Interest rate hikes, inflation? Retail investors don't care anymore, and now they just need to follow the trend of the US dollar index in the opposite direction!

hot spot

The current market rules are becoming clearer and clearer, that is, the US stock market, the currency market and the US dollar index are right in the opposite direction. No matter how hawkish Powell's speech last night, how strong the determination to fight inflation, the market will no longer I bought it. The CME Fed observed that the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points in the latest September has risen to 84%. Investors should have accepted this reality, that is, at the end of the year, they will add 75, 50, and 25 three times. Since this The expectations are already so bad, let's just stop leveraging the interest rate hike, so investors use the trend of the US dollar index as a new reference. Last night, the US dollar index fell by 1% in the day, so the US stocks and currency markets have gone out. In a wave of market conditions, the Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow all rose by around 0.6%. The big cake also stood at the 20,000 mark again at noon today, and my aunt also broke through 1,700. However, I still want to remind everyone that the current The market is still rebounding. Although Ethereum is expected to merge, it can be seen from the TVL data on the chain and the gas usage rate that the market has not fully recovered, and the capital leverage rate cannot rise, so the funds for pulling the disk are always limited. Yes, so we have to continue to observe when we can get out of the bear market.

The European Central Bank announced a rate hike of 75 basis points last night, in line with market expectations. It was the first substantial rate hike of 75 basis points since 1999. The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 0.750% and its benchmark rate to 1.250%.

Yesterday’s earnings and the devaluation of the U.S. dollar also included the crude oil market. I have always said that the market is unpredictable. I remember that two weeks ago, the crypto market had a negative correlation with the crude oil market to a large extent, because the crude oil market represented this inflation level at that time. But now the currency market has gone up and down with the crude oil market. The reason is exactly what I said above. Now investors no longer pay too much attention to inflation, because the Fed's attitude is already obvious, even if the CPI data in August fell. , but in order to reverse the rebound in inflation, interest rates will continue to rise, so in this case, the inflation data does not matter, and although the crude oil market has shown a wave of muscles in OPEC+ production cuts a few days ago, due to the progress of Iran negotiations, Europe The deadline for U.S. sanctions on Russian crude oil (December 5) is approaching, especially since Europe is already in urgent need of Russian natural gas, so the future supply of crude oil is still a variable, which is why it has continued to weaken recently.

IMF economists Daniel Leigh and Prachi Mishra and Johns Hopkins University economics professor Laurence Ball recently predicted that the U.S. economy is unlikely to eventually achieve a soft landing in the context of continued interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Fed policymakers' expectations of "inflation returning to target and unemployment not exceeding 4%" are only justified under fairly optimistic assumptions. And to end the high inflation in the US, the US unemployment rate may need to reach 7.5%, which is equivalent to twice the current level. In this context, about 6 million Americans will be unemployed, so when this data soars, then the Fed may Turn around and consider rate cuts​.

CPI data for August will be released next Tuesday, and economists forecast a rise of 8.1% year-on-year, down from 8.5% in July. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also said that the drop in gasoline prices will be reflected in the next US CPI report. It is optimistic that the high inflation problem in the United States will further ease, however, risks (upside inflation) still exist.

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler last night expressed support for the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to regulate BTC. Regulating Bitcoin has not always been what the SEC pursues. What he really wants is to be under his control except for Bitcoin. The SEC has established a new Office of Cryptocurrency Disclosure​, and Sima Zhao’s heart is well known.

Yesterday Fed Chairman Powell mentioned stablecoins, he believes that unsecured cryptocurrencies do not provide much public benefit in payment, it is a speculative asset, stablecoins need to be properly regulated, stablecoins can play a role in our financial system, We need legislation to solve the (Stablecoin) problem.

The U.S. sanctions on TORN finally have a justice messenger standing up. A total of 6 people, including two coinbase employees, recently filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas over the Treasury Department’s decision to put Tornado Cash on the sanctions list. Coinbase Officials said they would provide financial support for the lawsuit. This time I can give CB a thumbs up.

​

Quotes

BTC: Bitcoin has a deep V at the 4-hour level. I have been saying recently that this trend is too much like a cyclical bottom trend. Repeatedly verify the support level, let the market fully recognized the position to obtain support, and then with a high probability It will rebound, and the rebound will continue to fall to verify. Periodic bottoms will be washed repeatedly, so such large periodic bottoms are not suitable for bands and are more suitable for fixed investment.

If the 4-hour level can currently stand near 19800, there is a high probability that it will rebound in the past few days, and then there may be a pull-up action after the end of the interest rate hike. So in any case, the most effective strategy when opening a regular investment.

ETH: Another day of rebound. Yesterday I said that before the merger, there is no need to worry about the market of Ethereum. Whether the merger is successful or unsuccessful, there is no need to worry about funds coming in for speculation, and there are new forked coins, and there are new stories to tell. , so in addition to long-term holding, the current aunt is also a speculator's paradise. Several traditional investment groups I have been following recently are also paying attention to the merger of Ethereum every day. They may not know anything about the currency circle, but the mentality of gamblers also needs to be Come in to get a share of the pie, so short-term Ethereum is a very good investment target, but as I said before, the current data on Ethereum’s face tells us that the amount of funds in the currency circle is not enough to create a big bull market, so short-term also If you want to find a take profit point, it doesn’t matter if you are long-term, and the spot Ethereum is worth holding for a long time.

ATOM: Many students may not know that Luna was only a hub of Astro before its rise, that is, Luna itself was the side chain of atom, so he was only Astro's younger brother before making stablecoins. Of course, the valuation was also affected by There are huge restrictions, and since the birth of UST, the market value of LUNA is more than 10 times higher than that of Astro, and the restrictions on LUNA-UST are thunderstorms, so the best choice for many ecological projects and funds is Astro. , and today Delphi Labs announced that it will turn to research and development of the Cosmos ecosystem. In fact, people in the circle have already guessed it, but considering the huge traffic and fans of LUNA and L​UNC, atom naturally soared into the sky. .

[Disclaimer] The above content does not constitute any investment advice. According to the relevant documents of the "Risk Warning on Preventing Illegal Fund Raising in the Name of [Virtual Currency] [Blockchain]" issued by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and other five departments in August 2018, please Look at the blockchain rationally, and don’t blindly trust others. The digital asset market is extremely volatile and risky, and you need to be highly cautious when entering the market.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, put an end to the full-cow stud, and refuse loan leverage.