Bitcoin Market Analysis (September 5, 2022)

[Yesterday's resumption] This week is still a relatively critical week, because Powell will lead a group of officials to deliver a speech this week. This is also the last speech in the silence period. It is expected to release some signals of interest rate hikes in September.

At 22:00 on Wednesday evening, Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech on the US economy and monetary policy. At 23:55, Fed Vice Chairman Brainard delivered a speech. At 0:55 on Thursday, Fed Vice Chairman Brainard spoke on the outlook for the U.S. economy. At 21:10, Fed Chairman Powell participated in a meeting on monetary policy organized by the Cato Institute. Among them, the speeches of Fed Chairman Powell and Vice Chairman Brainard will be the highlight of the week, and Wall Street will carefully weigh whether these remarks are evidence that interest rates may be raised by another 75 basis points, or whether the pace of interest rate hikes has fallen back to 50 basis points. space.

The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 315,000 after a seasonally adjusted August, the smallest increase since April 2021; the U.S. unemployment rate rose for the first time in five months. After the non-farm payrolls data, fed funds futures showed that the market lowered bets on the Fed to raise interest rates. U.S. President Joe Biden believes that the U.S. job market remains strong, more Americans are finding jobs, and he also sees signs that U.S. inflation is beginning to ease. The U.S. Labor Secretary also said that inflation is heading in the right direction. U.S. factory orders recorded a monthly rate of -1% in July, the largest drop since April 2020.

At present, the market expects a 44% probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points in September and a 55% probability of a 75 basis point rate hike. The European Central Bank is expected to adopt unprecedented tightening policy on Thursday, 30 of 61 economists said the ECB will raise interest rates by 75 basis points on September 8, 27 economists said it will raise interest rates by 50 basis points, 4 It said it would raise interest rates by 25 basis points. According to the ECB, European consumers expect inflation to be at 5% in the coming year, and economic growth expectations for the year ahead fell to -1.9% from -1.3% in June, the lowest level since November 2020. At present, the problem facing the European Central Bank should be more difficult than that of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve can slow down the economy and lower inflation, but the European Central Bank also has to consider the energy crisis, so no matter how much the rate hike is, it will cause great volatility.

Let’s take another look at this week’s crypto events:

The encrypted Launchpad platform DAO Maker will launch the V2 version on September 5, and will launch the Move-to-Earn project Sweatcoin token sale, which will sell a total of $2 million worth of tokens.

The NFT mortgage lending protocol BendDAO BIP#10 is scheduled to launch a vote on the 75% liquidation threshold on September 6th.

The target date for the Bellatrix upgrade is Sept. 6, launching when Epoch reaches 144896, ethereum core developers said on the ethereum foundation’s conference call.

Gitcoin’s 15th round of donations is scheduled for September 7-22, and grantees have until September 3 to submit project information.

Voyager Digital is expected to hold a sales hearing on September 8.

NEAR's Stake Wars III is scheduled to end on September 9, and NEAR said the Chunk-Only Producers feature was released to the testnet on August 15 ahead of the planned launch of Phase 1 of sharding next month and will create more More chances to earn rewards and further protect the NEAR ecosystem, the number of validators will also increase from about 100 to about 300.

Scalable application-specific execution layer AltLayer Network hosts the decentralized real-time strategy game Dark Forest based on the zero-knowledge proof technology zkSNARKS, which is planned to be held from September 9, 2022 to September 11, 2022 (that is, 48 hours) ) during a community round of the Dark Forest game, at the end of the game the top 20 players on the leaderboard will receive an AltLayer OG badge.

Web 3 decentralized metaverse project X Protocol has announced that its X NFT Market will go live on September 10th.

Crypto Pulse’s second-quarter report shows that despite the market entering a bear market, most Americans remain very bullish on crypto assets. Americans’ trust in crypto assets rose the most from 61% in the first quarter to 73% in the second quarter, followed by Brazil (77%), Mexico (70%) and Chile (69%) %); on the other hand, the trust score of retail investors from Atlantic regions such as Europe and the United Kingdom fell to 52% from 54% in the previous period; Canada is the only country where the trust in cryptocurrencies will fall below 50%, The main concern is the lack of cryptocurrency education. Also, in the U.S. alone, about 61 percent of retail investors invested in cryptocurrencies in the second quarter, up 42 percent from the first; from an institutional perspective, nearly 70 percent of U.S. institutions said they had invested in their respective Clients recommend cryptocurrencies. It is understood that the Crypto Pulse research covers more than 28,000 retail and institutional traders from 23 countries.

U.S. Rep. Brad Sherman, chairman of the Investor Protection Subcommittee, said in an interview that Congress won’t introduce a crypto ban anytime soon, because the crypto industry provides a lot of campaign and lobbying donations and there are too many power entanglements behind it. He believes that in the absence of a ban, cryptocurrencies should be regulated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). “Cryptocurrencies should be regulated by the SEC due to their size, expertise, aggressive enforcement actions, and similarity to stocks or securities.”

South Korea's LG Group released an NFT marketplace called LG Art Lab, which is based on the distributed ledger platform Hedera Hashgraph. Users can combine LG's mobile encrypted wallet Wallypto to buy, sell and display Hedera NFTs on TV through software. The technology is developed by Nifty Gateway provides support.

[Bitcoin market analysis] Bitcoin's weekly level, combined with binance and coinbase, last week's closing line was accompanied by heavy volume at the bottom. Of course, binance is exaggerated, and the bottom of CB is more realistic, although the volume is not large , but considering the data of the past few months, it is still OK. After nearly 10 months of weekly decline, the current weekly line is expected to come out of a double bottom structure. The previous bottom was confirmed at 19,000 in mid-June this year. Then this is the second re-confirmation. If it is supported by the weekly level, then the market outlook is expected to start a rebound mode. If it is not supported for a long time, then there is a high probability that it will be recognized by the market in the form of a pin to gain support.

At the 4-hour level, there are currently 4 effective supports. After the market directly fell below the previous strong support of 21,000 on August 27, it did not continue to fall after hitting the lowest level of 19,500. Instead, it continued to challenge near this position and walked out of 4 In the form of secondary effective support, the market will panic after falling below the previous long-term support, which will trigger a continuous sell-off wave and cause the price to continue to fall. However, the current trend is not like this. The market is already relatively low. Second, after 10 months of continuous decline and turmoil, the unstable chips have been accepted by the market. Therefore, if there is no major external negative in the current position, it is difficult to continue to decline. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate and rebound upwards. Signs, but don't expect too much, because the macro level is not optimistic throughout September.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, put an end to the full-cow stud, and refuse loan leverage.