Powell's dilemma, telling the truth hurts the market, and polite words will be misunderstood!

hot spot

The entire financial market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting tonight, but it is really hard to guess whether Powell is an eagle or a dove this time, because the last fomc meeting will remain highly tightened despite what Powell said, only However, when there is clear evidence of lower inflation, the Fed will consider moderately slowing the pace of interest rate hikes​. With so many preconditions, the market only saw the last sentence, forcibly interpreting Powell's words as dovish, and then the three major markets of stocks, bonds and currencies collectively reveled. So it’s hard to guess what Powell’s speech this time. If it’s expected, Powell’s speech will definitely be the same as the above, but now the market only picks up good-sounding ones, which is not conducive to the automatic shielding of the market, which may seriously trouble Powell, so It’s hard to say that Powell will stop practicing Tai Chi tonight, and if he doesn’t mention a single word of dovish, then the market will not understand it wrong. Of course, this is also the worst result, but the probability is indeed not small, because if Powell this time If the pigeons are released again, the US financial environment will be more relaxed. The Fed raising interest rates is equivalent to adding loneliness. There have been many times in history to reduce inflation by raising interest rates. The rebound has come back, so I think Powell is unlikely to release pigeons tonight. Overall, the market should not be very good tonight.

Let’s talk about the predictions of future interest rate hikes by major institutions. Although Goldman Sachs predicted yesterday that Powell will maintain a hawkish speech at the annual meeting tonight, Goldman Sachs still expects the FOMC to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes to 50 basis points in September, and in November and December The slowdown to 25 basis points was in line with Powell's support for the June dot plot in his July press conference. If circumstances warrant more aggressive tightening by the FOMC, Goldman Sachs believes the Fed would rather raise rates multiple times by 50 basis points in September and beyond than raise rates by another 75 basis points. In addition, Goldman Sachs' latest outlook on the U.S. economy said "there is a 30% chance of a recession next year, although any recession is likely to be mild."​

U.S. Commerce Department data on Thursday showed that GDP fell 0.6 percent on an annualized basis in the second quarter when adjusted for inflation, although gross domestic income, another lesser-known official measure of economic growth, rose 1.4 percent in the second quarter. With a 1.8% rise in the first quarter, the government's main measure of U.S. economic growth pointed in different directions in the first half of 2022, providing the basis for further debate about the health of the economy. St. Louis Fed's Bullard said yesterday that recessions are not so predictable.

​The Ethereum Foundation confirmed the upgrade and merge time, which is divided into two parts, "Bellatrix and Paris". The Bellatrix upgrade will be on September 6, and the Paris upgrade will be triggered on September 10-20 to complete the 2.0 merger. The official confirmation time has been confirmed many times, and the upgrade reliability is very high. Each trading platform also issued an announcement about the suspension of transfers of Ethereum ERC20 tokens around September 15, in order to cooperate with the upgrade. Yesterday there was also news that the merger would be completed as soon as September 9th, but today Binance also announced September 15th, so it should prevail.

Let’s take a look at the crude oil market, which is often in the opposite trend to crypto. The crude oil market has been trending relatively well in the past week. WTI crude oil has risen from a low of 87 to the current $95. This is related to the unfavorable negotiations with Iran and the fact that OPEC is considering cutting production. Looking at the impact of crude oil on inflation is very direct, and inflation is closely related to the Fed's tightening policy, so the news of the crude oil market should also be focused.

The NFT market has shown signs of recovery in the past few days. Although the transaction volume has not increased significantly, the floor price of blue-chip PFP is rising secretly. For example, azuki, which fell below 6 a few days ago, has risen to 8.3ETH today. The floor of BAYC The price also stands at 70ETH again. It can be seen that the price of blue-chip PFP is still supported under the background of the bear market. If you dig deeper, you may find investment opportunities. For example, the floor price of doodles fell to the lowest point a few days ago. It was also higher than azuki 1ETH is now lower than AZUKI. Of course, this may be related to Chow Tai Fook’s entry, but there should be arbitrage opportunities here, and you can dig for yourself​.

Quotes

BTC: Since the fall on August 19, there have been 6 days of continuous weak consolidation. Such a trend is actually very dangerous. If Powell’s speech is slightly unfavorable tonight, it is likely to continue to fall with the US stock market. As for the bottom support area, the daily The line level is probably around 19000, so the speech at 22 o'clock tonight should be highly concerned.

At the 4-hour level, the weak adjustment has not formed a rising channel, so be cautious. If it falls near 21,000 again, there is a high probability that it will continue to decline and test the support position near 19,000.

ETH: Although the merger of Ethereum is imminent, it has to bow to reality. After all, Powell is likely to make a hawkish speech tonight. The expected trend of the entire financial market is not good, so ETH can’t be alone. I expect the rest of August In the past few days, Ethereum should be more affected by the broader market and the macro market, but entering September, especially when the Ethereum merger event is approaching, Ethereum should have an independent market. In addition, I have always been optimistic about ETH in the medium and long term.

[Disclaimer] The above content does not constitute any investment advice. According to the relevant documents of the "Risk Warning on Preventing Illegal Fund Raising in the Name of [Virtual Currency] [Blockchain]" issued by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and other five departments in August 2018, please Look at the blockchain rationally, and don’t blindly trust others. The digital asset market is extremely volatile and risky, and you need to be highly cautious when entering the market.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, put an end to the full-cow stud, and refuse loan leverage.