Chongxi? ——The reason why the Tokyo Olympics "must be held"

As the first democratic country in Asia after the war, the maturity of the Japanese people is also reflected in the fact that they will not indulge in abstract patriotic discourses such as promoting national prestige because of the grand narrative of the government, but have the courage to express their dissatisfaction with the government's policies. .

The Tokyo Olympics are "a must" because:

1. Reduce economic losses, even if there is no audience, the economic effect will be less than 10%;

2. Endow the people of Japan and the world with "courage", and send a positive signal to overcome difficulties for those suffering from the epidemic through the spirit of hard work, enterprising and cooperation displayed by the athletes in the arena;

3. Athletes train for four years and provide a platform for the Olympic Games, which is of positive significance to the world sports cause and the promotion of human health.

4. Yoshihide Suga, who has a lackluster performance, is likely to hold the House of Representatives elections and the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election after the Olympics and before the end of September. It is logical to use the successful hosting of the Olympic Games to "rejoice" and increase the winning rate.

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Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, various surveys in Japan so far have shown that the proportion of support for the continuation of the Tokyo Olympics is far lower than the data against (including suspension and postponement). However, after experiencing the setback of the one-year postponement of the Tokyo Olympics, Yoshihide Suga did not hesitate to stand on the opposite side of public opinion, and ignored the "worries" of the Emperor of Japan, and insisted on "doing it". What is it for?

Why do mainstream public opinion in Japan oppose the continuation of the Olympics?

However, the Yoshihide Suga government has not taken the initiative to make a clear explanation to the people on the reasons for the "must do it" of the East Olympics. It only uses abstract concepts such as "Peace no Rites" (peace events) and "bonds" (bonds). Prevarication. The famous judo master Kayama Yamaguchi, a former director of the Japanese Olympic Committee, recently accepted an exclusive interview with the "Asahi Shimbun" (published on June 23), pointing out that "the Olympics claim to be a peace festival, however, the Olympic Games are held, and the world will not be peaceful because of this. . In order to achieve peace, shouldn't we have dialogue and seek consensus with people who disagree? Who is the Olympic Games that abandoned the people?"

Such an "irresponsible" response by the Yoshihide Suga government has naturally caused more social elites to look down. On July 2, just three weeks before the opening of the Tokyo Olympics, Japan's well-known sociologist Chizuru Ueno and famous writer Keiko Ochiai convened a total of 13 high-profile cultural figures, including thinker Uchida Ki, non-fiction Writer Hisae Sawachi, journalist Haruna Miyano, etc., jointly published a petition submitted to IOC President Bach, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, and Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike, criticizing "the Japanese government and the Olympic organizers have not agreed on how to implement the" I will explain it with the slogan of "Safety and Peace of Mind"", and use the heavy words of "the tyranny of history" to denounce the government's arrogance in disregarding the safety of people at home and abroad.

At the same time, Chizuru Ueno and others also launched a call for the cancellation of the Tokyo Olympic Games on the international joint online platform " change.org " from the same day. Kenji Utsunomiya, the former president of the Japan Bar Association, also launched a joint signature requesting the suspension of the Tokyo Olympics under the theme "Cancel the Tokyo Olympics to protect our lives". Previously, more than 400,000 people who were close to the target (500,000) had signed up.

It is no less than a social elite. As the first democratic country in Asia after the war, the maturity of the Japanese people is also reflected in the fact that they will not indulge in abstract patriotic discourses such as promoting national prestige because of the grand narrative of the government. Express dissatisfaction with government policies. On June 28, less than a month before the opening of the Olympic Games, the Asahi Shimbun released a poll of Tokyo residents for the East Olympics. The results showed that 38% of the respondents agreed that "it should be held this summer", 33% "should be suspended", " Re-deferred" was 27%. In other words, 60% are still opposed to the continuation of the Olympic Games. As for the situation where there is no other option but to continue, 30% think that "the audience should be restricted", while the "should be held without audience" is twice as high as 64%. The attitude of the Japanese nationals as taxpayers towards Dongao is clear at a glance.

Reducing economic losses "doing better than not"

In the face of these successive voices against the continuation of the East Olympics, the Yoshihide Suga government is obviously unmoved. So what is the reason for the Japanese government's insistence on "doing it"?

First of all, from an economic point of view, reducing the huge fiscal deficit caused by the suspension should be the most realistic consideration for the Yoshihide Suga government. According to the calculation of Japan’s Nomura Research Institute, the economic effect of holding the Olympic Games normally is 1.81 trillion yen (about 126.6 billion Hong Kong dollars). In the second half of the month, the restriction that the audience at the venue should not exceed 50% of the capacity and the total number of people should not exceed 10,000, the loss was only 89.4 billion yen, or about 6.2 billion Hong Kong dollars (the economic effect was about 1.72 trillion yen, or about 120.4 billion Hong Kong dollars); Even if it is "held without audience", the loss is only 146.8 billion yen, or about 10.3 billion Hong Kong dollars (the economic effect is about 1.66 trillion yen, or about 116.3 billion Hong Kong dollars). In other words, based on the judgment of reducing economic losses, the conclusion that "doing it better is better than not doing it" should be the primary consideration for the Japanese government to continue hosting the Olympics.

