The merger of Ethereum has been successfully completed, why is the price still falling all the way, and it is said that holding Ethereum will make you rich?

hot spot

At 14:43 on September 15, 2022, Beijing time, as the last POW block was dug out by Fish Pool, the Ethereum merger finally came to fruition. Buterin realized the POS promise he wrote in the Ethereum white paper in 2014, despite the fact that Ethereum It is not the first POS public chain, and Buterin is not the first person to propose a POS consensus, but no one can deny that POS has truly become mainstream because of Ethereum. Take a look at the hot public chain projects SOL, DOT, ADA, AVAX, MATIC Wait, which is not the POS consensus, and the significance of this merger of Ethereum is that Ethereum is already the most successful public chain project in the world, but it still takes the risk of switching to POS, which also confirms the superiority of POS. After the merger, ETH did not go out of the skyrocketing market as everyone imagined, and even fell a lot, but I believe that this is just a short-term profit flight, and only this part of the speculative funds will leave the market to usher in the real There will be the most important Shanghai upgrade in the next few months. At that time, Ethereum 2.0 will reveal its real value to the world, so don’t worry about the current price fluctuations of Ethereum, it will definitely not disappoint you in the long run.

As for the macro market, as inflation and interest rates rise, the confidence of CEOs of large U.S. companies has fallen to a two-year low. The report from the U.S. Business Roundtable showed that the CEO Economic Outlook Index slipped 11.4 points to 84.2 in the third quarter. Respondents were less optimistic about their company's sales, capital spending and hiring over the next six months. Those metrics have fallen for the third straight quarter. CEOs cut their forecast for U.S. economic growth this year to 2.3 percent from 3.2 percent, the survey showed.

The major institutions on Wall Street have given their latest views on the market. There are pessimists and optimists. The most pessimistic is the founder of Bridgewater, Ray Dalio, who believes that the interest rate may reach 4.5%-6% by the end of the year, because now The interest rate is 2.5%, so this forecast is based on the lowest 4.5%, and it has to go through 100 basis points in September and 50 basis points in November and December. If the Fed does this, the market is likely to collapse. , according to Dalio’s forecast, the US service will fall by 20%​. In addition, Nomura Securities is also quite pessimistic. They support raising interest rates by 100 basis points in September. Of course, there are also optimists. The most optimistic is Mrs. Mutou from arkk. Even her optimism already makes people feel like a dream. The interest rate should be raised by 25 basis points, otherwise it will bring deflation to the market, and this guy also defends his words with actions. These days, he has been frantically buying technology stocks, and some hedge funds and Xiaosan have also followed the wood. Sister is frantically buying dips.

In addition, JPMorgan Chase chief economist Michael Feroli pointed out in a report just published that the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates by 100 basis points at next week's meeting on interest rates. His reasoning is that raising rates by 100 basis points means the Fed's benchmark rate will eventually reach 5% or higher, and now tightening the brakes on monetary policy may in turn increase the Fed's efforts to cut rates in 2023. The operation will make the Fed's job of lowering inflation more difficult.​

I personally think that raising interest rates by 75 basis points three times in a row is already the most ruthless combination of interest rate hikes in history. If the boundary line of 75 is exceeded, many things and emotions will become uncontrollable, so even if this September's rate hike 75 basis points is not enough, the Fed can continue to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in November to limit inflation, instead of directly letting the market fend for itself by 100 basis points, so there is a high probability of 75 basis points in September, and under the current public opinion conditions, increase The interest rate of 75 basis points will become a positive event, let's see on September 22.

After the completion of the Ethereum merger, several major institutions have launched NFTs to commemorate the successful merger, and they are all free mint, including A16z's Ethereum merger commemorative NFT "Proof-of-Merge" and consensys' the merge, in which the Merge can have unlimited mint, so there may be a lot of brushes, so focus on a16z's nft, the URL can be found on my twitter.

South Korea's Seoul South District Prosecutor's Office today asked the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to impose administrative sanctions on five people including Terra founder Do Kwon and forcibly cancel their passports. According to the country's passport law, among those who have issued an arrest warrant, the issuance or replacement of a passport can be refused, or an order for the return of the passport can be issued to those who are abroad.

​According to Glassnode data, the number of addresses holding more than 32 ETH reached 121,663, a 20-month high​.

BeaconScan data shows that the number of Ethereum beacon chain nodes is close to 430,000, and the current number of nodes is 428,299, an increase of 35% in the past five months.

Quotes

BTC: Bitcoin was stunned by the CPI, and it has been an adjustment trend for the past two days. This trend will continue because the market urgently needs confidence, and the current lack of confidence can only be adjusted weakly.

At the 4-hour level, the bottom support is near 19500, and the top resistance is near 21800 and 22500. No matter how the market changes, you must remember that the current best trading strategy is to invest.​

ETH: The trend after the merger is still the same as what I predicted yesterday. Let’s make a wave first. Many speculative funds don’t pay attention to the long-term value of Ethereum, but just come to enjoy the benefits of the fork, so the market continued to fall after today’s snapshot. It should be caused by the flight of this part of the funds, and the reason why we have been able to stay in the market for several years is because of our firm belief and continuous pursuit of technological innovation. Although there is no substantial favorable time for Ethereum to POS, but All the benefits of Ethereum in the future are based on the success of this merger, so there is still a long way to go for Ethereum, and the ceiling of Ethereum after this merger is also higher, so don’t pay too much attention to short-term fluctuations, In the long run, Ethereum will definitely realize its value. I don’t think there are too many copycats in this market that can outperform Ethereum.

LDO: The biggest beneficiary of this Ethereum merger is LDO. Even if ETC has skyrocketed several times due to the merger, I don’t think it can be compared with LDO, because LDO has 30% of the ETH pledge nodes. After the merger, LDO is Ethereum's largest mining pool is similar to the previous Bitmain on Bitcoin, and LDO has more advantages than Bitmain in that ETH is a public chain that is really used by many people, and the MEV generated in the process of public chain interaction The value is in the tens of billions level, which means that the LDO protocol can earn 30% of the MEV income, these are all extra, and as the largest mining pool itself can capture the most ETH rewards, so this time I know why The trend of LDO is so fierce. Even though LDO has risen for a few waves, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the ​FDV of $1.8 billion.​

[Disclaimer] The above content does not constitute any investment advice. According to the relevant documents of the "Risk Warning on Preventing Illegal Fund Raising in the Name of [Virtual Currency] [Blockchain]" issued by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and other five departments in August 2018, please Look at the blockchain rationally, and don’t blindly trust others. The digital asset market is extremely volatile and risky, and you need to be highly cautious when entering the market.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, put an end to the full-cow stud, and refuse loan leverage.