If Binance is stolen, will it trigger an epic crash?

hot spot

At two o'clock in the morning tonight, the Federal Reserve will announce the minutes of the July FOMC monetary policy meeting. The minutes of this meeting should focus on raising interest rates in September and the estimated interest rate level at the end of the year. It is the most important meeting before September. The market estimates that the rate hikes in September, November, and December will be 50, 25, and 25, respectively. Let’s see if there is any deviation from the meeting tonight. If there is a deviation, then the U.S. stock market and currency market will fluctuate violently tonight. Everyone Just be aware of the risks.

Speaking of U.S. stocks, the three major U.S. stock indexes all rose to varying degrees last night. In fact, the U.S. stocks have been trending very well in recent weeks. If you look at the comparison of the trends of the S&P 500 and Bitcoin in the past two weeks, you will find that the U.S. stocks have clearly outperformed the currency market. At the same time, the price of crude oil continues to fall, which makes everyone more confident in fighting inflation. However, although inflation is highly correlated with oil prices, oil prices have often fluctuated violently in history, and food prices are still continuing to rise. Therefore, Once oil prices return, inflation may return, so it is difficult to say whether the upward momentum of US stocks can continue.

This afternoon, Binance issued an announcement saying that the withdrawal of coins was suspended due to technical reasons of third-party wallets. There was a panic in the market, and many rumors of Binance being stolen were released. Ann issued another announcement saying that the withdrawal of coins has been resumed. This crisis is over. Although it is said that the probability of a major accident on a platform as big as Binance is not high, it was before large institutions such as celius, terra, and Three Arrows Capital went into trouble. We didn’t believe it before, but there were indeed thunderstorms later, so even Binance should not be trusted 100%. We didn’t expect personal usdc to be frozen before. The current currency circle organization is not as good as we imagined. It is safe to store encrypted assets with large positions or that will not be traded for a long time. It is better to put them in a hardware wallet. You can also put them in your personal wallet without a hardware wallet. ​As long as you master the private key of the encrypted assets, you are your own. of.

This afternoon, Ethereum officials released a series of notes about the potential misunderstandings that the Ethereum Pos merger could lead to. Compared with the rumors that the currency was stolen, I think this explanation is the main reason for the market decline today. This explanation corrects a lot of misunderstandings about the merger, and gives an explanation, they are​:

1. Most nodes on the network do not need to provide any economic resources, and can freely synchronize the self-verified copy of Ethereum without ETH, that is, there is no restriction on the need to pledge 32 ETH to operate a node;

2. Merger is a change of consensus mechanism, not an expansion of network capacity, nor will it reduce gas costs;

3. The speed of Layer1 will remain basically unchanged;

4. After the merger, Staking withdrawal will not be enabled, and Shanghai upgrade will enable pledge withdrawal;

5. The fee reward/MEV will be credited to the mainnet account controlled by the validator and will be available immediately;

6. For security reasons, the withdrawal rate of stake validators will be limited;

7. According to the latest estimates, the combined Staking APR growth is close to 50%, not 200%;

8. Merge upgrades are designed to transition to PoS and more with zero downtime.

From these explanations, it can be seen that the favorable events such as deflation after the merger, increasing the staking income to 3 times, etc., are actually over-hyped, and these potential benefits do not happen immediately after the merger, and have to wait until The Shanghai upgrade will take place in a few months, and this merger is actually just a conversion of POW to POS, which is not a good event in theory, so today's callback is very reasonable.

Quotes

BTC: The market trend is similar to yesterday, and it is in a weak adjustment state. The 4-hour rebound channel has not been destroyed, so it is necessary to be patient. However, Celsius has obtained the approval of the court to sell the mined bitcoins in the secondary market, which may give the market a boost. It brings a certain pressure, but I believe that the problem is not big, maybe it has already sold out, because I have already posted a data on Twitter before, the inflow of bitcoins from exchanges has always been at a high level, but the price has not dropped significantly. , which shows that the entire market still has a certain capacity to bear pressure, and it is not as fragile as everyone thinks.

At the 4-hour level, the lower support is near 23600 and 22800. If it falls below, it will continue to retrace in depth, and the daily support is near 2200.

ETH: In the afternoon, Ethereum officially released a clarification statement on the merger in September. This statement really cooled the upward momentum of Ethereum. It turned out that the market has been hyping the post-merger deflation + 3 times increase in staking income and other positive events for the currency price. We found that none of these will appear in this merger. In fact, this official announcement has delayed the good news, so ETH will likely continue to weaken in the short term, because the current price has been over-hyped, but considering that In the future, the benefits of forked coins are still there, and the benefits will still be realized after the Shanghai upgrade, so it is still possible to hold ETH in the medium and long term.

EOS: EOS pulled the market today because of the expected hard fork on September 21 and the launch of EOS EVM. However, EOS has not achieved much for so many years. The team has pulled the crotch, and the ecological projects have basically run out. Now the bear market can only hype down. The concept of fork, so in fact, EOS can no longer compete with other new mainstream L1 public chains, so I suggest taking advantage of this time to clear or lighten up positions. The risk of chasing up is definitely greater than expected. Profitable, not recommended.

[Disclaimer] The above content does not constitute any investment advice. According to the relevant documents of the "Risk Warning on Preventing Illegal Fund Raising in the Name of [Virtual Currency] [Blockchain]" issued by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and other five departments in August 2018, please Look at the blockchain rationally, and don’t blindly trust others. The digital asset market is extremely volatile and risky, and you need to be highly cautious when entering the market.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, put an end to the full-cow stud, and refuse loan leverage.