia in the United States, which has been completely let go. So this comparison is meaningless, and no useful conclusions can be drawn.

The second is about the panic among the people. Yes, the whole country is now taking various measures to control the epidemic. Obviously, if the virus does not undergo major mutations, at worst we can eliminate the new crown virus before June. Tens of thousands of people may end up sick and hundreds die. But overall the loss (illness and death) is not as great as the American flu, so why panic? If the first comparison ignores the social control conditions of influenza and the new crown, then the current comparison ignores the social cost. For the flu in the United States, its social cost is the sick person's one to two weeks' absence from school/work, treatment cost, and loss to society caused by the deceased. However, as far as Wuhan pneumonia is concerned, first of all, from a macro perspective, huge economic losses are unavoidable, and it may still be a disaster for many small and medium-sized business owners. Then from a micro level, individuals who have prepared various Spring Festival plans can only stay at home and read the epidemic news. The opportunity cost, time cost, and of course the economic cost they have paid for epidemic prevention. If you get sick, you have to pay more money, which adds to everyone's panic. Not to mention the discrimination against Wuhan people. The panic of the people is definitely not just because they are afraid of death, but the feeling of seeing their own interests being damaged but helpless. Not everyone can speak condescendingly like Liang Jianzhang. For many people living in this country, this new crown pneumonia may have ruined their jobs, their businesses, their families, their hopes... …

Therefore, ignoring the two key factors of social control conditions and social costs of prevention and control, it is of course a big mistake to only compare the prevalence and mortality of influenza in the United States and Wuhan pneumonia.

So how serious is Wuhan pneumonia now? For ordinary people, there is really no good way to judge. Because the information is opaque. Until today, Weibo and WeChat in mainland China are still busy deleting posts and banning accounts, and propaganda departments and public security agencies are still punishing those who spread rumors. As Wang Zhian said on Twitter , "I think so far, in the new crown pneumonia epidemic, The level of media coverage is far lower than during the SARS period. The environment for media coverage has not only not improved, but has gotten worse.” So in my opinion, as an ordinary person, the most important thing is to go out as little as possible, wash your hands frequently, protect yourself and your family, and work hard to tide over the difficulties.