Second, giving "courage" to the people of Japan and the world should be another major consideration for the Japanese government to insist on continuing. Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in early 2020, it has ravaged the world. Not only did Japan suffer from it, but the global human race is still shrouded in the haze of the unpredictable epidemic. The Olympic Games, as the largest human activity in the world's cooperation, can not get rid of the trouble of the spread of the virus, but still through the spirit of hard work, enterprising and cooperation displayed by the athletes in the arena, to overcome the epidemic for people suffering from the epidemic. This is a positive signal of difficulty, and I believe this should be the main reason why the International Olympic Committee agreed to renew the Olympic Games in Tokyo this year.

More than that, the continuation of the Tokyo Olympics is not only a great encouragement to players who have been preparing for a long time under the epidemic, but also stimulates the enthusiasm of the Japanese people and the people of the world for sports, and will also bring positive stimulation to the sports industry.

Yoshihide Suga's Election Considerations in the Post-Eastern Olympics Election

Third, whether and how to hold the Olympics has inevitably become a factor for Yoshihide Suga and the ruling party's election considerations. At present, due to the response to the epidemic and the approaching opening day of the Olympic Games, there are not many topics in the Japanese media about the election in the second half of this year. However, the term of office of Yoshihide Suga’s party president ends at the end of September, and the term of members of the House of Representatives also expires on October 21, but it is also an unavoidable political agenda. Out of respect for constitutionalism, Japan should not follow Hong Kong's example of postponing the election for "at least one year".

In other words, it should be Yoshihide Suga's plan to successfully hold the Olympics and take advantage of the positive effects of the Olympics to increase the capital for winning the election. In this way of thinking, the Prime Minister's official residence should be inclined to hold a general election before the presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party, and then take advantage of the momentum of the House of Representatives to win the presidential election and be re-elected (the prime minister and the president). It is true that it is still unknown whether Yoshihide Suga's wishful thinking will work.

Since he became prime minister after Shinzo Abe for about 10 months in September last year, Yoshihide Suga's political performance has been lackluster, his response to the epidemic has been a mess, and the vaccination rate is the lowest among the G7 (Group of Seven Industrial Nations), and economic growth has also been affected by it. . In addition, in the three by-elections at the national level held on April 25, including two by-elections in Hokkaido District 2 of the House of Representatives, two by-elections in Nagano of the Senate, and the re-election of the Senate in Hiroshima, all the ruling parties were defeated (or no one was elected). In this context, Yoshihide Suga's support has been declining. According to the poll results released by the Japan Broadcasting Association (NHK) on June 14, the disapproval rate of the cabinet led by Yoshihide Suga reached a record high of 45%, and the approval rate was 37%. The Liberal Democratic Party's Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections held yesterday were also less than ideal. The report pointed out that the Liberal Democratic Party and its partner Komeito are expected to fail to win more than half of the seats.

It is self-evident that Yoshihide Suga expects the "Chongxi" effect from Dongao. With the increase in vaccination rates and the approaching opening day of the Olympics, it is normal for cabinet support to pick up in the future. However, the repeated and unpredictable epidemic has brought many uncontrollable uncertainties to the East Olympics all the time, and also added difficulties one after another to the first-line organizers. Undoubtedly, for the Yoshihide Suga government, forcibly holding the Olympics is undoubtedly a big gamble.

"Mencius" has a saying: "The people are the most valuable, the society is the second, and the ruler is the light." Under the epidemic situation, going against the will of the people and forcibly holding the Olympics, if it is just a bet on Yoshihide Suga's political life, it should still be a trivial matter. However, if Japan were to detonate a more serious epidemic due to the East Olympics, it would be no small matter if the health and safety of its citizens and players at home and abroad were bet.

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As the first democratic country in Asia after the war, the maturity of the Japanese people is also reflected in the fact that they will not indulge in abstract patriotic discourses such as promoting national prestige because of the grand narrative of the government, but have the courage to express their dissatisfaction with the government's policies. .

The Tokyo Olympics are "a must" because:

1. Reduce economic losses, even if there is no audience, the economic effect will be less than 10%;

2. Endow the people of Japan and the world with "courage", and send a positive signal to overcome difficulties for those suffering from the epidemic through the spirit of hard work, enterprising and cooperation displayed by the athletes in the arena;

3. Athletes train for four years and provide a platform for the Olympic Games, which is of positive significance to the world sports cause and the promotion of human health.

4. Yoshihide Suga, who has a lackluster performance, is likely to hold the House of Representatives elections and the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election after the Olympics and before the end of September. It is logical to use the successful hosting of the Olympic Games to "rejoice" and increase the winning rate.