OPEC cuts production → oil prices rise, currency prices fall! Lifting Iran sanctions → oil prices plummeted, so Iran is the savior of the currency circle?

hot spot

The much-anticipated ministerial meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) will be held tonight, which is said to discuss reducing oil production capacity to support falling oil prices, stimulated by the news these two days Crude oil prices have also rebounded. Although the negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal have not ended, the old and the United States have not thought about whether to release Iranian oil. However, according to the news from Iran, if an agreement is finally reached, the country can Increase production from the current 2.6 million barrels per day to 3.8 million barrels per day within a month and continue to increase to 4 million barrels per day in the near future, which may reduce oil prices by another $10-15 per barrel in the short term , I estimate that this result is unwilling to see Saudi Arabia and other countries, so it is not ruled out that OPEC will preemptively cut production to promote oil prices, or set a cap and other 'soft production cuts' measures as alternatives, no matter which of the two solutions comes out. , the oil price may have a good rebound. I said before that the current oil price is almost synonymous with inflation, so the oil price and the price of encrypted assets are negatively correlated. Today, the continuous fall of the currency market should also be related to the opec meeting, so This can be watched.

Let’s talk about the U.S. stock market. Taking history as a guide, September is usually the worst month for U.S. stocks throughout the year, especially in September this year, which is facing interest rate hikes. Although the latest CME’s forecast of a 75 basis point interest rate hike has been reduced to 55%, this It is still a high probability event, so experienced investors will switch from growth stocks to defensive, energy and dividend stocks. This is consistent with the previous advice to investors from JPMorgan Chase. They believe that the best investment strategy now is defensive, and It is recommended to sell encrypted assets​. According to historical experience, September in the currency circle is also extremely brutal. There are two calendar-level policies of 94 and 924. Therefore, the currency market in September must be more careful.

Recently, the Federal Reserve Research Institute released two new papers discussing the issue of crypto ecological regulation and its related impact on the traditional financial system. The paper points out that, where appropriate, oversight, requiring greater transparency, and capital and liquidity requirements can improve the resilience of entities in the digital asset ecosystem, conditions that current centralized exchanges are generally not subject to. In addition, with regard to systemic risks, it concluded that although the encrypted ecosystem is prone to "financial loopholes", because the digital asset ecosystem does not provide core financial services for the time being and has limited relevance to the traditional financial system, there is currently no systemic risk. It can be seen from this report of the Federal Reserve that the Federal Reserve has no plan to kill DEFI for the time being. At least in the short term, the old United States still encourages financial innovation.

Yesterday, Pan Zhibiao, founder and CEO of Poolin mining pool, posted on social media in response to the recent “difficulty in withdrawing coins”, saying that the situation was caused by a lack of liquidity, and the funds were safe​. This set of rhetoric is basically a set of words before running away. According to my guess, this mining pool should be in a thunderstorm, and the currency is also printed on PayPal's financial management. Since PayPal has been in a thunderstorm, this coin Yin should not be able to run away. We have recently been mining, financial management, or trading on small platforms. Try to bring them up. Binance is no longer safe, not to mention small exchanges and mining pools.

Coinbase Chief Legal Officer paulgrewal.eth said on his social platform that he believes the US law is very clear: nothing will compel anyone among miners, stakers or lawyers to monitor or censor transactions. The implication is that there is no need to worry about POS nodes being subject to protocol-level censorship or restrictions on miner behavior.

According to L2BEAT data, the current total lock-up volume of Ethereum Layer 2 has risen to $5.24 billion, an increase of 1.54% on the 7th. Among them, the top five locked positions are:

Arbitrum ($2.66 billion, up 5.21% on the 7th);

Optimism ($1.55 billion, down 2.54% on the 7th);

dYdX ($474 million, down 5.53% on the 7th);

Loopring ($171 million, up 5.75% on the 7th);

Metis Andromeda ($132 million, down 1.58% on the 7th)

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BTC: Bitcoin’s weekly level, combined with binance and coinbase, last week’s closing line was accompanied by the heavy volume at the bottom. Of course, binance is exaggerated. The bottom of CB’s heavy volume is more realistic. The data for the past few months is pretty good. After nearly 10 months of weekly decline, the current weekly line is expected to come out of a double bottom structure. The previous bottom was confirmed at 19,000 in mid-June this year. Then this is the second re-confirmation. If it is supported by the weekly level, then the market outlook is expected to start a rebound mode. If it is not supported for a long time, then there is a high probability that it will be recognized by the market in the form of a pin to gain support.

At the 4-hour level, there are currently 4 effective supports. After the market directly fell below the previous strong support of 21,000 on August 27, it did not continue to fall after hitting the lowest level of 19,500, but continued to challenge near this position, out of 4 In the form of sub-effective support, the market will panic after falling below the previous long-term support, which will trigger a continuous wave of selling and cause the price to continue to fall. However, the current trend is not like this. The market is already relatively low. Second, after 10 months of continuous decline and turmoil, the unstable chips have been accepted by the market. Therefore, if there is no major external negative in the current position, it is difficult to continue to decline. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate, and there will be upward Signs of a rebound, but don't expect too much, as the macro level was not optimistic throughout September.

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ETH: Ethereum continues to trade in the broader market today, although the general trend is down, but considering the upcoming merger event and fork, Ethereum still has enough support in the short term, so short-term operations are still possible, but from the data From the above, Ethereum should not be too high in the short term, because the TVL and GAS data have not significantly improved. These two data are very important for Ethereum. TVL represents the capital leverage ratio of the market, and GAS is the activity level of Ethereum. Therefore, the current Ethereum is more like Bitcoin than a smart contract platform, so the ceiling will be restricted, but in the long run, Ethereum is still the first choice for encryption innovation, and long-term positions are recommended to be retained.

[Disclaimer] The above content does not constitute any investment advice. According to the relevant documents of the "Risk Warning on Preventing Illegal Fund Raising in the Name of [Virtual Currency] [Blockchain]" issued by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and other five departments in August 2018, please Look at the blockchain rationally, and don’t blindly trust others. The digital asset market is extremely volatile and risky, and you need to be highly cautious when entering the market.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, put an end to the full-cow stud, and refuse loan leverage.