Bitcoin Market Analysis (September 9, 2022)

[Latest News] Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that decisive and forceful actions on inflation are needed and that we must continue to move forward until the task of fighting inflation is completed, saying that the Fed's job is to ensure that inflation expectations are anchored at 2% and are ready to be adjusted according to economic needs. Reduce table size. Fed's "Eagle King" Bullard, Chicago Fed President Evans also said that reducing inflation to 2% is the Fed's primary goal. Evans thinks the Fed is likely to raise rates by 75 basis points in September.

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits in the week to September 3 recorded 222,000, a new low since the week of May 28, 2022. It is expected to be 240,000, and the previous value was 2.322 million.

There is no suspense to say that the current market has accepted the expectation of raising interest rates by 75 basis points, so we will not continue to worry about whether the interest rate hike is 75 basis points, or fantasy 50. What we should pay more attention to is what the current market expects next. It can be hyped, and what other events will affect the market trend.

Recession expectations have been a hot topic of discussion on Wall Street, and the question now facing the Fed is how high it will raise interest rates to control inflation so high today, and whether the economy will slip into recession when inflation is under control. In terms of the entire logic chain, raising interest rates is to cool the labor market and control inflation. Research has already suggested that the unemployment rate may have to double from its current level of 3.7% to reliably push inflation back down. So a recession is already a real risk right now.

In addition to the economic recession speculation, there is also a slowdown in raising interest rates. In September, the interest rate will be raised by 75 basis points, then the interest rate will be raised by 50 basis points in November and 25 basis points in December, and then by 2023 next year, the Fed will give The market has been vaccinated and will not start cutting interest rates easily, so there is a high probability of continuing to raise interest rates next year, but the pace will be slower.

CPI data for August will be released next Tuesday, and economists forecast a rise of 8.1% year-on-year, down from 8.5% in July.

Recently, the morning paper has mentioned Gitcoin donation one after another. I don’t know if you have studied it carefully. In fact, this is also a relatively good mining project platform, so everyone should study it carefully. Today, I will briefly talk about the 15th project.

DefiLlama: It mainly focuses on TVL data analysis of DeFi projects. This statistical website is believed to be used by everyone during the bull market.

ChainEye: A full-chain analysis tool. Currently, there is BridgeEye, a cross-chain bridge price comparison tool, and functions such as on-chain and CEX transfer fee query On-Chain&CEX transfer fee. Currently, this project has entered the grant of a16z on Gticoin.

Umbra: It is a set of simple standard protocols to realize secret transfers on the Ethereum chain through smart contracts.

SyncSwap: MatterLabs centralizes DEXs on zkSync 2.

Philand.xyz: is a metaverse created by ENS and wallet addresses to visualize on-chain identities and incentivize users to interact with the WEB3 protocol.

MetaMail: EthShanghai22 Hackathon Gold Award Project, Web3's idea mail provider.

There are actually a lot of projects in it, so everyone should study it carefully. If there are any good ones, I will tell you in the morning paper. At the same time, everyone must pay more attention to my Twitter. Generally, I will post important information on Twitter as soon as possible. For example, airdrops, such as the whitelist of some projects, and so on.

Bessemer Venture Partners, a global venture capital firm, announced that its 12th flagship fund, BVP XII, has closed a $3.85 billion financing round and will strengthen seed and early-stage investments in deep tech, fintech, consumer and healthcare companies. In March of this year, Bessemer Venture Partners said it planned to invest $250 million in Web3 and launched the Web3 community BessemerDAO. It is reported that Bessemer Venture Partners has invested in Web2 giants such as Shopify, LinkedIn, and Pinterest, and has also invested in Web3 projects such as MakersPlace, Sorare, and TRM Labs.

According to people familiar with the matter, the U.S. Treasury Department will submit a work report recommending that the federal government move forward with the issuance of a digital dollar and propose potential ideas for designing a digital dollar.

International financial regulators are trying to dabble in DeFi, but are divided on whether it can be done simply by extending current norms. Recently, Morten Bech, head of the Swiss Innovation Center, wrote in an article that “DeFi needs to instill more trust, and cryptocurrency insiders are taking advantage of users’ inexperience” scams such as front-running traders and price manipulation. Martin Moloney, Secretary General of the International Group of Securities Commissions (Iosco) said, “If DeFi can replicate financial products, it can also replicate other characteristics of financial markets, in particular the ability of DeFi to develop interconnections that could threaten system-wide stability,” such as The failure of the Anchor Protocol, which is based on the Terra blockchain protocol, stated that “our goal is to develop a basic, internationally applicable framework based on principles and recommendations for the management of encrypted digital asset activity that mimics financial products.” Fernando Restoy, president of the Financial Stability Institute, said that crypto has problems, such as software bugs or over-collateralized collateral, that don't exist in traditional finance, and "relying on 'same activity, same regulation' is not an option. Sensible". In the current period of turmoil in the crypto market, regulators are all looking to avoid a repeat of the 2008 financial market crisis.

[Market Analysis] Bitcoin has a deep V at the 4-hour level. I have been saying recently that this trend is too much like a cyclical bottom trend. Repeatedly verify the support level, let the market fully recognized the position to obtain support, and then There is a high probability that it will rebound, and the rebound will continue to fall for verification. Periodic bottoms will be washed repeatedly, so such large periodic bottoms are not suitable for bands and are more suitable for fixed investment.

If the 4-hour level can currently stand near 19800, there is a high probability that it will rebound in the past few days, and then there may be a pull-up action after the end of the interest rate hike. So in any case, the most effective strategy when opening a regular investment.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, put an end to the full-cow stud, and refuse loan leverage.