Inflation peaked, is the crypto winter coming to an end?

hot spot

I believe everyone knows the CPI data released at 20:30 last night. At 8.5%, the US CPI ended 16 consecutive months of growth. From a numerical point of view, it was lower than the market expectation of 8.7%, and even lower than the previous value of 9.1%. , this is a figure for everyone, especially outside economists. The core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 5.9%, below market expectations of 6.1% and unchanged from the previous reading. Both core and headline CPI came in below expectations, increasing bets on a less aggressive Fed rate hike next month, with traders now seeing a 50bps hike next month as more likely, with a 50bps rate hike by September The probability of a basis point is 57.5%, and the probability of a 75 basis point rate hike is 42.5%.

Following the release of the data, U.S. President Joe Biden said inflation was showing signs of slowing, but more needed to be done to make life easier for consumers. "We're seeing some signs that inflation may be starting to slow, people are still hurting, but inflation didn't pick up in July compared to the previous month," Biden said after a report showed CPI was unchanged in July due to a sharp drop in gasoline costs. .

In addition, San Francisco Fed President Daly also initially hinted at supporting the slowing of the pace of interest rate hikes. His original words are that although it is too early to declare victory over inflation, it is more reasonable to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in September. The federal funds rate should rise to just below 3.5% by the end of the year.

Judging from the market reaction, the price of gold rose sharply after the release of the CPI data, breaking through US$1,800. Then U.S. stocks performed slightly stronger, the Dow rose 1.63%. The S&P 500 rose 2.1%. The Nasdaq rose 2.89%.

During the empty window period in August, the CPI definitely sent an extra benefit to the market, giving the market the motivation and desire to temporarily revel, so it is still similar to the previous judgment. The rebound in August is as always, but everyone should not think that It's a reversal, the market's reversal is not so fast or easy, and the current trend is still a rebound trend, so after reaching a certain height, I think that I want to be safe, and then we will make a judgment when it retraces again. .

The currency circle has been very lively in the past two days. On the one hand, torn is sanctioned, and on the other hand, the SEC has begun to exert force. This is not the case. Recently, it has begun to seriously investigate Coinbase, including reviewing the CB listing system and whether there are other illegal operations. In addition to investigating the CB's In addition, the SEC is also investigating Bitfinex, also because of some compliance qualifications and the well-known USDT issue. As these investigations come to light, I believe that some compliance documents, policies, etc. will be released soon, not this year’s Q4 It will be next year. Of course, this is my personal estimated time point, and there is not much reference basis. When the truly legal and compliant regulatory policy documents are issued, I believe that there will be a substantial impact on the entire currency circle, so We also need to pay more attention to some compliance projects.

Looking at a set of data today, this set of data is quite interesting. It can reflect some information from the side. I think that in the past 24 hours, the number of bitcoins flowing into the exchange was 3,625, and in the past week, the number of bitcoins flowing into the exchange was 478. In the past month, the number of inflows into exchanges was 58,895. That is to say, chips have been flowing into the exchange in the past month, but the market trend has always been a volatile trend and has not continued to fall. This can also reflect the fact that at the current price, the market has completely undertaken part of it. Tossed chips. The number of Bitcoins currently locked in the channel of Lightning Network is 4548. According to the current price, the market value is about 110 million US dollars, which has been hitting new highs, but the development of Lightning Network is indeed too slow.

Cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex may face criminal investigation in the United States, according to a response to a request from the U.S. Department of Justice under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) shared by Twitter user oleh86. It is said that it is because the stable currency usdt has not disclosed its reserves truthfully, and the company itself may have Americans trading on its offshore commodity exchanges. There may be some troubles. While USDT is still in good use, it is better to exchange it for other stablecoins as early as possible.

According to Binance's "Announcement on Supporting the Ethereum Merger Plan", Binance is closely monitoring the "merger" plan expected to be carried out on the Ethereum network in the third/fourth quarter of 2022, which may generate new The forked Token of . Binance will support the Ethereum merger plan. If a new forked token is generated, Binance will evaluate and support the distribution and withdrawal of the forked token. Binance added that all forked coins need to go through Binance's listing review process like other tokens. According to internal policy, Binance will not make any guarantee of listing.

Goerli is the third and final ethereum testnet before the ethereum merger. The Goerli testnet will officially switch once the total ethereum block difficulty reaches 10,079,000, which the developers expect this Friday (August 12) happened sometime before. Framework Ventures co-founder Vance Spencer said that if the Goerli testnet is successfully migrated to PoS, the Ethereum mainnet merger is likely to happen in mid-September.

Projects or platforms currently opposing ETH forks include: Circle, ETC Cooperative, Deribit, DeBank, Argent, Chainlink, Tether, FTX, Aave, NFTScan, etc.

Quotes

BTC: There is no problem that cannot be solved by a big positive line. Bitcoin followed the US stock market with the release of CPI data last night. However, from the perspective of the market trend, it is still very weak. On the contrary, the trend of Ethereum is too strong due to the expected merger. However, from the perspective of the disk, it is still almost meaning to effectively stand at 24000, but after today we can know whether it is really stable. For the market outlook, it is still a rebound trend. The ceiling above the short-term level is around 28000 and 33000. .

At the 4-hour level, it can effectively stand at 24,000. It is currently testing the high point of 24,700 at 20:00 on July 30, and then it will greatly increase the resistance level near 28,000. If it fails to break through 24,700, it will continue to oscillate for repeated verification. near the support level of 22000.

ETH: Ethereum continued to soar and broke through the 1900 integer mark. At present, ETH is still in a stable upward channel. This wave of market is very hopeful to break through 2000 dollars. The reason is as I have said many times before, the interest rate hike in August The vacuum period, the expected merger and fork in September, and the better-than-expected CPI data last night, so Ethereum is still in a state of being ready to ride this month.

NEAR: Last night, coinbase added near to the listing roadmap, which means that near will be listed on cb soon, but the news of near listing cb should not be a secret to investors, so yesterday was symbolic The recent comprehensive trend is not as good as that of Ethereum, and it is said that the developers of the NEAR project have left a lot, and the ecological construction of defi and nft is not ideal, so long-term holding still needs to be carefully considered.

FLOW​: Recently, FLOW has a lot of volume, and its current volume has reached the level of the second mainstream currency. In addition, the recent cooperation with meta and the content director of meta have moved to dapper labs. This series shows that the breaking value of FLOW is becoming more prominent. , and FLOW also explained why it can become the first NFT public chain supported by Instagram, the reason is that flow has been building a web 2.5 wallet, email or google login is easier for outsiders to accept, and the ability to choose token custody and self-custody is also It is in line with the user habits of non-encrypted people. In addition, FLOW has potential benefits to look forward to in the future. First, the cooperation of opensea, then the World Cup in November, and finally the integration of flow with dapper wallet, and a series of usage scenarios for flow. Including the purchase of NFT and liquidity mining, etc. In short, after this wave of breakthroughs, FLOW has a very low probability of death, and is very suitable for long-term projects.

[Disclaimer] The above content does not constitute any investment advice. According to the relevant documents of the "Risk Warning on Preventing Illegal Fund Raising in the Name of [Virtual Currency] [Blockchain]" issued by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and other five departments in August 2018, please Look at the blockchain rationally, and don’t blindly trust others. The digital asset market is extremely volatile and risky, and you need to be highly cautious when entering the market.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and the risks are extremely high. Please participate with caution, put an end to the full-cow stud, and refuse loan leverage.